Precursors to a military situation. End of summer 2026

September 9, 2026 11 min read

Forecast: Global forecast for July 2026. Part 2 (published July 6, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

Continuing the discussion about July 2026, I want to say… there might be even more slander, a lot of talk about war.

Forecast: «Future of key players. Near and slightly further horizons» (published July 14, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

So, July 2026 promises to be hot. And of course, this is all leading up to a military situation by the 20th of July 2026. But it might be more in a demonstrative, farcical form, with actions coming later. Likely, around August 1, 2026, these threats might sound loud, but for now, they're more farcical and demonstrative.

Incidents in Europe

European countries have long enjoyed the fact that the war in Ukraine has become increasingly active each day, while they, limiting themselves to military aid, have remained relatively safe.

However, in the fifth year of the Ukrainian conflict, the situation began to change dramatically. Unidentified drones are increasingly flying into European countries, and emergency situations are arising at defense industry enterprises that produce weapons for the Kyiv regime for various reasons.

In all these cases, "Western hawks" immediately attempt to blame Russia without evidence.

At the end of July 2026, the Romanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the Russian Ambassador Vladimir Lipayev after three drones were shot down over the country's territory over three days. This was announced by the country's Foreign Minister Oana Ciuv.

The minister presented investigation data according to which the drone shot down over Romania on July 24, 2026, belongs to the "Shahid" type, which the Russian Armed Forces use in the conflict with Ukraine. The investigation into the other two drones is ongoing.

Ciuv emphasized that violating the country's and the European Union's airspace is unacceptable, and the authorities take this very seriously. "Given these repeated violations, the Ambassador of the Russian Federation was summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Romania," she concluded.

On July 26, 2026, an F-16 fighter jet shot down a drone that had violated Romania's air space. Drones had been intruding into the country for the third day in a row.

At the same time, no evidence was presented to prove that the drones belonged to the Russian Armed Forces.

In Poland, on July 30, 2026, a missile was found to have crashed in the eastern part of the country, which authorities, before conducting an expert analysis, declared to be Russian, according to the RIA Novosti news agency.

"At 3:40 (4:40 GMT) an unidentified object was detected moving in a western direction in Polish air space. To identify and intercept it, a standby F-16 fighter jet was dispatched," RIA Novosti quoted a statement from the Polish command.

After the target disappeared from radar screens, a Mi-24 helicopter was sent to search for it, which found the crash site. In a field near the settlement of Tarnawy-Kolonia in the Lublin Voivodeship, a 10-meter-wide crater and debris were discovered. Local media also reported a powerful explosion in the area.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk traveled to Lublin along with the defense minister and emergency service representatives to investigate all circumstances. Tusk promptly declared that the fallen rocket in the Lublin area was allegedly Russian.

"We know what happened. Polish airspace was violated. We are dealing with a serious incident. Everything indicates that this is a Russian X-101 rocket," - quoted him the TVP Info channel.

In Bulgaria, on August 8, 2026, a drone that entered airspace from Romania exploded near the border. According to the preliminary assessment of the Bulgarian Ministry of Defense, the device was likely a Ukrainian drone-imitator. The crash site was only about a kilometer from the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline compressor station. There were no injuries or damage, and authorities emphasized that there are no signs of a deliberate attack at this time.

The Leipzig police headquarters reported on August 5, 2026, that an airport employee discovered a drone with an unknown explosive device in the cargo air transport security zone.

Germany initially considered the possibility of Ukrainian involvement in the drone incident at Leipzig/Halle Airport, according to Zeit.

"Ukraine could be among the suspects. They are adept with drones and could be interested in an operation under a false flag, that is, an attack that would appear to be Russian," the publication states, citing sources.

According to the article, German investigators and interior ministry experts assumed that the staging could have been designed to justify further financial and military aid from Berlin to Kiev.

The Russian Embassy, commenting on the drone incident, expressed concern over a new wave of anti-Russian hysteria in Germany. Diplomats described the incident as a hastily constructed provocation serving the interests of the Kyiv regime and the militarist wing of the European elite. They emphasized that Berlin is not threatened by "hybrid attacks" from Russia, which do not actually exist, but by politicians crafting a war scenario.

However, soon, Germany decided to use the drone incident to address its domestic political issues and accuse Russia of drastically worsening the socio-economic situation in the country, especially during the Merz government's term.

Germany will announce measures in response to the drone incident near Leipzig/Halle airport in the coming days. Berlin's response is already being coordinated with the European Union and NATO, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated in an interview with ARD at the end of August 2026.

As of August 29, 2026, German Chancellor Friedrich Merkel was preparing to announce "comprehensive" anti-Russian sanctions. However, Western journalists speculated that the true aim of these measures was to boost Merkel's domestic political standing.

According to foreign media, elections were scheduled to take place in Germany the following Sunday, with Merkel's party facing off against the leading "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) party, known for its pro-Russian stance. "It is believed that a new wave of anti-Russian rhetoric just three days before the election could damage AfD's position," Politico reports.

Sanctions against Russia could include the expulsion of diplomats and the closure of the Russian House. There were also discussions about new deliveries of heavy weapons to Ukraine.

At the beginning of September 2026, these assumptions were realized, and Berlin accused Moscow in the incident at Leipzig airport. Along with this, the closure of the general consulate in Bonn and the Russian House in Berlin was announced.

Emergency Situations at Defense Enterprises

With a course towards sharp militarization and active participation in military aid to the Bandera regime in Kiev, Europe itself found itself at the epicentre of various terrorist attacks and emergencies at its defense enterprises and military warehouses.

In July-August 2026, a series of emergencies related to enterprises producing weapons for Kiev swept through several countries of the European Union.

On August 13, 2026, a powerful explosion occurred at a munitions factory in Colleferro, 60 kilometers from Rome, according to the newspaper Corriere della Sera.

As reported, it was heard in nearby settlements. According to preliminary information, the explosion occurred in a gunpowder pressing workshop. Firefighters and carabineers were already on the scene after a fire report, which broke out shortly before.

According to the capital's newspaper Messaggero, no one was injured. Sources among rescuers told the publication that the incident affected only a section of the facility. For safety reasons, a large outlet mall "Valmontone" was evacuated.

The enterprise is part of the KNDS Ammo Italy group. It produces ammunition of medium and large calibers for land and naval forces, as well as solid fuel for aerospace carriers.

In mid-August 2026, an explosion occurred at a facility in Italy that produces ammunition for the European defense industry. This incident adds to a concerning series of events across Europe, from Bulgaria to Romania and Hungary. Coincidence? Perhaps. But given Vladimir Putin's recent and overt military display on the Kurils, this sequence of events takes on a different light.

Earlier, in August 2025, a fire broke out in a munitions storage room at a facility in Cujd, Romania, leading to multiple explosions. Approximately 400,000 munitions were stored there, with around 130,000 destroyed. Later, investigators found no evidence of sabotage and attributed the fire to improper storage of a large amount of pyrotechnic powder.

Finally, Hungary. In May 2026, an explosion occurred at the MOL chemical plant in Tisaújváros, resulting in one death and several injuries. The company stated that the cause was a leak of hydrocarbons and characterized the incident as an industrial accident without external involvement.

On August 30, 2026, a fire broke out at the WB Electronics facility in Skarżysko-Kamienna, Poland, where they produce drone components and systems. Polish intelligence is investigating the possibility of arson, but the official cause of the fire remains unknown.

BERLIN, September 1, 2026. Unknown assailants launched improvised rocket-propelled grenades with explosives at a power substation of a coal-fired power plant in the community of Jänschwalde, Brandenburg, eastern Germany. This was reported by the Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung, citing its own sources.

According to the publication, several homemade devices were discovered near the power plant, the largest in the region, which operates on coal, and were defused. It is not ruled out that the unknown individuals intended to sabotage the power station and cut off power to block E. However, despite at least one rocket hitting the station, they were unable to achieve their goal.

Russia's Warnings

Russia denies any involvement in these incidents but warns that no one will be allowed to assist the Ukrainian military forces (ВСУ) in striking Russian territory with impunity.

The official spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, stated that Britain will face consequences for aiding terrorist strikes by the Ukrainian military forces. The transfer of data to Kyiv on the creation of Storm Shadow missiles will be equivalent to the British army's participation in the conflict, and then Russia will have the right to strike any military targets of the kingdom, including those outside Ukraine.

There is no talk yet of a coordinated diversionary version in Europe. Moreover, official versions of individual episodes directly point to technological accidents or coincidence. But Europe is increasingly drawn into a military economy, which means the number of potentially dangerous targets is growing along with production volumes.

Although «the West's threats, sounding loud, are largely farcical and demonstrative», they could still pose a serious real threat in the near future. Accusations from the West regarding Russia over the drone in Leipzig - the beginning of a real war. That is the opinion expressed in an interview with Pavel Zarubin for the IS «Vesti» by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov:

"We found some drone over there. They said, 'It's a Russian drone, no one bothered to investigate.' This, in essence, is the beginning of such a war. They expelled the general consulate from Bonn, announced they had torn up the agreement. The Russian house in Berlin is closing. I remember, before the start of World War II, the Great Patriotic War, rather, the Germans also closed their diplomatic missions."

S. Dragan predicts: