Turkey's Political Trajectory in Mid-July 2026 (Part 1)

Forecast: "Global World Events in the Next Few Months" (published March 18, 2026)

S. Dragan:

...In essence, there is potential for military-political events to affect Turkey between July 9-18, 2026...

As noted in Confirmations from April 17, May 1, and May 6 of this year, Turkey remains a key player in the Middle East, and R. Erdogan continues to adhere to his principle: "When all bridges are burned, the mediator becomes the passage for peace."

But, as S. Dragan predicted, R. Erdogan will not only have "mediating functions," but "...by July 9-18, 2026, military-political events will also affect Turkey itself...." These events cover four main areas of Ankara's foreign policy: enhancing Turkey's military potential as one of the strongest European armies in NATO; participating as a mediator in the Ukrainian conflict; opposing Israel for dominance in the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean.

The most significant military-political event involving Turkey during this period was the NATO summit, held in Ankara on July 7-8 of this year.

The summit emphasized the role of the Turkish army in the combined military potential of the entire bloc.

Turkey, unlike Europe, has maintained a professional army. This was stated by Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler at the NATO summit in Ankara, according to Haber Turk.

“While most European countries reduced their armed forces after the end of the Cold War, Turkey did not. Instead, it maintained a much larger professional army, consisting of active-duty personnel.”

Guler stressed that Turkey, having been a member of the alliance since 1952, has the second-largest army in NATO and is among the top five countries contributing to its activities.

He expressed Turkey's unwavering commitment to the Fifth Article of the Washington Treaty on Collective Defense and noted that political obligations should be backed by a strong military force.

The war in Ukraine, he said, has reshaped Euro-Atlantic security; he also noted that events involving Israel and the U.S. demonstrate that regional crises can have global repercussions.

Güler pointed out that modern threats have become significantly more complex, emphasizing the need for NATO to employ a comprehensive security strategy.

The minister stressed that European allies are obligated to take on additional responsibility, not just in terms of increased defense spending.

Güler noted that besides the budget, trained personnel, availability of ammunition, effective logistics, strong team structures, and wise task allocation are crucial. He particularly emphasized the need for improved operational readiness.

He noted that Turkey's defense industry is actively developing. Thanks to its organizational structure and accumulated experience, the country is capable, he said, of providing swift assistance to allies.

Güler stated that Turkey, having joined NATO in 1952, is not a typical alliance member country. He emphasized that its unique geographic position has always bestowed upon it a special role and significant obligations.

Turkey, with the second-largest army in NATO, according to him, actively participates in the alliance's missions, covering a wide geographic range. Güler added that the country's high educational standards, rich operational experience, and powerful military potential contribute to its significant contributions to NATO operations in Kosovo, the Mediterranean, and territories from the Baltic to the Black Sea.

He also noted that recent exercises demonstrated the crucial role Turkey plays in euro-Atlantic security.

In mid-July of this year, Turkey once again initiated its proposals as a mediator in the Ukrainian conflict.

Due to the increased strikes on ships and coastal infrastructure in the Black Sea by the Kiev regime, Turkey has also incurred financial and economic losses.

In mid-July of this year, a Turkish-flagged cargo ship carrying coal from a Russian port was attacked by a Ukrainian military drone in the Black Sea. There were fatalities and injuries, according to the Turkish newspaper Sabah.

In response to these strikes, Ankara has been making diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire on transit routes, similar to the 2022 Grain Deal.

Turkey is ready to do everything in its power to end the conflict in Ukraine. This was stated on June 16th of this year by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan during negotiations with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

"Once again, I want to emphasize that our country, Turkey, is ready to do everything in its power. This concerns the mediation role, or perhaps Turkey itself as a mediator, or providing a platform for a mediation role to ensure this conflict comes to an end," said Fidans.

Meanwhile, in the context of Turkey's supposedly declared desire for peace, it is peculiar that its president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, for the first time on July 9 of this year, expressed support for the PURL initiative - a NATO mechanism through which American arms are financed for Ukraine. He made this statement commenting on the outcomes of the NATO summit in Ankara.

"I declare my support for the initiative to compile a list of Ukraine's priority needs. We will continue our contribution, in addition to the military support we have provided Ukraine from our own national arsenal. In supporting Ukraine, we use our communication channels to direct Russia towards the path of peace," - Bloomberg quotes him.

Erdogan, meanwhile, with a straight face, emphasized his desire to act as a mediator in organizing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

"I once again declare our readiness to gather the parties again in Turkey," he said.

But what lies behind Turkey's abrupt change in position regarding participation in the aid program to Ukraine through the purchase of American weapons? It's about their interests, primarily concerning the purchase of American multi-role fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets.

D. Trump was granted royal honors at a reception in Turkey. Global practice and tradition dictate that one should smile at each other, focusing on trivial matters. This was once again emphasized by numerous statements made by US President Trump following the summit. Showering praise, he described his Turkish counterpart, Erdoğan, as an excellent leader, a longtime friend, and a very strong personality.

Meanwhile, the Ankara Esenboğa Airport particularly impressed the American leader. The host of the White House specifically noted that the Turks had built a magnificent new terminal specifically for his visit. He also sincerely thanked the host of Ak-Saray "for what he is doing for Turkey." In principle, all these praises are not binding and certainly do not imply any serious obligations, such as fulfilling certain well-known commitments of Washington to Ankara.

Trump, at the final press conference, stated that he has not made a final decision on returning Turkey to the fifth-generation multi-role fighter jet program F-35. "We have excellent relations with Turkey. I haven't made a final decision on this yet," the U.S. president said, despite the Turkish side publicly putting pressure on their American counterparts, relentlessly pursuing their desired outcome.

Not coincidentally, after the NATO summit in Ankara, Erdoğan made a statement regarding the delivery of American fifth-generation fighter jets F-35. According to him, Donald Trump is currently demonstrating a "positive approach" towards Turkey on this issue. Erdoğan emphasized that Ankara expects the fulfillment of obligations: "When the transfer of F-35 to Turkey takes place, the whole world will say: 'America kept its word.'"

However, Turkey will be the most affected by the "most serious military political events" in the context of the rivalry with Israel for dominance in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

This block of issues will be considered in more detail in Part 2 Confirmation.

(continuation of the topic to follow)