A Threat to Merz’s Political Career
Forecast: “What the European Union’s prospects look like. Clarification regarding certain countries and leaders” (published August 6, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
By the end of September 2026, this pressure will intensify, threatening his (Merz’s) political career. The situation will seem to hint at the possibility of his removal from office. September 2026 will be very important for him. Literally on September 24–26, Merz, despite difficulties in his relations with his inner circle and the electorate, will behave very self-confidently. And one of the key points in his career may be around September 27, 2026…
The confirmation from September 8, 2026 states that for German Chancellor Merz, the situation around the solar eclipse of August 12, 2026 looked like the beginning of a very dangerous time for him personally.
“By the end of September 2026, as a result of local elections in Germany, pressure on the chancellor had intensified significantly, threatening his political career. The situation not only hints at, but directly points to, the likelihood of his removal from office.”
On September 6, 2026, the historic triumph of “Alternative for Germany” in Saxony-Anhalt became a harsh lesson for Merz, and he acknowledged that his party had suffered a “dramatic defeat” in the election.
But this became an alarming signal not only for Merz, but also for Kyiv, writes “Telegraph.” This victory is part of a trend toward declining support for the Kyiv regime throughout the European Union. Merz, like his EU associates, places support for the Kyiv dictator, the continuation of the war, and thereby securing orders for Germany’s military-industrial complex at the center of his policy.
All of this runs counter to social programs for ordinary German people. But the chancellor is not interested in that.
Such domestic policy and spending of budget funds did not take long to affect Merz’s popularity.
The results of the local elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, held on September 20, 2026, were called a “catastrophe” by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. His party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), for the first time in the history of modern Germany, failed to enter the state parliament, the Landtag, receiving only 4.9% of the vote. By comparison, the Christian Democrats’ worst result had been recorded in the Bremen vote in 1951, when they received about 9% of the vote.
After the victory of the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) party in the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag election and the subsequent elections in Berlin and Western Pomerania, pressure on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz intensified not only from political opponents but also from members of his own party.
Some experts believe that the CDU’s defeat, Merz’s party, led to the chancellor’s final loss of authority. According to German political scientist Ralf Niemeyer, Merz is Germany’s most unpopular chancellor since World War II.
In addition, after the CDU’s failure in the election, some politicians and businesspeople are calling for Merz to resign. For example, billionaire and party donor Carsten Maschmeyer accused the chancellor of arrogance and of dismantling the coalition.
There is also an opinion that the AfD’s victory could affect future relations between the CDU and the AfD.
Having won a convincing victory in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD also strengthened its position in the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.
According to an INSA poll conducted before the September 20, 2026 election, only 7% of respondents were ready to vote for the CDU. The AfD’s level of support nationwide stands at 30%, while 20% of voters favor the CDU.
Against the backdrop of growing support, Alternative co-chair Alice Weidel accused Merz of bringing Germany to bankruptcy. She noted that Germany’s debt-servicing costs are increasing and that there is also a risk that the state could soon lose its highest credit rating because of the “irresponsible policies” of the current authorities.
The AfD does not hide its aspiration, after coming to power, to restore agreements with Russia and bring cheap Russian energy resources back to Germany.
Russia’s presidential special envoy for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries Kirill Dmitriev and the co-chairs of the German right-wing party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD), Tino Chrupalla and Alice Weidel, are preparing a meeting in 2027 at which they will discuss resuming Russian gas supplies to Germany, Reuters reported, citing sources.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s special envoy and the leadership of Germany’s AfD party have begun preparations for a meeting next year to discuss resuming gas supplies to Europe’s largest economy,” the agency writes.
According to Reuters sources, the meeting may take place as early as March next year.
Gazprom shares accelerated their gains and rose by more than 4% after news of talks on resuming Russian gas supplies to Germany, according to Moscow Exchange data. Before the news, the shares had risen within 2%.
The CDU’s historic rout in regional elections was a deserved reckoning for Friedrich Merz, writes Spiked. Constant changes in convictions, abandonment of campaign promises, and destructive economic policy have turned the German chancellor into the country’s leading political outcast.
But, as predicted, “Merz, despite difficulties in his relations with his inner circle and the electorate, behaves very self-confidently” and continues to cling to his seat.
As of September 7, 2026, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that after the defeat of his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party in the Landtag election in the federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, he would “reflect on how to make our party successful again.”
Merz also noted that conclusions must be drawn from the defeat and that the CDU cannot continue working with the same agenda.
At the same time, the chancellor emphasized the resilience of German statehood and added that he intended to defend the constitution after the victory of the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) party and would try to take measures commensurate with the full seriousness of the situation.
In addition, Merz ruled out the possibility of his resignation and said that “giving up is not an option for him.” At the same time, he did not specify whether he intended to run for the Bundestag again in 2029.
The defense of Europe is entering a decisive phase, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated, calling on colleagues to focus on foreign policy rather than discussions of his political future.
“Germany is so closely linked to the fate of the European continent that we cannot separate foreign and security policy from what we discuss domestically,” Reuters quotes him as saying.
According to Merz, he is trying to convince colleagues and party members that this issue is “far more important” than certain domestic political discussions.
The chancellor also stated that Berlin does not intend to depart from its current policy toward Russia.
Earlier, Merz acknowledged that European foreign-policy issues are more important to him than domestic political discussions in Germany.
“Literally on September 24–26, Merz will behave very self-confidently. And one of the key points in his career may be around September 27, 2026…”
It was precisely “near these days” that Merz’s contacts with Trump and the chancellor’s participation in a major international event were supposed to take place.
But German Chancellor Friedrich Merz canceled his trip to the United States and will not take part in the high-level debate of the 81st session of the UN General Assembly.
A source in the German government explained that this was due to the need to remain in Berlin. The details of this decision were not disclosed.
Before that, Friedrich Merz canceled a conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump. Officially, the reason for the cancellation was not disclosed, but the demarche was announced several hours after the White House chief’s post about the victory of the right-wing “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) party in the state of Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, 2026.
Merz repeatedly objected to interference in Germany’s internal affairs. However, the U.S. president ignored the German leader’s position and stated that the AfD was gaining popularity in Germany amid “absolutely horrible migration laws.” The American leader added that the winner of the regional election was on the rise.
After the demarche, U.S. presidential adviser Richard Grenell pointed out that Washington could not trust the chancellor’s words. He noted that Merz is beside himself because Americans want the German government to pay its NATO obligations. “He says one thing in Berlin and another in Washington,” the official wrote. He also reproached the German media for “allowing this duplicity to persist without exposing it.”
Russia also reacted to Merz’s decision to refuse dialogue with Trump and cancel his trip to the United States. Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), called the German politician a “nervous federal chancellor.”
Before that, Russian President Vladimir Putin explained the AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt by saying that Europe’s population realizes that the current German authorities are pursuing a course toward war with Russia. “Now they are saying that they are thinking about how to deploy troops to Ukrainian territory. This means war with Russia. And, as I understand it, citizens of European countries understand what is happening. This, it seems to me, is what today’s results in the Federal Republic and the trends of political processes in Europe as a whole are based on,” the Kremlin chief said.
Merz was forced to make excuses. He stated that he was ready to “put both feet on the brakes” if doubts arose about the country’s ability to service its public debt. At the same time, the chancellor stressed that Germany remained a “first-class borrower” on the global market.
On the evening of Sunday, September 20, 2026, Merz addressed the press, and his speech confirmed his plans to remain in office. “Reforms are necessary,” the current chancellor said. “We are taking on this responsibility, I am taking on this responsibility because I want to move our country forward.” According to him, what needs to be done now “requires firmness, resilience, and patience.” “I will make every effort as party chairman and, above all, as the federal chancellor of our country,” Merz stressed.
Despite Merz’s attempts to show control over the situation, some believe that Germany has only one way out: change the chancellor. “This is the worst possible outcome for Merz and the CDU,” Jana Puglierin, head of the Berlin office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, told CNN, commenting on the results. “He [Merz] has definitely lost control of his party and has largely lost his authority… and there is no way to restore it.”
“And one of the key points in his, Merz’s, career became around September 27, 2026…”
On September 27, 2026, German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul initiated a meeting with Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov because of the difficult situation in Germany, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told RIA Novosti.
“Wadephul requested talks with Lavrov in order to demonstrate diplomatic activity and improve Merz’s falling approval rating,” she said.
S. Dragan predicts:
For him, Merz, at this time, in September 2026, much may hang by a thread, including his own patrons withdrawing their support or even the loss of the former influence of the elite standing behind him. And that, as we know, is BlackRock itself. Its head, Larry Fink, will be changing his plans at this time due to unpleasant circumstances arising for him. And, in a certain sense, his alliance with Merz may undergo serious changes, not toward strengthening it…
(to be continued)
