Struggle for dominance in space
Forecast: “Sketches of the Global Future” (part 1 — February 9, 2026, part 2 — February 13, 2026, link).
S. Dragan:
In the latter part of August 2026, a dangerous phase of a grand struggle for power on a global scale begins, in which the role of space is especially important and critical. This may be connected with the struggle for dominance in space.
Forecast: “The Stars Speak. Forecast for 2026 with Svetlana Dragan” (interview with Andrey Malakhov dated January 13, 2026, link).
S. Dragan:
...And now, … we are entering the era of space, the era of communicating with it…
…Perhaps not all of this will be clear at once, but the point is that the struggle for this global leadership is being fought at the level of space…
“Power on a global scale” is impossible without dominance in space, and the struggle for it between the “global centers of power” intensified in the summer and autumn of 2026.
The struggle for advantages in space exploration unfolded on several fronts at once — and it involves both states and private companies.
The lunar race. This is perhaps the hottest topic. The United States and China remain the main competitors. In the autumn of 2026, NASA revised the plans for the Artemis IV mission: the agency no longer guarantees SpaceX (Starship) the first lunar landing — other options are now being considered as well, such as Blue Origin’s Blue Moon. The goal remains the same — to send people to the Moon in 2028. Other countries — Russia, India, the UAE, and Israel — are also actively joining in: launching lunar stations and studying the Moon’s South Pole, where water ice is present.
Low Earth orbit and satellite systems. Here, competition is underway for control over constellations. SpaceX, OneWeb, Amazon (Kuiper), Russia (“Marathon” within the “Sfera” system), and China are increasing the number of satellites for communications, Earth remote sensing, and other tasks. Whoever gains an advantage in this field will be able to more effectively address Earth observation tasks, provide global internet access, and navigation.
Commercialization and new technologies. Private companies are playing an increasingly important role. Technologies for suborbital tourism (Blue Origin, Virgin Galactic) are developing, while launch vehicles and systems for operating in space are being improved: life support, radiation protection, and robotics. A breakthrough in any of these fields provides a technological advantage.
International cooperation and the rules of the game. At the same time, there is a struggle over how space exploration will be regulated. Countries are signing agreements, such as the Artemis Accords, to establish rules for access to the resources of the Moon and asteroids and to avoid conflicts. In the autumn of 2026, this discourse remains relevant: states are discussing how to divide space peacefully and who will control new technologies.
Infrastructure development. This is not only about rockets. It is also important to build up capabilities in creating orbital stations, technologies for long-duration missions, including radiation protection, and systems for operating in zero gravity.
The struggle for advantages in space exploration is most vividly expressed against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine.
Russia’s space program is currently aimed at eliminating the gap with the United States associated with the advantages Americans have from using the Starlink system.
On August 10, 2026, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, stated that Russia was deploying the Rassvet satellite system — an analogue of Starlink — significantly faster than had been anticipated.
He recalled that in March 2026 Russia had already placed 16 satellites into low Earth orbit, with the goal of creating a constellation of 292 satellites in 2027 and expanding it to 924 satellites by 2035.
Zelenskyy and his associates are aware of all the losses and dangers posed to them by the activation of the Russian space system and are making diplomatic attempts to minimize threats to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Kyiv appealed to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), asking it to exclude the territory of Ukraine from the declared service areas of all beams of the Russian Rassvet satellite networks across all frequency bands. This was stated by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.
The corresponding note was submitted to the ITU Radiocommunication Bureau through Ukraine’s permanent mission to the UN structures in Geneva.
We call on all partners to support our position and take every possible step to block the operation of Rassvet, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha wrote.
In turn, the Ukrainian Armed Forces decided to use “space” themselves for terrorist purposes, striking targets deep inside Russia. In violation of the agreement with Elon Musk, they secretly opened up Starlink terminals and made technical modifications allowing the system to be used for “offensive actions” — strikes deep inside Russia.
On the night of October 14, 2026, restrictions arose in the operation of Starlink satellite communications terminals, which allegedly disrupted several military operations of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. On October 18, 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump of restricting the operation of the Starlink system. He noted that he did not know who exactly in the White House had made such a decision.
American entrepreneur Elon Musk explained why the Starlink satellite network must remain a civilian system.
According to him, Starlink can be used as military infrastructure, but it cannot be used for unequivocally offensive strikes that make it a legitimate target for retaliation. He emphasized that the destruction of Starlink satellites would trigger a domino effect of destruction. It would create an enormous debris field, making space unusable.
The use of Starlink, a civilian commercial system, for offensive drone strikes aimed at killing people has never been permitted and must not be permitted… Starlink is the only system that cannot be jammed or destroyed, at least for now. If Starlink is shut down, the Ukrainian front will collapse immediately. This is NOT a threat, but simply a statement of fact… I feel nothing but COMPLETE CONTEMPT for the hypocritical, malicious warmongers who advocate endless slaughter and offer no realistic solution to the conflict. Burn in hell, Elon posted an enormous message by his standards on X.
The disagreements that arose in October 2026 between D. Trump and E. Musk on one side and Zelenskyy on the other over problems with the use of the Starlink and Starshield systems forced the EU to consider its own similar systems.
The European Commission completed the development of a plan to deploy the sovereign IRIS² satellite communications constellation — the project has embarked on full-scale deployment. Following negotiations that began in January 2026, an agreement was signed between European manufacturers, the European Space Agency (ESA), and other partners.
As a result of the negotiations, it was possible to develop a detailed design for the constellation, a scheme for preparations for the actual construction of satellites, and plans to provide ground infrastructure and launch services. The target price of IRIS² and investments from private investors have been agreed upon. The partner manufacturers agreed to produce and deliver more satellites than originally planned: the constellation will consist of 348 spacecraft, 66 more than under the previous plan.
The additional satellites, ESA noted, will strengthen defense, security, and emergency-service capabilities. “This enhancement will increase governments’ security capabilities by 60% in the EU and by 54% globally, and will also significantly expand Europe’s ability to support critical missions during crises,” the agency explained. The first satellites in the constellation are planned to launch in 2029; services will begin in the same year.
SpaceX’s Starlink constellation comprises more than 10,000 spacecraft, and compared with it, IRIS² in its currently planned form appears negligibly small. But their purposes are fundamentally different: while Starlink was originally conceived as a large-scale commercial broadband network, IRIS² is being created to provide reliable and secure connectivity for government institutions in EU countries, as well as Norway and Iceland. It will operate in emergency response, humanitarian aid, and border control. But in the future, businesses and citizens will also be able to use it — where terrestrial networks are absent or fail to provide reliable communications.
Russia is in close contact with the United States on space issues, including with SpaceX founder Elon Musk, President Vladimir Putin said on October 28, 2026, at the Russia–Africa summit. According to him, issues related to low-orbit satellite constellations are on the agenda.
We are in close contact with our American partners, including Mr. Musk, because in orbit it is very important not to interfere with one another and to observe a certain discipline and order, Vladimir Putin explained.
According to him, Roscosmos and other companies cooperate with American partners despite political disagreements.
Vladimir Putin noted that Russia is now developing an analogue of Starlink — satellites of the low-orbit Rassvet constellation intended to provide broadband internet access.
Elon Musk is a genius, truly a genius. How many such spacecraft does he have in orbit? More than five thousand. And we are only taking our first steps, Vladimir Putin said.
On September 28, 2026, at 15:48 Moscow time, the Starship-Super Heavy system launched from the Starbase spaceport in Texas as part of its 14th test flight. Starship reached orbit for the first time and for the first time delivered a full payload there — 26 Starlink V3 satellites. According to SpaceX, communication was established with all spacecraft.
This Starship flight is a fundamental event for global space exploration. In effect, there has been a transition from the era of expendable and partially reusable systems to fully reusable super-heavy spaceflight. The reusable rocket system, consisting of the Starship spacecraft and the Super Heavy super-heavy launch vehicle, is more than 120 meters tall. It is taller than any other rocket ever built.
On November 5, 2026, Chinese researchers demonstrated precision laser-cutting technology directly in orbit for the first time. The experiment was conducted using equipment installed outside China’s Tiangong orbital station. A laser unit mounted on a robotic manipulator cut a large object with millimeter precision. The equipment was controlled remotely from a distance of several hundred kilometers, evidently from Earth.
Placing lasers in orbit is both progress and a threat. Lasers will make it possible to create orbital stations in space that are unimaginable today and impossible to launch with a single rocket. But they can also become weapons — highly precise and unavoidable. What will China, which does not conceal its testing of lasers in space, choose? The answer remains open.
The developers of Russia’s next-generation transport spacecraft have moved on to autonomous comprehensive testing, and the vehicle is now entering the stage of preparation for flight tests. This was reported on November 5, 2026, by test cosmonaut Mark Serov.
The cosmonaut noted that development is progressing systematically. At the same time, the project participants do not intend to disclose interim results before specific targets have been achieved. The new spacecraft is being created for expeditionary missions and flights at second cosmic velocity. Serov explained that it was developed as part of preparations for the Lunar Program, including flights around the Moon, as well as missions to asteroids and other similar tasks.
Overall, the autumn of 2026 shows that space has become an arena not only for government programs but also for fierce private competition.
At the same time, success depends not only on technology, but also on the ability to build partnerships and shape rules that will make it possible to share the benefits of space exploration.
To be continued…
