Blocking Cuba and pressuring its leadership

Forecast: "Global World Events in the Upcoming Months" (published on March 18, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

...by May 13, 2026, there will be a situation of severe blocking regarding Cuba's autonomy or self-sufficiency, up to the point of pressure on the leadership... Subsequently, in the second half of May 2026... the situation may develop in a very sharp and negative scenario for Cuba.

The development of the situation around Cuba in the first quarter of 2026 has already been discussed in the Confirmation from April 25, 2026. To a certain extent, the development of the situation around the Island of Freedom depends on the resolution of the conflict in the Persian Gulf zone, namely, shifting Washington's attention from Tehran to Havana, but as expected, by "...May 13, 2026, there will be a situation of severe blocking regarding Cuba's autonomy or self-sufficiency...."

It was noted on ru.wikipedia.org that the US began blocking oil tankers bound for Cuba in 2026, targeting companies like Mexico's state-owned Pemex, and threatening sanctions against countries that resist. According to The New York Times, this is "the first effective blockade of Cuba since the Cuban Missile Crisis."

On May 16, 2026, a statement from the Russian Foreign Ministry reported Russia's outrage at Washington's "cynical" tightening of the blockade against Cuba, while also claiming a willingness to engage in dialogue.

Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated in mid-May 2026 that the US blockade against Cuba is unprecedented and has catastrophic humanitarian consequences for ordinary Cubans.

«In the second half of May 2026, the situation is developing along a very sharp and negative scenario for Cuba.»

The United States has intensified political and economic pressure on Cuba in recent months (the first four months of 2026). In January, President Donald Trump signed an order allowing for tariffs on imports from countries supplying oil to Cuba, and he also declared a national emergency due to alleged Cuban threats to US national security. This measure exacerbated the fuel shortage on the island, affecting electricity generation, transportation, food production, healthcare, and education.

The threat of US aggression against Cuba is increasing in the face of heightened economic pressure and stricter sanctions, stated Josefin Vidal Ferreiro, deputy foreign minister of the island nation, on May 29, 2026.

«The danger of military aggression against Cuba is growing each day,» Vidal Ferreiro said during the parliamentary hearings «Cuba Wants Peace.»

According to her words, Washington has in recent months unprecedentedly intensified economic pressure on the island, and new restrictive measures are aimed at suffocating the Cuban economy and provoking a humanitarian crisis."An economic war, imposed over six decades ago, has in recent months been intensified in an unprecedented manner," noted the deputy foreign minister of Cuba.She also stated that the US is creating new pretexts to increase pressure on Havana and possibly justify military actions against the country. Specifically, the Cuban side criticized accusations against revolutionary leader Raul Castro, calling them gross and fraudulent insinuations.According to Vidal Ferreiro, Cuba does not pose a threat to the US and does not engage in hostile activities against Washington from its territory."Cuba does not want a conflict. We have always been a country of peace, solidarity, and respectful relations with other states," emphasized the diplomat.She also pointed out that in the event of aggression, Cuba will defend its sovereignty and independence at any cost.

In the early third decade of May, it was noted that the Donald Trump administration is pursuing a policy of regime change in Cuba, with the main architect being Marco Rubio, a son of Cuban exiles and Secretary of State. At a meeting in Vatican City in early May 2026, he declared his desire for a peaceful transfer of power from the US to Cuba. However, this is only a declaration, while the actual goals and methods of US pressure are clearly different.

At the end of May 2026, the economic and military blockade intensified «...up to the point of pressuring (Cuba's) leadership...».

The US has already filed a criminal case against former President Raúl Castro and deployed a fleet in the Caribbean Sea.

On May 20, 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice charged 94-year-old Raul Castro with the murder of four Americans. The reason is a 30-year-old incident where Cuban fighter jets shot down two civilian planes. Simultaneously, the aircraft carrier Nimitz entered the Caribbean Sea. Analysts are drawing parallels with the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro and suggest that the Castro case is merely a pretext for a military operation.

S.Dragan:

Further... by June 18, 2026, the situation may develop along a very sharp and negative scenario for Cuba. And it is very possible that by mid-July 2026, events will reach very high levels of confrontation on the verge of dangerous military technical dangers.