The situation is provocative for Cuba.

Forecast: «Global World Events in the Coming Months» (published March 18, 2026, link)

S. Dragun:

And as for Cuba. I haven't previously worked with forecasts for this region, and I'll attempt to guess that by the end of March 2026, the situation could become provocative for Cuba. It's like trying to break someone's pride.

Basically, the same painful point, which astrologically worked during the Cuban Missile Crisis, might be activated, somewhat reminiscent of the current situation.

Not everything will be identical, of course, but the pressure will be intense, particularly regarding the most critical energy and household issues, possibly even leading to food problems. So, I believe, by the end of March 2026, we could see the first phase of tension...

For Russians, Cuba, as it was once for Soviet citizens, is a symbol of the «island of freedom», the Cuban people's desire to break free from American oppression.

A bright manifestation of this struggle was the more than 60-year-old Cuban Missile Crisis, and perhaps not coincidentally, S. Dragans draws an analogy between current events and that crisis: «In essence, the same painful point will be squeezed, which astrologically worked during the Cuban Missile Crisis, which may somewhat resemble this unfolding scenario.»

A new round of conflict over Cuba began this year with an acute oil and energy crisis triggered by a US blockade on fuel supplies. In January 2026, following US intervention in Venezuela's politics and the overthrow of Nicolas Maduro, Washington began seizing tankers carrying Venezuelan oil bound for Cuba, depriving the island of its main fuel source.

On January 29, President Donald Trump signed Executive Order 14380, declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs on imports from countries supplying oil to Cuba, including Mexico, whose supplies were halted.

From February 2026, the US has increased pressure, beginning to block tankers - this is the first such extensive blockade since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Trump has repeatedly stated his intention to achieve regime change in Cuba by year's end, urging Cuban leadership to "make a deal, before it's too late."

In mid-March of this year, the US President noted that while the Middle East conflict remains the White House's top priority, after the end of the war against Iran, attention may shift to Cuba. His rhetoric towards the island remains extremely tough.

“By the end of March 2026, the situation has become provocative for Cuba. It's like they want to break Cuba's pride.”

"I can free Cuba or take it, I think, I can do whatever I want with it," the White House chief stated.

Trump also considers taking over the island as an "honor."

According to the president, Cuba is in a dire situation, lacking sufficient resources and facing significant internal problems. He added that the current regime, in his opinion, "will fall soon."

In negotiations, Washington, in violation of all international norms and the Cuban people's right to make their own choices, demands the removal of President Miguel Díaz-Canel. Under the guise of a "joke," but highly offensive to Cubans, D. Trump already introduced the new president of Cuba - his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio.

In Havana, they insist on dialogue only with respect for the country's sovereignty.

Cuba's representative to the UN, Ernesto Sobron, on April 3rd stated that any change in power on the island under US pressure or the removal of Díaz-Canel is not discussed in any form with Washington.

However, the US ignores the Cuban people's opinion; their "...pressure has intensified, particularly on critical energy and household issues, including food shortages."

The Cuban Ministry of Energy reported that the country experienced a complete blackout on March 22nd. Such collapses have become regular for the island in recent months.

Blackouts last 20-24 hours a day in some regions, including widespread power cuts. The system lost around 1000 MW of capacity due to diesel and fuel oil shortages, despite formally having 3200 MW available.

This paralyzed transportation, waste management (only 41% of trucks operate in Havana), healthcare, and water supply. Harvests are not being gathered, UN humanitarian aid deliveries are blocked, and schools are closed.

President Miguel Díaz-Canel stated in a March address that three months without fuel resulted from the "strict" US blockade.

As predicted by S. Dragan, "Not everything will be identical (to the Cuban Missile Crisis), of course, but..." Russia's aid, as the USSR's aid before, will come to Cuba in a time of need. Yes, this aid "is not identical" and does not involve deploying Russian missiles, but economically, "the Island of Freedom" would not survive without Russian support.

The Russian Ministry of Transport reported in late March that the Russian tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, carrying a humanitarian cargo of 100,000 tons of crude oil, arrived in Cuba's Matanzas port.

At the end of March, reports emerged of another oil shipment being prepared for Cuba. Russian companies in Cuba will be able to manage industrial production - this was reported by the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade on April 10. Previously, Russian investors, without guarantees of direct control over their investments, viewed the island with caution.

By the end of March - April, US actions became increasingly «resembling an attempt to bruise the pride» of Cubans.

High-level US State Department officials held negotiations with Cuban officials in Havana. The visit took place at a time when the Donald Trump administration is ramping up efforts to force the island into a deal, continuing to squeeze the Cuban economy under tight restrictions.

This is one of the most representative American delegations to visit Cuba in roughly the last decade. The trip came amid repeated hints from the US president about the possibility of military intervention, as well as an escalating economic crisis on the island due to sharp restrictions, including on fuel supplies. In recent days, the Cuban leader, for his part, has made increasingly belligerent statements, calling for resistance against American military aggression.

As reported by CNN, a U.S. State Department official said a delegation that visited the island in recent weeks (early April) made clear to Havana that the time for key reforms supported by the U.S. is running out, and circumstances could deteriorate irreversibly. This is the first landing of a U.S. government plane on Cuba, excluding the Guantanamo base, since 2016 when then-President Barack Obama visited the island as part of efforts to improve relations with Havana.

According to the foreign policy official, the U.S. side emphasized the need for Cuba to conduct significant economic and governance reforms to improve competitiveness, attract foreign investment, and ensure growth led by the private sector. Discussions included a proposal to provide the island with Elon Musk's Starlink satellite internet, as well as options for compensating U.S. citizens and corporations for "confiscated assets and property" - a step that would likely be welcomed by the Cuban diaspora in the U.S.

The delegation also put forward demands for the release of political prisoners and the expansion of "political freedoms" for the population.

This demand is clearly provocative - one of the main elements in preparing color revolutions and the subsequent overthrow of the legitimate government in any country, with the coming to power of pro-Western leaders.

In addition, American representatives expressed concern about "the activities of foreign intelligence, military, and terrorist groups operating with the permission of the Cuban government less than a hundred miles from American territory."

As S. Dragin predicted at the time, "the same painful point will be squeezed, which astrologically worked during the Cuban Missile Crisis."

As during the time of J. Kennedy, who threatened to take aggressive military action against F. Castro's regime in 1961, Trump has repeatedly made it clear that the US may consider a military option against Havana.

The American president threatens the Cuban leader and draws parallels, calling the capture of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela a significant military success. "In January, our warriors flew straight into the heart of Caracas, captured the outlawed dictator Nicolas Maduro, and brought him before American justice," Trump said at an event. "And very soon, this great force will bring the day that has been awaited for seventy years. It's called a new dawn for Cuba."

Can the situation for Cuba, under such pressure from the White House, be described any differently than provocative?

On April 17th, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, under immense psychological pressure, pledged "to open fire" on any new attempts by the US to invade the island during a ceremony marking the 65th anniversary of Cuba's victory over CIA-trained exiles in the Bay of Pigs.

On Sunday (April 19th), Cuban television aired footage of Díaz-Canel, along with other officials, signing a declaration to never "surrender the principles of the Cuban revolution."

S. Dragun “...believes that by the end of March 2026 ... the first phase of tension ... was ... achieved ...”, and envisions the further development of events for Cuba as follows:

...By May 13, 2026, a serious situation of blockade will arise, regarding Cuba's autonomy or self-sufficiency, up to the pressure on leadership.

Further, in the second half of May 2026 and closer to June 18, 2026, the situation may develop according to a very sharp and negative for Cuba scenario.

And it is very possible that by the second half of July 2026, events will reach very high degrees of confrontation on the verge of dangerous military-technical dangers.

(to be continued)