An End to the “Viability” of Israel’s Former Governing Elite?

Forecast: “Geopolitical Events of October 2026 and Their Further Development. A Prospective Scenario for Many Major Geopolitical Players” (published October 4, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

…But, one way or another, October 2026 marks the beginning of a countdown, after which a mechanism will be set in motion in a fateful manner, putting an end to the “viability” of Israel’s former governing elite. It often happens that a certain political move can become the trigger for a turn of events behind which significant changes are already underway. Although this will already outline the subsequent series of events with an inevitable finale for Netanyahu…

In confirmation of “A Turn of Events — Significant Changes in Israel” dated November 3, 2026, an initial analysis had already been conducted of the October events related to the crisis of Israel’s former governing elite.

Israel’s parliamentary elections took place on October 27, 2026. Turnout reached 77.7% and became the highest in the past 25 years.

On October 29, 2026, it was reported that the ruling coalition led by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party retained the lead after 100% of the votes were counted. It will receive 53 out of 120 seats. This means that the political alliance was unable to secure a parliamentary majority.

Earlier, Netanyahu was accused in Israel of conducting a “dirty campaign” to undermine the election results. In turn, Netanyahu made similar accusations against his opponents.

After the October 27, 2026 elections, in which his party failed to win the required number of votes, the situation for the current head of government has been deteriorating rapidly.

Another blow to Netanyahu’s position was the Republicans’ loss in the U.S. midterm elections.

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance explained the Republicans’ defeat in the midterm elections by the war with Iran, as well as Washington’s relations with Israel.

As early as late October 2026, Netanyahu stated that Israel needed to prepare for the possibility of harsh international sanctions against the country.

He also suggested that at some point, “tens of billions of U.S. aid for the Ministry of Defense” would stop coming. “That is because America has changed. Not because Israel has changed. It is all over or will be over; it is only a matter of time,” the prime minister said.

While political analysts consider much in Israel’s political life to be highly unpredictable, a serious negative signal for Netanyahu was the president’s decision on whom to task with forming the new government.

On November 8, 2026, following the parliamentary elections, Israeli President Isaac Herzog tasked Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the united opposition and head of the Yashar party, with forming a government.

Eisenkot was chosen because his candidacy was supported by 67 Knesset members. Meanwhile, only 46 parliamentarians backed incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while one faction holding seven seats abstained from voting.

Eisenkot now has 28 days to form a cabinet, with the possibility of extending the deadline by another 14 days. If he fails to accomplish the task during this period, the right to form a government will pass to Netanyahu.

Gadi Eisenkot, leader of the Yashar party, whom President Isaac Herzog officially tasked with forming a government, has launched extensive behind-the-scenes negotiations with the ultra-Orthodox. At the same time, the change bloc led by Eisenkot and Yisrael Beiteinu party leader Avigdor Lieberman has begun a coordinated operation to recruit potential “defectors” from the camp of the right-wing Likud bloc led by Benjamin Netanyahu, who is currently holding numerous emergency meetings to retain control over his own faction.

According to the architects of the new coalition, as soon as Eisenkot succeeds in forming a de facto minority government based on a core of 61 seats, at least 3–4 sitting members of Netanyahu’s party are highly likely to join him.

“This already outlined the subsequent series of events with an inevitable finale for Netanyahu…” But whether they become fatal for the current prime minister or whether the struggle continues will be shown by the beginning of December 2026.

To be continued…