Noticeable rise in the dollar. October 19, 2026

Forecast: “The geopolitical events of October 2026 and their further development. A promising scenario trajectory for many major geopolitical players” (published October 4, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

…a noticeable rise in the dollar, which is expected around October 19, 2026…

Maximum value of the euro against the dollar in 2026:

January 28, 2026: 1 dollar = 0.8356 euros.

Dollar exchange rate against the euro in October 2026:

September 30, 2026: 1 dollar = 0.88264 euros.

October 6, 2026: 1 dollar = 0.88809 euros.

October 19, 2026: 1 dollar = 0.89187 euros.

The dollar rose noticeably by 1.05% against the euro from October 1 to October 19, 2026.

Considering the dynamics since the beginning of the year, from the euro’s maximum value in 2026 on January 28:

In 2026, compared with January 28, the dollar rose noticeably by 4.19% against the euro by October 19.

As of October 19, 2026, the strengthening of the dollar was observed not only against the euro, but also against the ruble, meaning that the ruble was weakening against the dollar. Analysts highlighted several reasons at once.

• Geopolitical backdrop. The key signal was U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily refrain from imposing new sanctions. This reduced tensions, and investors began buying the currencies of countries that had previously been under sanctions pressure more actively. In this context, the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble became one of the indicators of an overall improvement in sentiment.
• Energy deals. At the same time, the market was influenced by expectations that supplies of Russian diesel fuel to the United States could begin. For Russia, this meant an inflow of foreign currency into the budget, which also contributed to an overall positive backdrop for the ruble.

• Tax payments. Another domestic factor was that the peak of quarterly tax payments, including the quarterly added income tax, was approaching. Exporters were selling foreign currency proceeds to pay taxes, which provided additional support to the ruble.

• Global market context. Global markets generally saw the dollar rise: investors were seeking a “safe haven” amid uncertainty, and demand for safe-haven assets, including the dollar, traditionally increases when markets are anxious.

To be continued…