Preparation of a New Provocation Against Iran. October 2026
Forecast: “What Was Foreseen in Connection with CIA Director Ratcliffe’s Visit to Russia. Geopolitical Trends of Autumn 2026” (published September 1, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
And yes, the issue of Iran is a serious one, and it too could have been included in the agenda of the talks. There is reason to suppose that a new provocation against Iran is being prepared. This may include a cunning act of aggression against Iran, … And this plan is seen most clearly around October 4, 2026…
As of early October 2026, it became known that the Iranian government is preparing for new U.S. bombings, which may be more large-scale than the previous ones, Bloomberg reports, citing a representative of the Iranian authorities. At the same time, according to him, Iran has the capacity to respond.
The agency’s source acknowledged that U.S. sanctions and the naval blockade are seriously complicating Iran’s economic situation. According to him, the country is adapting to these realities.
Bloomberg recalls that blocking the Strait of Hormuz remains Iran’s most important lever of pressure. However, as U.S. authorities, a number of media outlets, and observers previously claimed, Tehran’s control over the strait is weakening.
According to Bloomberg, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports rose from 3.4 million barrels per day in August to 6.1 million barrels in September. JPMorgan estimates that 17.5 million barrels per day now come from the Middle East—98% of the level observed before the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran on February 28, 2026.
Earlier, Bloomberg claimed that in September, for the first time since the conflict began, Iran did not load oil onto tankers. At the same time, supplies of the resource to China continue, while trade flows have been rerouted through the Caspian Sea and via overland routes. Reports also emerged in September of delays at checkpoints on Iran’s borders with Turkey and Pakistan.
The Axios portal, citing U.S. officials, has already reported that senior national security advisers to U.S. President Donald Trump held a meeting. It discussed further steps in connection with the war against Iran and the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis in Yemen.
Against the backdrop of stalled negotiations, D. Trump is considering the possibility of resuming large-scale hostilities against Iran. On Thursday, October 1, 2026, he stated that he would have to make a decision: either Iran signs a deal, or it will cease to exist.
Since early October 2026, the United States has been increasingly expanding its presence in the Middle East. Washington is deploying a third carrier strike group and additional Marine Corps units to the region. In total, after the personnel arrive, more than 50,000 service members will be concentrated in the Middle East.
Under such conditions of tense military preparations by the opposing sides, just “one match” is enough for the conflict to flare up with renewed force. And such a pretext could have been the October 1, 2026 incident involving a Flydubai plane carrying Arabs and Jews. This flight immediately took on a political dimension. Given the difficult relations among states in the region, many saw this as a provocation. But from precisely which side remains unclear.
In Israel, they speak of a thwarted terrorist attack—an analogue of “9/11”; in Iran, they suspect Mossad, which allegedly could have arranged everything so that Netanyahu would have a pretext to launch a new attack.
“Israel plans to carry out a ‘false provocation’ in the region, for example, an attack on aircraft or airports, in order to place responsibility for it on Iran,” the Iranian Fars agency said.
The Iranian Fars agency published its article even before the Boeing incident. Immediately after the Israeli prime minister’s statement the day before:
“On the eve of the elections, our enemies will try to attack us. Therefore, from here, from the Air Force base, from the ‘long arm’ of the State of Israel, I send you this message: do not mess with us—not now, not ever,” said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In the final days of September 2026, Netanyahu sent the president of the Arab Emirates new Mossad intelligence, according to which Tehran allegedly is already resuming development of its nuclear program—the very program that became the pretext for massive strikes against Iran.
“He made this visit together with a number of high-ranking figures from the Israeli authorities—Mossad and the Security Council,” said political commentator Noga Tarnopolsky.
Israel has less than a month remaining before parliamentary elections. The ratings of the opposition and the ruling coalition are now equal. A thwarted terrorist attack and protection from an external threat—these could all now work to Netanyahu’s advantage.
“This is part of the election campaign and the propaganda he is using to escalate the situation. And perhaps, in this tense environment, to gain a higher percentage of public trust,” said Yakov Kedmi.
“Upon a more in-depth examination of the details, this incident could develop from an aviation security incident into a political conflict. There is an entire set of factors that could increase the risks of a lack of de-escalation in the Arab-Israeli conflict,” said Igor Semenovsky, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.
Benjamin Netanyahu urgently convened a national security meeting. This means that it will soon become clear whether the Boeing is the match that will once again set Iran, Gaza, and indeed the entire Middle East ablaze.
U.S. President Donald Trump did not rule out the possibility of new bombings of Iranian territory after the congressional midterm elections scheduled for November. Time magazine reported this on October 1, 2026.
The head of state also emphasized that the United States has substantial stockpiles of weapons. He noted that Washington is prepared to provide military assistance to its partners in the region. According to Trump, the United States has plenty of weapons and is ready to share them with its allies.
The conflict that has erupted between the Houthis and Yemen’s government forces is seriously escalating the situation.
Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Presidential Council have launched a military operation against the Houthis.
It is known that Yemen’s government troops will fight on the ground, while Saudi Arabia’s Air Force will provide support from the air. The United States is also contributing by providing Riyadh with satellite intelligence. Six Reuters sources claim that unnamed European countries are supplying Riyadh with unnamed “defensive systems”; this may refer to air defense systems.
And this, to a certain extent, confirms S. Dragan’s further forecast that aggressive provocative actions against Iran are not limited only to early October, but “this plan (of the United States and Israel) is seen most clearly around … November 11, 2026.”
To be continued…
