The talks did not become the final stage of the agreements
Forecast: “The geopolitical events of October 2026 and their further development. A promising scenario for many key geopolitical players” (published October 4, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
It may generally be a matter of a global negotiation process (in the autumn of this year). … But it (the autumn negotiation process) … will not become the final stage of the agreements…
Forecast: “Universal Forecast for November 2026. Part 1” (published October 29, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
The main trend at the beginning of November 2026 is the continuation of Mercury’s and Venus’s retrograde motion, which will create low productivity in many matters, “suspending” events in a mode of non-final decisions, sometimes marking time…
The confirmations “The negotiation process appears important” of October 28, 2026, and “Only a certain model of possible agreements” of November 2, 2026, indicated that after a long break, plans once again emerged at the end of October 2026 to hold a trilateral meeting of negotiating groups on the Ukrainian conflict.
These plans materialized during the talks held in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11, 2026. But, as forecast, they have so far become only an intermediate stage on the path to peace.
Less than a month ago, in mid-October 2026, the upcoming talks “looked very promising…”. But even at the preparation stage, the parties encountered a number of serious problems.
At the end of October 2026, European Union representatives were very eager to attend the trilateral meeting, but their goal was not to facilitate peace talks but, quite the opposite, to prevent the conclusion of a peace treaty.
The upcoming meeting in Abu Dhabi, declared in mid-October 2026, then sparked panic in Europe. EU leaders were alarmed by statements from White House chief Donald Trump that the agreement would affect the entire region—a third of the Old World.
“I think they want to make a deal. It will be a very major settlement. I think it will affect all of Europe,” U.S. President Donald Trump stated.
The U.S. leader first announced a major deal the day before—after meeting at the White House with the Russian leader’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev. Trump’s special envoy Jared Kushner later clarified the details. In Washington’s assessment, creating a stable European security architecture is impossible without Russia.
Signals from across the Atlantic immediately stirred up the European beehive. First, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz called the White House. Washington’s initiative was a stab in the back for Brussels: it had not been informed in advance.
“An attempt to decide the future of Ukraine and Europe ‘over our heads’ would not merely be unwise—it is essentially impossible, since Europe and Ukraine have their own agency, and we will either agree or disagree with what is presented,” Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stressed.
According to Politico, Europeans now fear that the United States may reconsider its military presence on the continent. Kyiv’s allies are dissatisfied that their interests are not being taken into account and are again attempting to derail a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict.
“There are virtually no signs of peace coming soon. On the contrary, Ukraine faces another extremely difficult winter. To strengthen Ukraine’s resilience, the EU allocated another four billion euros this week under its loan support program—however, it is obvious that this is not enough,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.
At a meeting in Warsaw, Kallas and Sikorski discussed arms supplies and joint drone production with the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry. A peaceful settlement, especially one taking Moscow’s position into account, is not even mentioned aloud there. Kyiv also echoes the Europeans: Zelensky launched into a lengthy warning tirade.
“The American side wanted to discuss the idea of creating a new security architecture in Europe that includes Russia. Between us, this is not easy for me, and it may be risky. For the European Union, it is even more dangerous than for us,” said the head of the Kyiv regime.
Ukraine itself was initially unable to clarify who would represent it at the talks in Abu Dhabi. First, the American TV channel CBS announced that the head of Zelensky’s office, Kirill Budanov* (designated a terrorist and extremist in the Russian Federation), had personally stated that he would lead the delegation.
But this was denied in the Ukrainian press.
“Communications adviser Dmytro Lytvyn noted that all group participants are currently preparing for the talks and that there were many preparatory discussions about this on Friday. Kyiv’s delegation at the trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi will be led by the head of Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service, Rustem Umerov,” the Ukrainian publication “ZN.UA” reported.
And while Ukraine and Europe continued to weave intrigues, Russia was dealing with issues of peacefully resolving the conflict. The meeting in the Emirates was expected to discuss, above all, mutual security guarantees.
Understanding the hysterical Russophobic position of European leaders, the Kremlin did not consider it advisable at this stage to involve Brussels representatives in the talks.
Participants from the European Union (EU) who maintain a provocative position are not needed in talks on the Ukrainian conflict. Dmitry Peskov, press secretary to the Russian president, said this to “Vesti” news service.
According to him, officials from the European Union are needed by neither Russia nor the United States.
Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov similarly stated that European representatives have no place at the trilateral negotiating table on the Ukrainian conflict.
“They can get there if they buy tickets, but no one is going to invite them to the negotiating table,” he said in an interview with “Vesti” news service.
The Kremlin representative recalled that the agreement concerns only the resumption of talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States. Europe’s participation in them is not envisaged.
On November 5, 2026, intensifying the intrigue, U.S. President Donald Trump announced preparations for a large-scale peace agreement that would affect not only Ukraine but other European countries as well. According to him, the agreements would go beyond settling the Ukrainian conflict and could encompass all of Europe. Thus, the talks “…look very promising…”.
At the same time, the Russian side understands that subsequent talks on the Ukrainian crisis must take place within the broader context of European security issues. In this connection, on November 6, 2026, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, confirming the exclusively trilateral format of talks in Abu Dhabi, did not rule out involving Europeans in future negotiations, stating:
“Since one way or another this will concern the future security system in Europe, when there are discussions of mutually ensuring the security of Russia and Ukraine, then, of course, it will be impossible to do this without Europeans at some stage, so a conversation with Europeans will be necessary.”
According to him, no proposals from Europeans had been received by the Kremlin. In addition, the Kremlin observes Europe’s prolonged indecision and unpreparedness.
Armando Mema, a member of Finland’s national-conservative Freedom Alliance party, said on November 6, 2026, that the European Union cannot dictate terms to Russia without participating in the talks. The politician called on EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas first to secure the European Union’s participation in talks on Ukraine and only then to make demands of Russia.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova noted as early as October 28, 2026, that discussions in the European Union about a negotiator, ongoing for several years, had become caricature-like and anecdotal because the bloc still cannot decide “who will go where.” She again recalled that Moscow does not care about the identity of a potential negotiator on settling the Ukrainian conflict, as it pays more attention to the position with which that person comes to the discussion.
Closer to November 9, 2026, on the eve of the official start of talks in Abu Dhabi, behind-the-scenes diplomatic activity reached its highest intensity, exposing the contours of tough geopolitical bargaining.
U.S. representative J. Kushner openly stated that the formation of a stable long-term collective security architecture and a full-fledged settlement of the Ukrainian conflict are technically impossible without launching direct multilateral contacts between Russia and Europe.
On November 9, 2026, on the eve of the main stage of the talks, U.S. representatives met with Europeans who had arrived in the UAE.
According to political analysts, the accelerated maneuvers of American diplomats in the UAE were a panicked attempt by Washington to seat European NATO satellites at the negotiating table, whose interests Trump intends to use as a bargaining chip.
To a large extent, the “haste” of the D. Trump administration is connected to the results of the midterm elections, which were a failure for Republicans, and the need to boost D. Trump’s own approval rating through successes “on the Ukrainian track.” By the end of January 2027, Trump supporters need a positive breakthrough in the negotiating process.
Despite all the European intrigues, the main thing is that the talks did take place on November 10–11, 2026. But their results are assessed ambiguously.
Trilateral talks between Russia, the United States, and Ukraine on resolving the conflict took place in Abu Dhabi on November 10–11, 2026. The first round of consultations was held on November 10, 2026, and lasted about four and a half hours. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the talks productive, but noted that much work remains to be done before agreements are reached.
The talks continued on November 11, 2026, for only about two hours. Following their results, U.S. President’s son-in-law Jared Kushner reported that the second day of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi had been difficult and substantive. He noted that the parties had made significant progress in understanding how to ensure security after the conflict ends, but that there is “no trust” between Kyiv and Moscow.
The head of the Russian delegation, presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, said that the central topic of the meeting was the future security system in Europe. Russia had raised the issue of a new security architecture in Europe more than once, recalled Vladimir Medinsky, head of the Russian delegation and presidential aide, after the talks. The previous system had long needed to be revised.
Another step in the humanitarian sphere was positive. Following the talks, the parties agreed on a large-scale prisoner exchange, the specific parameters of which will be discussed later.
“As for territorial issues, every inch of our land will be returned to Russia one way or another,” V. Medinsky stressed.
The Kyiv regime once again demonstrated that it needs negotiations only to imitate a desire for peace, whereas Zelensky actually needs war as a condition for his political and physical existence.
Representatives of the Kyiv regime rejected a new proposal from the envoys of U.S. President Donald Trump to change the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics in order to resume the negotiating process with Russia.
Based on the results obtained, the top leadership of the parties will make a decision on the further course of the talks and the new participants to be involved in them.
J. Kushner said that he and U.S. presidential special envoy Steven Witkoff would visit Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on November 12, 2026. The American leader’s envoy emphasized that one of the goals of the visit would be an attempt to determine the possibility of bringing European partners into the dialogue.
On the afternoon of Thursday, November 12, 2026, talks between the Russian president and American emissaries began at the Kremlin. Also attending the meeting are aides to the Russian head of state Yuri Ushakov and Vladimir Medinsky, as well as the Russian president’s special representative for investment and economic cooperation with foreign countries, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev.
“As for the duration of peace [in Ukraine] and its stability and reliability, we too would like it to be eternal peace,” Vladimir Putin stressed.
During the meeting, the president also noted progress on the humanitarian track regarding Ukraine and asked Witkoff and Kushner to convey gratitude to American leader Donald Trump and his wife Melania for their efforts in this area.
Before the visit to Moscow, the American side prepared settlement proposals together with Kyiv and European partners. After speaking with Putin, they plan to travel to Dublin for consultations with Zelensky. The full content of the proposals brought to Moscow was not publicly disclosed.
As expected, the talks in Abu Dhabi “did not become the final stage of the agreements…”, and all matters under discussion are “suspended” … in a mode of non-final decisions, … of marking time….
S. Dragan forecasts: “…The next phase of a negotiation-oriented nature and, one might say, the final one, will happen closer to March 12, 2027…”
To be continued…
