Event horizon

Introduction

Good day, friends.

I would like to tell you a little about my new publication, in which I analyze the most immediate processes that will take place literally in the remaining days of November 2025 and touch upon the period up to mid-December 2025.

The fact is that all the ongoing processes, especially in military matters, look as though they are drawing to a close—certainly encouragingly, emphatically, and so on. Nevertheless, I would like to explain in somewhat more detail what will happen, what everything will turn into, how the leaders of countries well known to us will feel, and the current processes in general, including motives related to economic issues and, of course, political ones.

Those who have listened to and read me for a long time know “The Distant Horizon” and know how this storyline will fit into that “Distant Horizon.” Nevertheless, I think it will be useful to learn how events will unfold in the near future. This will help us respond more soberly to the ongoing processes, statements, and sometimes surprising developments.

Sometimes it becomes useful to understand economic trends, because economic trends can now be extremely inadequate. One trend that, for example, will remain in effect until the end of November 2025 will be replaced by a completely different trend at the end of November and the beginning of December 2025. And since economic events will develop rather turbulently, you will be able to observe a great deal and understand the cause-and-effect relationships behind all actions, including military ones.

Well, I wish you balance and, of course, a good time and an understanding of the processes that give you calmness, sound judgment, and rationality in your actions. All the best to you!

Main Forecast

The Near-Term Horizon of Events

All media attention is now focused on the fighting in Pokrovsk and beyond. And it seems that the circle is about to close. Although from my longer-term forecasts you know, in general terms, how events concerning Ukraine will develop, I will still say a little about the immediate situation in this regard.

So, I will say right away that a major defeat will already be evident by November 9, 2025. This defeat will put an end to things and become pivotal in the history of Ukraine, as the concluding factor in its integrity. But the information environment will still be extremely inadequate. And the truth will still have to be fought for. And Putin will be urged toward the negotiation process closer to November 28, 2025. At the same time, Trump will still be playing at threats by November 10, 2025. Although these will be openly provocative steps, nothing more. He may put on anger and a hard-line stance. And all this will look more like dragging out all current processes than real steps toward solutions in the situation that has arisen.

Until the beginning of December 2025, no straightforward constructive solution to these issues is expected. At least, only around December 6–7, 2025 will Zelensky’s defeat and recognition of this fact continue to be delayed. But by those dates, his situation will become critical. True, we have already observed this critical state more than once, when the end of the military operation and Zelensky’s downfall seemed close. Still, revolutionary sentiments aimed at overthrowing Zelensky may be greatly intensified at this time.

By November 28, 2025, there will be an attempt to suspend all processes related to Russia’s powerful advance. Moreover, Ukraine will be almost completely without electricity and depleted of strength. The entirely everyday issue of supplying heat to this region will become a major problem.

But the picture will be very complex, since the eclectic nature of the process is such that by November 22, 2025, a new form of Ukraine’s activation in military matters will already be in preparation. One can also assume an attempt to reinforce Ukraine’s military forces. Moreover, this will even look strangely ambitious on the part of the Ukrainian leadership.

And the overall current course of events—by the end of November and beginning of December 2025 —may look like a change in political trajectory. As if, despite the obvious victories of the Russian Army, they would suddenly want to steer the situation back toward a pseudo-peaceful course, proposing negotiations as a way to delay the overall defeat of the collective West. And in this scenario, one of the temporal points for changing the current scenario promises to be around November 29, 2025, as I already mentioned. Especially since by then an economic crisis—or rather, its clear prerequisites—may begin to emerge. They will be accompanied by particularly pronounced actions in the sphere of technology, new digital approaches, and attempts to rearm with new promising types of weapons. All this will take place against the backdrop of revolutionary currents in all areas of political life.

Russia at the end of November 2025 will be offered compromises, as well as attempts to return once again to the negotiation process. And around December 7, 2025, Trump may be inclined toward a new step toward peace talks and special friendliness, and this may even look excessively soothing. But we should not forget that all this is for his new super-plan, as he will see it, which will be loudly announced around December 10, 2025.

Everyone will feel the destructive omens of the former economic system, as it will malfunction in all its segments, and each side will try to cope with this by building its own plans for economic partnership and strategies. Against this backdrop, Russia may return to the topic of BRICS again closer to December 10, 2025. The agenda may include returning to plans for financial restructuring and freeing itself from former economic ties to the previous global financial order.

But no stable systemic signs are yet visible. All this will look more like bustle before the coming upheavals. At the same time, as is customary, the United States will behave more confidently than anyone else—or rather, more self-confidently.

And, for example, Germany, sensing by mid-December 2025 an approaching economic collapse, may, contrary to logic, continue to ambitiously declare the strengthening of its military positions. At the same time, near December 12–14, 2025, all signs of a deep catharsis in Germany will be evident. Both the escalation of military rhetoric and a desperate movement toward military aggression will be weapons of salvation from the approaching economic and social crisis.

A wave of turbulence will also reach Hungary. I cannot state this with certainty, but near December 11, 2025, there is a potential danger for Viktor Orbán.

And Trump’s favorite thing, when such turbulence sets in—he always has a “plan,” or even two plans)).

Macron will be balancing during these times, lacking a clear plan of action and seeming to be disoriented.

So, in the near future, we will most likely see this kind of picture of events. And those who have been reading me for a long time know what the horizon of more distant events is like. But sometimes analyzing the current situation makes it possible to focus the “lens” more precisely and clarifies not only the course of events, but also the true motives of those who are the main players in this situation.