A crushing blow to the Ukrainian regime. Second half of October 2026
Forecast: “The future of the main players. The near and somewhat more distant horizons” (published July 14, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
And the autumn of 2026 may confuse many who are awaiting final changes. Russia will still seek to demonstrate its strength, especially around October 15, 2026. This will be a moment of demonstrative strengthening of the military sector…
Forecast: “What emerged in connection with the arrival in Russia of CIA Director Ratcliffe. Geopolitical trends of autumn 2026” (published September 1, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
…by around October 20, Russia may deliver one of the most crushing blows to the Ukrainian regime…
…By around October 20, 2026, Russia has strengthened significantly, and this largely clarifies matters, hinting at a new political and rhetorical trajectory…
Massive strikes on Ukraine’s military-industrial complex will continue, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in mid-October 2026.
During a visit to an auxiliary command post of the Joint Group of Forces, the Russian leader announced operational data on troop advances.
He reported that since January, approximately 310 settlements and an area of about 6,500 square kilometers have come under control. The president emphasized positive changes in advances along the front line.
In particular, the head of state indicated that the entire territory of the Luhansk People’s Republic is controlled by the Russian armed forces.
Amid the actual inaction of Ukraine’s air defense system, “…by around October 20, Russia had delivered one of the most crushing blows to the Ukrainian regime”: exports of any products from Ukraine by sea were halted; the metallurgical industry ceased operations completely; strikes on all bridges intensified, effectively destroying the country’s logistics; strikes began to be carried out against data centers. The entire territory of Ukraine, especially its western part, came under attack: Rivne, Lviv, Uzhhorod, and other cities previously considered relatively safe.
For example, the Ukrainian retail chain “Epicenter,” used in part for military purposes, was completely destroyed over three months of Russian strikes, the company stated. Within one day, October 24, 2026, the last four warehouses in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Vinnytsia, and Poltava were destroyed. Russia’s Defense Ministry repeatedly reported strikes on the chain’s facilities used for the needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Against the backdrop of “…Russia demonstrating its strength, the strengthening of the military sector, especially around October 15, 2026…”, the Kyiv regime faced serious problems with those who had provided it with military-technical and other assistance throughout all these years.
On Wednesday, October 14, 2026, several Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky himself, reported that the American side had stopped providing Kyiv with intelligence data and had also limited the operation of Starlink terminals.
The restriction of the U.S. satellite system Starshield—a SpaceX service for government and military customers—in Ukraine led to the loss of dozens of Ukrainian Armed Forces drones worth more than one million dollars, The New York Times writes.
At the same time, the American side denied Kyiv’s accusations. Earlier, a number of foreign media outlets wrote that Washington had threatened Ukrainians with possible consequences if they refused to stop striking Russia’s energy infrastructure.
Russian presidential special representative for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, Kirill Dmitriev, commented on the U.S. authorities’ actions toward Ukraine and the head of the Kyiv regime, Volodymyr Zelensky, with the words “checkmate.”
On social network X, the special envoy commented on a post by a user who wrote about panic in Brussels and Kyiv amid U.S. President Donald Trump’s ban on letting the head of the Kyiv regime, Volodymyr Zelensky, play “war games.”
“Checkmate,” Dmitriev wrote.
On the night of October 17, 2026, The New York Times wrote that relations between Trump and Zelensky were on the verge of collapse. It is emphasized that their quarrel will be a blow to Ukraine.
According to experts, Ukraine faces a catastrophe in winter. In connection with this, Ukrainians are fleeing the country. Multi-kilometer queues have formed at border crossing points.
The European Union and the leaders of leading European countries, understanding the hopelessness of the Kyiv regime’s situation, are once again trying to stop the Kremlin by urging it toward ceasefires that impose no obligations on the West. These pauses, apart from providing time to restore the combat capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, do not contribute to the conclusion of a full-fledged, long-term “eternal” peace.
S. Dragan forecasts:
Russia will strengthen significantly, and this will largely clarify matters, hinting at a new political and rhetorical trajectory. This will strengthen the country’s military potential and somewhat alter the economic factor in Russia’s favor…
To be continued…
