The process of strengthening Russia's status through its natural resources
Forecast: "Russia under the flag of change: Forecast for May - October 2026" (published April 30, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
By May 17, 2026, ... around this same time, there will be a process of strengthening Russia's status through its natural resources...
The world still has many interested in purchasing Russia's energy resources, despite illegal sanctions. This was reported on Thursday, May 14, 2026, by the President of Russia's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov.
As the Kremlin spokesperson emphasized, despite the abundance of restrictions, "which we do not agree with and which we do not accept" on our oil, there are still many applications to purchase Russian energy carriers.
Peskov refused to go into details "for obvious reasons," but noted that "the energy resource market is very dynamic" (cited by TASS).
The global energy market situation has been dramatically exacerbated by the military operations of the United States and Israel against Iran. Special Representative of the Russian President Kirill Dmitriev warned that the potential withdrawal of US military forces from the Strait of Hormuz region could push oil prices to over $200 per barrel for a period of time.
Meanwhile, the State Duma dismissed Russians' concerns about gas and gasoline prices. First Deputy Chairman of the Energy Committee Valery Seleznyov did not rule out the possibility that "black gold" could reach $200 per barrel due to the ongoing military actions in the Middle East. However, this is in our favor, as "the world will be more interested in buying (oil and petroleum products) from Russia."
On May 17, 2026, the United States extended for 30 days the license for the purchase of Russian oil already loaded on tankers, as reported by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The previous license expired on May 16, 2026.
"The license will help stabilize the physical market for crude oil and ensure oil supplies to the most energy-vulnerable countries," Mr. Bessent wrote on social media X.
According to a source with Reuters, several countries in the Persian Gulf, whose oil supplies were disrupted due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, have asked the U.S. Treasury for a delay.
The U.S. issued a license on March 13, 2026, to address the oil shortage on global markets following the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Subsequently, the U.S. Treasury extended the document's validity until May 16, 2026. Over 10 countries have requested the U.S. Treasury to extend the sanctions relief on Russian oil, as reported by Scott Bessent.
The UK government has lifted the ban on importing kerosene and diesel fuel produced from Russian oil in third countries on an indefinite basis. This information is stated in a license published by the Financial Sanctions Implementation Office (OFSI) of the UK.
According to the document text, restrictions will not apply to petroleum products falling under the codes for kerosene (2710 19 21) and diesel fuel (2710 19 42 or 2710 19 44). The license takes effect on May 20, 2026. The UK Home Secretary may amend, revoke, or suspend the license at any time.
The ruble reached 72.6 rubles per dollar, the highest since 2023. Bloomberg publication explained this by a sharp increase in currency inflows from oil sales due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Federal budget revenues of Russia from oil and gas exports, as of May, will reach 700 billion rubles, 39 percent more than the same period last year.
Of course, it will take time until sanctions are fully lifted, something that S. Dragan predicts:
But it might not be that straightforward, even paradoxical. The process of restructuring Russia's basic resource sources, on one hand, might be at risk, on the other, it will prepare for reform in all these areas...
(more on the topic to follow)
