The dollar will experience a temporary decline by April 23, 2026.
Forecast: "Iran - Interference of events and forecast of a broader spectrum in the near term" (published on March 6, 2026, link)
D. Dragan:
By April 23, 2026, the game will change, and the Dollar may experience a temporary downturn. ... Fundamental circumstances will influence this.
In the confirmation of May 26, 2026, "11.03.26. Ruble against the Dollar" analyzed D. Dragan's forecast regarding the currency exchange rate in the first half of March 2026.
As of March 6, 2026 (the date of forecast publication), the dollar rate was above 78 rubles, and by April 10, 1 dollar was equal to 77.8366 rubles.
It is worth noting that even before the expected deadline of April 23, 2026, analysts expected that several fundamental factors would influence the market dynamics, including the approaching tax period and the meeting of the Bank of Russia on the key interest rate, which took place on Friday, April 24.
As of April 19th, experts believed the Russian currency had the potential to appreciate in the week ahead, from April 20th to 26th. After a short-term correction, the dollar, euro, and yuan may resume their downward trend. This is exactly what happened.
On April 23, 2026, the dollar on the Forex market fell below 74 rubles during the day but ended the day above these levels and the official Bank of Russia rate.
The official dollar rate set by the Central Bank for April 23, 2026, was 74.9995 rubles; on April 24, 1 dollar was equal to 74.8349 rubles.
Subsequently, the ruble reached 72.6 rubles per dollar, the highest since 2023. The publication Bloomberg attributed this to a sharp increase in currency inflows from oil sales due to the conflict in the Middle East.
The reason for the dollar's decline is the increase in foreign exchange sales by exporters. In April, companies traditionally sell more currency for tax payments, directly putting pressure on the dollar's course against the ruble.
According to the director of strategy at the investment company "Finam" Yaroslav Kabakov, until the end of May 2026, the dollar's course will be in the range of 69-73 rubles per dollar, and by the end of summer, the dollar is likely to return to the range of 75-82 rubles.
Meanwhile, the head of the State Duma committee on the financial market, Anatoly Aksakov, believes that the American currency may fall to 65 rubles this summer.
(more on the topic follows)
