Confirmation of exchange rate forecasts in 2015-2017

2015

Forecast for 2015 (published on 30.7.2015)

Prediction: after August 25, 2015. – The dollar will begin to strengthen markedly against all currencies.

Confirmation:

Using the euro/dollar example – the dollar’s strengthening against the euro after August 25, 2015 is confirmed:

24.8.2015 euro/dollar – 1.1582, 25.8.2015 euro/dollar – 1.1517, 27.8.2015 euro/dollar – 1.1247, 4.09.2015 euro/dollar – 1.1149, … by 1.12.2015 euro/dollar -1.0625, … by 1.1.2016 euro/dollar -1.0858.

Overall, the euro/dollar exchange rate declined by 10.25% over 2015. There was a corresponding strengthening of the dollar against the euro.

Using the dollar to ruble ratio as an example – confirming the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble after August 25, 2015:

24.8.2015 1 dollar – 68.1216 rubles, 25.8.2015 1 dollar – 70.7465 rubles (+2.62), subsequent strengthening of the dollar, … by 1.01.2016 1 dollar -72.9299 rubles.

Actual decline of the ruble against the dollar during the year:

exchange rate at the beginning of the year: 1 dollar – 56.2376 rubles; rate at the end of the year: 1 dollar -72.9299 rubles.

2016 YEAR

One Step Ahead 11.12.2015 (4 issues)

Prediction: 2016 dollar is relatively stable and more inclined to strengthen.

Confirmation:

Euro/dollar exchange rate for 2016 declined by -3.14%, i.e. there was a strengthening of the dollar against the euro.

Forecast: February – March 2016 – tangible difficulties for the ruble

Confirmation:

The average value of the dollar in 2016 was 66.8335 rubles.

In confirmation of S.Dragan’s forecast, from January to March 2016 the dollar value (in rubles) exceeded this average value: 1.01.2016 – 72.9299 rubles, 22.1.2016 – 83.5913 rubles, in February fluctuated from 75.0903 rubles to 79.4951 rubles, in March from 67.6076 rubles to 75. 8994 rubles.

TASS-Dossier. March 2, 2016. The Bank of Russia (CBR) set the official euro exchange rate below the RUB 80 mark on March 3 for the first time since the beginning of the year. The dollar fell in price to 73.63 rubles. Thus, after a sharp fall in January, the ruble exchange rate practically returned to the positions of the beginning of the year only by April 2016.

Prediction: Until the end of March 2016 – weakening of the euro.

Confirmation:

By the end of the first decade of February 2016 (10.02.2016), EUR/USD was at 1.1255, but thereafter a weakening of the euro occurred as predicted. In March, the euro/dollar ratio was lower at 1.1255: 1.03.2016 euro/dollar – 1.0868, 4.03.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1007, 27.03.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1164.

Prediction: July, September, December – Euro strengthening.

Confirmation:

As already noted in 2016 there was a strengthening of the dollar against the euro – the euro/dollar exchange rate fell by – 3.14%. At the same time, despite the general trend, the euro tried to periodically regain at least partially its positions. Thus, its private rises were noted: in July – 31.07.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1180 (while 30.06.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1102), in September – 11.09.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1233 (while 30.08.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1184), in December – 5.12.2016 euro/dollar – 1.0763 (while 30.11.2016 euro/dollar – 1.0595).

A Step Ahead #6 (3.4.2016)

Prediction: May 20, 2016 – the dollar may produce growth miracles.

Confirmation:

The dollar’s appreciation against the euro is confirmed by the following: while the average rate for May was euro/dollar – 1.1298, on May 1, 2016 euro/dollar was – 1.1464 and on May 17, 2016 euro/dollar was – 1.1312, from May 18 to May 31, 2016 there was a strengthening of the dollar against the period of early May 2016:

18.5.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1218; 20.5.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1223; 23.5.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1219; 27.5.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1112; 29.5.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1115; 31.5.2016 euro/dollar – 1.1131.

The forecast is confirmed by the data on the growth of the dollar against the ruble in the period from May 19 to May 21, 2016:

18.5.2016 г. 1 dollar – 64.5138 rubles, 19.5.2016. 1 dollar – 65.0641 rubles (+0.55), 20.5.2016. 1 dollar – 66.211 rubles (+1.15), 21.5.2016. 1 dollar – 66.3775 rubles (+0.17).

2017 YEAR

Brief economic commentary on 2017 for Snob Magazine (October 26, 2016)

Prediction: August 21, 2017 will see a solar eclipse, which significantly affected the ruble in 1999. This time cardinal changes in the ratio of the ruble to the euro, the dollar.

Confirmation:

For August 2017, the exchange rate of the dollar to the Russian ruble decreased by 1.3327 rubles to 1 dollar: 1.08.2017 1 dollar – 60.0633 rubles, 31.08.2017 1 dollar – 58.7306 rubles, ie there was a change in the ratio of the ruble and the dollar.

Forecast: from 20.01.2017 strengthening of the dollar against the ruble.

Confirmation:

On the eve of 20.01.2017 the dollar was weakening: 18.01.2017. 1 dollar – 59.4015 rubles (- 0.21), 19.01.2017. 1 dollar – 59.183 rubles (- 0.22).

Since 20.01.2017 dollar strengthening: 20.01.2017 1 dollar – 59.3521 rubles (+ 0.17), 21.01.2017. 1 dollar – 59.6697 rubles (+ 0.32).

Source of the program “One Step Ahead” issue #9 (8.02.2017)

Prediction: … That said, 7.06.2017 is a tangible problem for the dollar

Confirmation: – see below the text in the source “One Step Ahead” issue #10.

Sourcebook of the program “One Step Ahead” issue #10 (recorded in early April 2017).

Prediction: … And around 7.06.2017, the dollar may temporarily go down against the euro …

Confirmation:

From the beginning of the year until mid-May 2017, there was a gradual strengthening of the euro against the dollar. Then for almost a month, from mid-May to June 7, 2017, the euro/dollar ratio held roughly flat within the euro/dollar range at 1.090.

From 7.6.2017 actually until 10.09.2017. “had problems” with the dollar – a temporary decline in the dollar against the euro began. As of 10.09.2017 euro/dollar -1.2017. Thereafter, the ratio until the end of the year (until 31.12.2017) fluctuated approximately evenly at the same level within the range of 1.1750 -1.2000.