"A 'dot' on Iran's former governance structure (by mid-April 2026)"

Forecast: "Outlines of the Global Future" (published on February 9, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

Regarding Iran. By mid-April 2026, around April 14, 2026, the former power of Iran may... be on the brink of collapse.

Forecast: Iran - Interference of events and forecast of a broader spectrum in the near term (published on March 6, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

As for military actions against Iran, it should be said that by approximately April 14, 2026, the situation in this country may become critical. This is the moment when the planets seem to put a full stop to the former management structure of Iran...

In his forecasts, S. Dragan, including before the start of the war (February 9, 2026), places primary emphasis on the threat to Iran's management structure and the danger to the lives of those who represent the highest levels of power.

Subsequent events confirmed this very danger for Iran. To achieve their goal in their war against Iran, the US-Israel coalition chose what they deemed the "fastest and most effective" method - the destruction of the country's leadership.

(Nikolai Vavilov, April 8, 2026, "Did China Deal a Strategic Blow to the US in Iran? China Expert Nikolai Vavilov")

Prior to the war, Iran's leadership was theoretically divided into several groups: pro-Chinese, pro-Russian, and pro-Western orientations. Washington and Tel Aviv bet on the latter.

At the time, President-elect Ebrahim Raisi, chosen in 2024, immediately announced a closer relationship with the West and an attempt to resume dialogue on lifting sanctions.

At the outset of the war with Iran, the US and Israel attempted, unsuccessfully, to change Iran's leadership, the New York Times reports. This involved planning to release former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from house arrest. To facilitate his escape, a precision strike was made on the politician's apartment.

On the other hand, with the start of the war, the main task of D. Trump and N. Netanyahu was the destruction of leaders with pro-Russian and pro-Chinese leanings.

As of March 21, 2026 - three weeks into American-Israeli strikes on Iran - 15 high-ranking officials of the republic have been killed.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) typically report the deaths of high-ranking Iranian officials. In most cases, the Iranian leadership confirms this information, especially regarding the highest echelons of the Islamic Republic.

It is known that as a result of the strikes on the first day of the operation - February 28 - Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Defense Minister Aziz Naserzade, Head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Mohammad Pakpur, and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Abdulrahim Mousavi were killed.

The largest wave of eliminations occurred precisely on the first day of the American-Israeli operation. The next wave took place on March 17-18 - then Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani, who was Ali Khamenei's closest advisor and de facto governed the country after his death, Basij commander Ghulamreza Solaymani, and Intelligence Minister Ismail Hatif were killed.

Iran's survival price was immense, there is no doubt about that. "The situation in this country became critical". First, there are massive human losses - besides a number of officials, according to official data, Iran has lost around 2,000 people and 26,000 have been injured. Second, Americans and Israelis have been bombing the country virtually unimpeded for over a month. According to the latest CENTCOM (U.S. Central Command) data, American forces have hit over 13,000 targets. Israelis reported that in the course of the operation, they conducted around 800 air strikes with 15,000 shells. What and how much was actually destroyed remains unclear. However, in the first week of April 2026, the Israeli side informed that as part of attacks on Iran's infrastructure, all the country's main steel mills were hit. Iran's steel production capacity, which was the second most profitable export product after oil, was destroyed by 70%. During the military operation, Americans and Israelis also displayed numerous images of destroyed arms factories and facilities capable of producing dual-use products - that is, those that can be used both in civil and military purposes, such as chemical products. It is quite possible that by the beginning of April, Iran's defense industry, as well as various nuclear-related infrastructure, had suffered significant damage.

By mid-April 2026, an unofficial figure emerged - around 40 senior Iranian officials had been killed in strikes by Israel and the US.

Any other country facing such a loss of leaders and a situation critical for its military-economic complex might have trembled.

However, after Iran's 12-day war with Israel in June 2025, Ayatollah Khamenei restructured the decision-making process so that in the event of the removal of one leader, another person would immediately take their place. «After the killings of many generals and politicians, the supreme leader in Iran built a system where there are several backup candidates for each position. If the relevant head dies, candidate number one takes their place, if candidate number one dies, candidate number two takes over, and so on,» an expert explained.

The day before the US-Israeli operation, The New York Times (NYT) reported, citing six high-ranking sources and members of the IRGC, on how Tehran was preparing for the conflict. According to the information, Ali Khamenei established four levels of succession for each military and political position, instructing each leader to appoint up to four successors and delegating decision-making to a small circle of individuals in the event of a break in communication with him or his death.

Under this scheme, a replacement for Ali Larijani was found within two days of his death: on March 19, it was announced that the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council was Hossein Deghan, the former defense minister (2013-2017).

Due to the ongoing conflict with the United States and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, power in Iran is increasingly concentrated in the hands of the leadership of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), according to Reuters, citing unnamed Iranian officials.

According to the agency, the center for making both military and political decisions has become a narrow circle of high-ranking officials, including the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the Office of the Supreme Leader, and the leadership of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). However, sources told Reuters that the country's political and religious elite do not have enough influence to resist IRGC decisions.

«Planets seem to have put an end to Iran's previous management structure」, yet Tehran, despite catastrophic losses in its top leadership, has created a new management system, endured and continues to fight against the US and Israel for its national interests. The war, as of the end of April 2026, was still ongoing.

S. Dragan predicts:

Pressure on this country will intensify closer to May 18, 2026. Although negotiations will continue until the end of May 2026. But they will not satisfy many. Iran's dangerous situation will escalate again closer to the beginning of July 2026. And this is set to last for a long time, at least until spring 2027 for Iran looks critical…

(To be continued)