The situation in Armenia before the elections. End of May
Forecast: "Global World Events in the Upcoming Months" (published on March 18, 2026, link).
S. Dragan:
As for Pashinyan, difficulties in his situation are likely by mid-May 2026, his position appears shaky... By the end of May 2026, the situation in Armenia will be increasingly tense with elements of intolerance...
In addition to the above, the confirmation ahead of the elections on June 7 of that year, through the daily actions of the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikola Pashinyan, provides experts with further grounds to draw conclusions about the fragility of his position.
The main confirmation of the forecast is Pashinyan's desire, particularly evident in April-May of that year, to sit on two chairs: the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union. This is inherently an unstable construct.
With his focus on Europe, Pashinyan stated that the natural gas supplied to Armenia from Russia cannot increase in price for Yerevan. The First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma's International Affairs Committee, Aleksey Chepa, responded to this: "To try to pull both the European Union and the Eurasian Economic Union along-well, that's Armenian cunning.".
Dmitry Medvedev believes that the Armenian Prime Minister is trying to "please everyone in the world." "But that's just not how it works. The chances of 'landing' like the Kiev authorities did in 2014... are growing daily due to economic realities. So it's high time to start negotiations for American liquefied gas deliveries by sea directly to the country's ports!" - the deputy chairman of the Security Council sarcastically notes.
"It's high time to start negotiations on the supply of American liquefied gas by sea directly to the country's ports..." - he wrote.
Economic Restrictions
If gas prices are a matter for the future, then in the present, there are restrictions on the export of Armenian goods to the Russian market due to inadequate quality. From May 22, Rospotrebnadzor imposed a temporary ban on the import of "Jermuk" mineral water and floral products from Armenia. The sale of substandard Armenian alcohol has also been suspended.
Significant discontent in Armenia is caused by N. Pashinyan's violations of democratic principles. According to political analyst Ilya Uhov, Pashinyan's rating stands at 17-18%, while the combined rating of key opposition parties reaches around 46%. Official election results are expected to significantly deviate from the real sentiments of society.
In the republic, any oppositional opinion is effectively banned. N. Pashinyan's main election competitors have been arrested. A court in Yerevan chose arrest as a pre-trial measure for the leader of the "Mother Armenia" party, Andranik Tevanyan, accused of treason.
Kарабakh activist Arthur Osipyan was detained after publicly criticizing the prime minister's policy. Pashinyan lost his temper and shouted: «Why didn't you die in the war?» His arrest on May 18 is seen as an attempt to settle scores with a figure who exposed the prime minister's policy secrets.
On May 18, Pashinyan's election rally ended in a major scandal. A woman accused him of destroying the country. The Prime Minister lost his temper, accused former presidents of cowardice, and promised to "bend and smash everyone." When the woman tried to leave, Pashinyan grabbed her by the sleeve and demanded she stay. "Spoke your mind? Now listen to the answer. First, thank you that they didn't break your head in the nearest bathroom", Pashinyan responded to her.
According to psychologists, N. Pashinyan in his election campaign is becoming increasingly mentally unsound. Where he previously showed his signature gestures in the form of hearts to the public, now he is yelling at everyone around him and having tantrums.
S. Dragan further predicts: «The situation in Armenia may become a turning point… June 2026 could shift events into a more severe format».
