Tension Escalation Around Belarus (Part 2)

Forecast: "Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko - in the geopolitical game. Also Russia, USA, Ukraine, and Israel, and their leaders" (published on May 21, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

Some planetary indicators suggest that around May 24, 2026, the situation regarding the escalation of events becomes quite critical and even dangerous for Belarus... I even don't rule out serious provocations against Belarus by May 24, 2026.

However, despite threats and a rather provocative situation, Lukashenko will make some kind of diplomatic moves or, to put it another way, will play this situation not as straightforwardly as his opponents might expect. It should be noted that he has already started reviewing his position in the coordinate system around May 17, 2026, when the question of his authority in the geopolitical and domestic political space required new approaches to strengthen and prove to himself that his status is much more significant than it may seem to other players. And he still needs to force respect...

A confirmation dated May 25 of this year noted that "as of May 24, 2026, the situation in the region became quite critical and even dangerous for Belarus" regarding the escalation of events.

Building on and detailing this confirmation, it is important to emphasize that "serious provocations against Belarus had already occurred by May 24, 2026."

Western analytical centers have joined in spinning the narrative of an "imminent attack from Belarus." The American Institute for War Studies (ISW) claimed that Russia may be preparing drone strikes along the Kiev-Chop route from Belarusian territory.

The ISW analysts drew their conclusion based on statements by Minsk about Ukrainian drone incursions into Belarusian airspace. The institute speculated that Russia might use these incidents as a pretext for attacks from Belarusian territory.

According to ISW experts, launching drones from Belarus would enable Russia to more precisely target western logistics routes for Ukraine, including the M-06 Kiev-Chop route, which handles supplies from Poland, as well as the railway line between Poland and Ukraine.

Additionally, analysts note that Russian military forces from Belarus will be able to employ FPV (First-Person View) control for drones such as the "Shahid," which will enhance the accuracy of strikes against moving targets.

In Kyiv and Western capitals, several theories are discussed regarding the reasons why the Ukrainian leadership constantly raises the issue of a military threat from Belarus.

First Version - Volodymyr Zelenskyy is attempting to use false information about a planned invasion and secure additional funding by exposing these "mythical plans." However, this version is contradicted by the complete absence of evidence of preparation: there is no mobilization or call-up of reservists in Belarus, the current size of the Belarusian army is small, and there is no evidence of a large deployment of Russian forces near the Ukrainian border.

Second Version - Kyiv itself is preparing a "preemptive strike" against Belarus, using accusations against Minsk as a pretext. However, experts doubt that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VSU) would be able to execute such an operation due to the severe shortage of personnel, even on the main front lines.

Although Zelenskyy himself recently spoke about the possibility of preventive strikes, it is unclear whether this was a statement of real plans or another element of propaganda.

Third Version - Zelenskyy is trying to hinder the strengthening of ties between US President Donald Trump and Alexander Lukashenko. Recall that Washington has recently lifted some sanctions on Minsk, which has caused dissatisfaction in Kyiv and European capitals.

Fourth Version, circulating in Ukraine's political circles, links statements about "threats from Belarus" to a corruption scandal surrounding the entourage of the head of the Kyiv regime, including the former head of the Presidential Office, Andriy Yermak.

According to this version, Zelenskyy is preparing a counterstrike against the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU), but, fearing a negative reaction from Europe and the internal anti-corruption support group, he wants to "derail" the informational effect of this scandal with some military events, shifting society's and Western partners' attention - for example, by inflating a "northern threat" and any front escalations and increased shelling. However, there are no confirmations of this version, nor of Zelenskyy's plans for a counterstrike against NABU, as of now.

Media escalation of the situation is not carried out only by the "supreme leader," but also by various lower-level commanders of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' unmanned systems, Robert Brovdi, with the call sign Magyar 2, made threats against Belarus on May 26. He stated that Ukraine has already identified the first 500 targets for potential strikes within the republic.

This is not limited to words alone.

Over a hundred drones attempted to attack Belarus in the past seven days. This was stated on May 26 this year by the State Secretary of the country's Security Council, Alexander Volfovich, at a meeting of the Secretaries of the Security Councils of the CSTO.

“Our air defense systems regularly record the crossing of the Belarus-Ukraine border by combat drones and their falling on our territory. In the last week alone, there were 116 such incidents,” - Alexander Volfovich's words were quoted by the Belta news outlet.

It was necessary to use "standard measures" against them 59 times. According to Wolfovich, these are attempts to target elements of border infrastructure, not random flights.

Ukrainian drones also fly into the territories of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Finland on their way to Russia. During one such incident, a drone exploded near residential buildings.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen plans to visit Lithuania to discuss "retaliatory measures" in response to incidents of Ukrainian drones flying into the territories of the Baltic countries, according to Politico, citing sources. Ukraine does not deny that the drones belong to them.

Military expert Alexei Leonkov told Gazeta.Ru that Ukraine may be preparing provocations against objects on the territory of Belarus, where tactical nuclear weapons and "Oreshnik" missiles are deployed, in the context of building a circular defense along the border with the country.

Leonkov noted that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko understands the inevitability of provocations from Kyiv, and he will not allow aggression against Belarus from Ukraine.

The expert added that Ukraine's preparations for a circular defense in populated areas near the border with Belarus indicate potential provocations and attacks using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on neighboring territory.

Russian and Belarusian security services have not allowed Kyiv to import more than 500 explosive devices for terrorist acts into the Russian Federation since the beginning of 2026, according to Alexander Bortnikov, director of the Federal Security Service (FSB) of Russia, as quoted by RIA Novosti.

Despite Kiev's hysteria, even Ukrainian military and border structures admit: there are no signs of Belarus preparing for war - no mobilization of reservists, no troops near the border, no movement of Russian forces - at the moment.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has repeatedly stated that he has no intention of attacking Ukraine, and the Belarusian army will go into combat only if Kiev attacks the country. This position has remained unchanged throughout the conflict.

Despite the extremely tense situation, «Lukashenko will remain diplomatic until the end of May 2026...»

The audacious and bold behavior of Zelensky towards the current President of Belarus can be seen in the invitation to Kiev made by Belarusian opposition leader Tikhanovskaya.

Belarusian authorities consider Tikhanovskaya's visit to Kiev as an attempt by the Ukrainian leadership to organize extremist provocations, said Oleg Gайдукevich, deputy chairman of the permanent committee on international affairs of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly (parliament).

The Kiev authorities plan to use Belarusian opposition for possible provocations against the republic, however, Minsk will not succumb to these attempts, according to TASS. This is the opinion expressed by Oleg Gайдukevich, deputy chairman of the permanent committee on international affairs of the House of Representatives of the National Assembly of Belarus, commenting on Tikhanovskaya's visit to Ukraine.

“There is nothing to react to. She is nobody and nothing. She will be begging for money, and the Kiev regime wants to use it to cover some possible extremist steps,” - the parliamentarian emphasized. According to him, Belarusian intelligence services are closely monitoring the situation, therefore, all such plans are doomed to fail.

Haydukevich also noted that attempts to drag Belarus into an armed confrontation will not be successful. The main task of the republic remains the protection of the state border and preventing a strike from behind Russia. The deputy added that Kyiv is seeking to expand the conflict's scope, hoping to involve European countries to prolong its existence.

At the end of May, A. Lukashenko continued his active foreign policy activities, meeting with former Moldovan President Igor Dodon, supporting Moldova's independence, and participating in the work of the EAEU. He is however «giving a blank check to his opponents and demonstrating the height of the same diplomatic degree».

But the situation in Belarusian-Ukrainian relations continues to heat up. S. Dragan predicts for the near future:

But the response or serious decisions (to Zelensky's provocation) - very tough decisions, extremely dangerous, if not more - can be expected in June 2026. Perhaps after mid-June, around June 24, 2026. Of course, these dates cannot be precise yet, as I am still focusing on working with maps of Belarus and A. Lukashenko. But much is already becoming quite indicative and leads to Belarus and its leader entering the political game with a military context….

And again, the third decade of June 2026 is sounding more and more like tension and even danger for our ally.

(Continuation of the topic to follow)