Space itself may not be so safe.
Forecast: The beginning of a new life order. Summer - second half of 2026 (published on November 17, 2025).
S. Dragan:
And as all this comes together to form a new scenario, already in the 20s of July, a rather hot situation will begin to emerge. ... Moreover, this is a time when space itself may not be as safe...
It was noted in the Confirmation from May 20, 2026, that "...very serious problems with the ... space sphere will be observed from late April 2026."
The significant negative impact on space safety is that, according to scientists, there are currently around 34,000 debris pieces larger than 10 cm and approximately 128-130 million particles ranging from 1 mm to 10 cm in orbit around Earth. The number of even smaller fragments, less than a millimeter, cannot be accurately counted.
However, the issues in the space industry did not stop in the late spring of 2026, as predicted by S. Dragan. They continued. July - «…this is a time when space itself may not be as safe…».
In July 2026, the rescue spacecraft LINK from Katalyst Space Technologies Technologies lost its stable position and threatened the operation to lift NASA's Neil Gehrels Swift telescope. Initial reports indicate that two out of three reaction control thrusters, which control the spacecraft's orientation, stopped working. As a result, LINK started spinning, and communication with it became intermittent.
SpaceX was forced to cancel the 13th test launch of Starship during the launch window on July 16, 2026, in Texas. The automatic system interrupted the countdown after four Raptor engines failed to ignite.
Debris Removal of the ISS
Experts believe the station should be removed from orbit in the near future. Since 2028, plans are to lower the orbit to accelerate the natural descent of the ISS. The target date is 2030.
Light Pollution from Satellites
According to astrophysicist Avi Leb, thousands of satellites in Earth orbit create light pollution, which complicates the search for signs of extraterrestrial civilizations.
Rocket Collision with the Moon
In August 2026, it was expected that the used upper stage of the SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket would crash into the lunar surface at a tremendous speed.
On August 5, 2026, the upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket, owned by American entrepreneur and billionaire Elon Musk's SpaceX, crashed into the Moon at a speed of approximately 8,700 km/h. According to scientists' calculations, the impact occurred in the Einstein Crater on the far side of the planet.
Initially, a new crater formed on the Moon's surface after the impact, and a cloud of lunar dust was sent into space. Observing the moment of the collision from Earth was impossible due to the stage's landing location, the publication notes.
To clarify, this concerns the stage of the rocket that on January 15, 2025, launched the Blue Ghost-1 landing module by Firefly and the Japanese lunar probe Resilience, developed by ispace. Later, under the influence of gravity, the trajectory of the booster changed, leading to its collision with the Moon's surface.
German rocket malfunction
The German startup Rocket Factory Augsburg (RFA) has postponed the debut flight of the RFA One rocket from the SaxaVord spaceport on the Shetland Islands in Scotland.
On August 20, 2026, Katalyst Space Technologies and NASA officially ended the mission to elevate the orbit of the Swift gamma-observatory space probe using the Link space tug, launched on July 3 by the Pegasus XL rocket. The reason given was problems with the spacecraft's attitude system and the failure of some engines. The tug may still approach the observatory, but it won't be rescued - it will burn up in the atmosphere by the end of the year.
From July 17 to August 24, 2026, the Earth will pass through the debris trail of the Swift-Tuttle comet, creating ideal conditions for observing one of the brightest and most stable meteor showers - the Perseids. On the night of August 13, up to 150 "falling stars" per hour could be seen.
The risks of turning outer space into an arena for armed confrontation are no longer hypothetical, said Gennady Gatilov, Russia's permanent representative to the UN in Geneva, on August 20, 2026.
"Against the backdrop of the overall deterioration in the international political situation, the situation in military-space security continues to deteriorate. The risks of transforming outer space into an arena for armed conflict are no longer hypothetical," said Gatilov at the plenary session of the Conference on Disarmament.
He noted that some Western countries and blocs in their space policy documents directly refer to near-Earth space as "another operational environment" where combat operations can take place.
More on the topic to follow.
