Russia's Borders: Striving for Renewal and Expansion (Part 2)

Forecast: "Russia Under the Flag of Change: A Forecast for May - October 2026" (Published April 30, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

Around July 7, 2026, key territorial questions will be at stake in the country, decisions regarding crucial aspects related to Russia's resources and borders, seeking renewal and expansion...
...There will also be a trend towards expanding Russia's territorial space.

"Trends in the Expansion of Russia's Territorial Space" was noted at the end of June - beginning of July 2026 in a confirmation dated July 8, 2026.

In the development of the aforementioned events, shortly thereafter - in the second half of July 2026, new media information emerged on this issue.

On July 22, 2026, Bloomberg reports that Russia is reportedly considering new statements from US authorities, stating that "the US cannot act as a mediator," as evidence that the agreements reached in Anchorage have "fallen apart."

According to the publication's sources, Russia has rejected concessions to Ukraine regarding territories and now does not intend to return parts of occupied territories in Sumy and Kharkiv regions to Kyiv as part of a peace deal, planning to keep them as buffer zones. According to the sources, Russia is now allegedly only willing to negotiate after capturing the remaining parts of Donbas.

At the same time, on July 17, 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia, during a meeting in Alaska, agreed to U.S. President Donald Trump's proposals for resolving the Ukrainian crisis, however, Europe and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are still trying to deter Trump from these steps.

Lavrov also called "disgusting" journalists from the Washington Times for an article claiming that Russia allegedly rejected American proposals on the Ukrainian issue at the Alaska summit.

In July 2026, "...key issues related to resources are at stake..." primarily concerning energy resources. The situation became critically acute at the beginning of July 2026 due to Kyiv's shift to terrorist strikes against Russian oil refineries. This prompted the need for state systemic defensive measures in July.

As of July 25, 2026, according to independent fuel market experts, it's still too early to speak of a full recovery, but the peak of tension has already passed. In regions where there was a rush, it is now gradually subsiding.

It is noted that stabilization on the market exists, but not in all regions. The most important thing is that the crisis peak has already gone.

The Russian fuel market appears to be entering a new reality. The government has approved a procedure for distributing gasoline and diesel fuel in the event of a shortage, meaning they have addressed «crucial issues regarding resources». This essentially determines the order of access to fuel if the situation becomes critical again.

Bloomberg reported that Moscow has hardened its stance due to Ukraine's strikes on Russia.

On July 22, 2026, Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated at a briefing that the conditions for starting «serious and complex negotiations» to resolve the Ukrainian conflict are well-known to Kyiv, and after their implementation, «combat operations can stop very quickly».

He commented on an article published by Bloomberg, which claimed that Russia is not planning to resume the negotiation process until it fully controls the Donetsk People's Republic.

Peskov reminded that two years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin, addressing the leadership of the Russian Foreign Ministry, formulated the key conditions for the cessation of hostilities.

“All these conditions are still in place. These parameters are well known to everyone around the world, including in Kyiv. And as we have repeated many times, Kyiv just needs to make a responsible decision, and hostilities can stop very quickly, allowing for serious, complex negotiations,” the Russian leader’s press secretary stated.

The search for answers to key questions related to the negotiation process continues.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held a meeting in Manila on Thursday, July 23, 2026. Lavrov confirmed Russia's readiness for political and diplomatic conflict resolution in Ukraine, also noting the inadmissibility of further arming the Kiev regime. The parties agreed to continue contacts through their foreign ministries, the Russian Foreign Ministry reported.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio highly assessed the talks in Manila with the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Sergey Lavrov, declining to reveal details of the conversation.

Meanwhile, "European Truth" reports that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during his interaction with the press, stated that proposals for resolving the Ukrainian conflict, discussed at the Anchorage summit in 2025, did not succeed because Kiev did not agree to them.

"The proposals that were on the table - they call it '3 + 2', the territorial split - those attempts have failed. A peaceful agreement is impossible to reach if both sides don't agree to it, and the Ukrainians haven't agreed to it. That's why these efforts haven't borne fruit," he said.

Rubio also emphasized that the proposal was unacceptable for Ukraine then, and it's unlikely to be acceptable for Kyiv now.

"It's probably even less acceptable to them now," Rubio stressed.

Moreover, Rubio underscored that new ideas and proposals are needed to establish peace in Ukraine.

Currently, "...the key issues of territory within the country and decisions on key aspects..." of the negotiation process are at stake.

However, as Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov emphasized on July 23, 2026: "...it's not appropriate to talk about accelerating the resolution of the Ukrainian crisis yet."

In the forecast "Future of Key Players. Near and Slightly Further Out" from July 14, 2026, S. Dragan predicts:

...But Russia itself will be ready for a certain kind of activity as early as August 1, 2026. There will be something like a sense of confidence: we can handle it. But the situation is preparing for a new reformation of forces around, and that will have to be taken into account. One could say that from this point, the balance of external forces for Russia will be changing.

(Continuation of the topic follows)