New restoration-related expenditure plans in the Russian economy

Forecast: "Outlines of the Global Future" (Published February 9, 2026, link)

S. Dragun:

Early March 2026... the obviousness of significant tension in the economy... something will have to be rebuilt from scratch. This is likely to be new plans for recovery spending as a result of the war. This will also put additional pressure on the Russian economy...

Previously, in the Confirmation of April 6, it was noted that there was an "obviousness of significant tension in the economy" of Russia in the first quarter of 2026.

However, in the following weeks - in mid-April - a series of significant events further confirmed S. Dragun's forecast.

One of these, and quite significant, was the 10th Moscow Economic Forum held on April 7-8, 2026, in the Digital Business Space on the theme: "From Cooling - to Development. What and When to Do?"

The theme of the Jubilee MEF itself set the goal of the event - "Something will have to be rebuilt from scratch."

Organizers and participants of the Forum acknowledged that it took place against the backdrop of an increase in crisis phenomena in our economy after several years of steady growth.

MEF participants include high-level officials, entrepreneurs, and experts.

The Institute of Economic Planning of the Russian Academy of Sciences estimated the decline in gross domestic product for the first quarter of 2026 at 1.5%.

Over the ten years of the Moscow Economic Forum, a completely different vision of economic development has been developed.

And this time, the discussion was about the need to "start rebuilding something."

Ideas expressed by MEF experts are already entering the government discourse, gradually replacing the dogmas of previous decades. According to them, the cabinet is no longer afraid of the words "industrial policy," "protectionism," "new industrialization." Moreover, the current geopolitical reality sets Russia other tasks - to grow as a self-sufficient civilization rather than trying to fit into the Western world.

The current macroeconomic situation in Russia is more complex than in recent years, due to the strong ruble, labor shortages, high rates, and budget constraints. This was stated by the Minister of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, Maxim Reshetnikov, on April 17, 2026, according to TASS.

Business "feels these economic trends most acutely," is the belief of the Minister of Economy.

"And the situation, so to speak, is complicating, including with the tax changes that are currently underway and to which business is forced to adapt," he said.

Reshetnikov emphasized the need to focus on new investments and state support to minimize risks. High interest rates on loans also impact business operations, the minister noted.

In turn, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiyullina, stated that the high key rate has become the "scapegoat." However, according to her, not only this indicator influences the fact that the capital market in Russia is not developing at the desired pace - there are also other fundamental reasons why people with large sums of money are not investing.

On the fact that the dynamics of Russia's macroeconomic indicators are below expectations and forecasts, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted on April 15th. We emphasize that this is the second meeting on this issue in two weeks. Experts consider this, a clear indication of the importance and relevance of the problem.

Speaking at a meeting on economic issues, the President of Russia stated that he would like to hear detailed reports on the economic situation and on the reasons for the gap between actual macroeconomic indicators and forecast values. Putin emphasized that this is not just about diverging from expert expectations but also about unmet forecasts prepared by the government itself and the Central Bank.

Trends that have emerged since the beginning of the year include a decline in GDP: it has fallen by a combined 1.8 percent for two consecutive months.

“I consider it necessary to constantly focus our work on developing concrete measures to stimulate growth, on finding adequate solutions to overcome expected trends that are currently manifesting themselves,” - Putin set the task at the economic issues meeting.

As noted by S. Dragan: "Early March 2026... something will have to be built from scratch... ...new plans for restorative expenditure as a result of the war."

(more on the topic to follow)