Turkey's Political Trajectory in Mid-July 2026 (Part 2)

Forecast: "Global World Events in the Next Few Months" (published March 18, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

...In essence, there is potential for military-political events to affect Turkey between July 9-18, 2026...

In Part 1, Confirmation from July 29, 2026, briefly discusses some of the "military-political events affecting Turkey between July 9-18, 2026...."

Beyond the events mentioned in it, the rivalry between Turkey and Israel over dominance in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean has intensified around this period, requiring closer attention.

The aggressive rhetoric from both sides has increased.

In Ankara on July 10, 2026, it was emphasized that Benjamin Netanyahu's government policy is a burden for the entire Middle East.

Turkey has no reason for an open conflict with Israel, stated Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in an interview with The National newspaper on that day.

"There are still reasonable and good people in Israel with wisdom and strategic thinking," he noted.

As the elections draw near (autumn 2026), Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and some other politicians need a new enemy, believes Fidan.

After military campaigns against the Palestinian movement Hamas, the Lebanese Shia organization Hezbollah, and Iran, they need a new opponent to evoke sympathy. And precisely such an opponent, Israeli authorities are trying to portray as Turkey, the diplomat noted.

“Netanyahu's policy and his government's policy is a burden for Israel itself, for the entire region, and also a threat to international security,” he emphasized.

Earlier, on June 7, 2026, the Turkish Foreign Ministry accused Israel of a massive disinformation campaign. The ministry noted that Netanyahu and his associates deliberately distort any criticism against them and attempt to change the agenda through systematic propaganda efforts.

The ministry emphasized that the attempts of the Israeli government are not convincing the international community, and the government of the country's Prime Minister fails to hide the genocide in Gaza and the policies of occupation and annexation in the Middle East region.

Tensions in relations between Ankara and Tel Aviv have persisted since May 2021, when after the escalation of the conflict in Gaza, Turkey condemned the policies of the Israeli government. Currently (mid-July 2026), it has intensified.

In early July 2026, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan compared Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip to genocide after the Israeli government approved the recognition of the Armenian genocide (over 100 years old), according to Politico.

"We pay no attention to the slander against our country from the network of killers, on whose hands are the lives of 73,000 innocent Gaza residents, most of them children and women. In our history, there has been neither genocide, nor mass killings, nor oppression, nor colonialism," Erdogan said at a cabinet meeting.

He has previously stated that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza. According to Erdogan, in the face of Israel's "cruelty in Gaza," recognizing the genocide of Armenians in Turkey appears contradictory. Erdogan also reminded that during World War II, Turkey saved Jews from the Holocaust.

Turkey's Vice President Jevdet Yilmaz called Israel's vote on recognizing the Armenian genocide "an attempt to hide its own crimes." The Israeli government categorically denies accusations of committing genocide.

This refers to the mass killings and deportation of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire from 1915 to 1917, resulting in the deaths of over 1 million people, according to various estimates. Many countries, including several EU states, recognize these events as genocide. Turkey rejects such qualification.

Accusations of genocide are also being made regarding Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip. Israel denies these, while the International Court of the United Nations is considering a related lawsuit filed by South Africa.

The Istanbul court on July 14, 2026, issued an international arrest warrant through Interpol for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as a most wanted criminal, according to the newspaper Sabah.

“The panel of judges, considering the case at the 11th Istanbul Criminal Court, decided to issue an arrest warrant for the accused Netanyahu through the 'red' bulletin,” the publication reported.

The Istanbul Public Prosecution Office already issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu and several other high-ranking Israeli officials in November 2025, accusing them of genocide in Gaza. The investigation was initiated after Israeli authorities detained Global Fleet of Resilience activists in October, who attempted to deliver humanitarian aid to the semi-enclave. Doctors, including psychologists, examined the detained and later deported participants of the fleet from Israel to Turkey. Thus, evidence of crimes against humanity was obtained as part of the investigation.

Participants of the "Fleet of Resilience" stated that they planned to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza for those in need. The Turkish Foreign Ministry previously described the actions of the Israeli Navy as "an act of piracy," emphasizing that attacking peaceful activists, including Turkish citizens and members of the Grand National Assembly, constitutes a gross violation of international law.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has repeatedly criticized Netanyahu in the wake of Israel's strikes on Iran and Palestinian movement Hamas representatives. The Turkish leader emphasized that Ankara will continue to support countries facing Israeli aggression.

At the same time, Israel accuses Turkey of strengthening its military presence in Syria. This is stated in a report by the Israeli analytical center Alma Research and Education Center, where former employees of the Israeli intelligence service and military experts work.

The authors of the report analyzed the events of late spring - early summer 2026 and concluded that Turkey has significantly intensified its activities in Syria in several areas - military, economic, and political. And precisely this complex of steps, in their assessment, creates new challenges for Israel and limits its freedom of action in the region.

The document notes that for the first time since the change of power in Syria, Syrian military personnel participated in major foreign exercises-the Turkish EFES-2026 (April-May 2026, Izmir). They practiced joint tasks with Turkish forces, including airborne operations using Turkish helicopters. In Alma, this was seen as a step towards deepening institutional ties between the armies.

The report states that on May 11, 2026, a Turkish military ship officially entered the Syrian port of Latakia for the first time. The Turkish Ministry of Defense emphasized that this is part of efforts to develop bilateral military cooperation and support the reorganization of the Syrian armed forces.

A trend is observed: Turkey is gradually expanding its influence, moving from northern Syria towards the southern border with Israel. The authors warn: if Turkey deploys advanced air defense systems in Syria or establishes a permanent base south of Damascus, it will become a "red line" for Israel and seriously limit its air force capabilities.

According to the report, Turkey is a key player in this process: it supplies Syria with drones, air defense systems, and high-precision missiles.

Authors separately noted the growth of Turkey's military potential: the growth of arms exports, the sale of ships (for example, to Romania), the development of the KAAN fighter, the Tayfun missile, and the intercontinental ballistic missile Yıldırımhan. All of this, in their opinion, strengthens Ankara's global capabilities and indirectly influences the power balance in the region.

Indeed, the conclusion of the report contains a warning: "The combination of these factors creates new risks for Israel."

Serious disagreements between Turkey and Israel have been exacerbated by the potential transfer of F-35 fighters from the U.S. to Turkey.

The potential transfer of the latest F-35 fighters to Turkey would disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated on July 7, 2026.

US President Donald Trump, commenting on the prospect of Turkey receiving F-35 fighters, stated that Washington still needs to make this decision. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan claimed that Ankara received a promise from Washington to deliver five F-35 fighters.

"This would disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East, because Turkey, as I see it, has aggressive intentions. They openly speak about it. They want to restore the Ottoman Empire, which would include not only Turkey but also many other states, including Syria, parts of Jordan, the territory of present-day Israel, and some countries in the Persian Gulf," - Netanyahu stated in an interview with CNN.

"He (Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) is not a model ally of the United States. He threatens to destroy my country, the only Jewish state... This is not a force that brings peace and stability. When you give them such power, you will see aggression," - Netanyahu said on July 7, 2026, during an appearance on CNN.

According to the Israeli prime minister, he directly urged US President Donald Trump not to sell fighters to Turkey, as it would "destabilize the balance of power in the Middle East."

In early July 2026, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in a conversation with CNN Turk, referred to Israel as a "burden that humanity can no longer bear." This year, Mr. Erdoğan called the Israeli prime minister a tyrant and promised him a "stinging lesson" from the entire Muslim world. In 2023, he referred to the Jewish state as a terrorist organization and Israeli soldiers as war criminals.

Turkey was removed from the F-35 program in 2019 after purchasing Russian S-400 air defense missile systems. Ankara called Washington's decision an unfair and illegal step. Later, the US imposed sanctions on Turkey.

However, as noted above, on July 7, 2026, Trump announced his intention to lift sanctions against Ankara and also stated that he would consider supplying Turkey with fighters.

But not only the aforementioned series of "military and political events affect Ankara's interests". The economic conflict between Turkey and Israel over the right to extract natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, which escalated in mid-2026, deserves separate consideration.

(To be continued)