A very exotic alliance of political forces
Forecast: Venezuela. Maduro. Truth and Lie. Development Forecast of Events (published on January 7, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
... The processes currently underway, which began around January 5, 2026, (from events in Venezuela), will have their own trajectory...
... And I see the accumulation of forces, even special power, for the creation of a new political architecture of authority, which can be read even with an unarmed eye. But things are not that simple in the long term. In essence, a very exotic alliance of political forces is emerging, which may currently have blurred forms and meanings. But for further advancement of this scenario, such a move was needed, not as a private seizure of economic priority with a resource-oriented future, but as part of a more multi-step political-economic game...
Forecast: «Global World Events in the Coming Months» (published on March 18, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
In essence, there is a potential that by July 9-18, 2026, Turkey will be touched by military-political events...
The first half of 2026, as S. Dragan predicted, fully demonstrates that events in Venezuela are «not just a private takeover of economic priority with a resource-oriented future, but rather part of a more multi-faceted political-economic game…».
And this «game» is the US against China, aiming to economically weaken its geopolitical rival by depriving it of its main cheap energy resources.
This pressure on China, if it was only carried out on Ukrainian territory since 2022 to weaken Russia as a «Sky-country» ally, is now being prioritized «on the field of the Middle East».
All this time, «forces have been accumulating, even special power for the creation of a new political architecture of authority, which can be read even with an unaided eye. But things are not so simple in the long run…».
The United States failed to replicate its Venezuelan "blitzkrieg," and they are seeking partners for a war against Iran, ways out of a war they themselves initiated, and the goal is not so much to achieve previously declared objectives, but at least to return to a pre-war level of relations, including the restoration of free navigation in the straits of the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea.
Paradoxically, the geopolitical balance has shifted during the Middle East conflict, which had "…vague forms and meanings..." just six months ago.
"In essence, a very exotic alliance of political forces has emerged and there is a potential for military-political events to impact Turkey...".
The intensification of Turkey's involvement in military-political events, specifically in July 2026, was discussed in three parts of the confirmation "Turkey's Political Trajectory in Mid-July 2026" on July 29 and 31, and August 7 of that year. However, this process did not stop for Ankara.
In July, a discussion that had lasted almost a year came to an end, and in early August, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed a new defense agreement aimed at maintaining regional stability. All three countries are interested in strengthening their own defense industries and containing external threats. There are no details yet about the commitments of the parties, but according to sources, the outcome of the negotiations between these countries was influenced by the crisis in the Middle East, caused by the confrontation between Iran and the United States.
Although the parties have not yet disclosed the details of the agreement, its essence is suggested by the composition of the participants. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are major states with a predominantly Sunni population, and one of these three countries also possesses nuclear weapons. Turkey and Pakistan also have a land border with Iran, while Saudi Arabia shares a border with the Islamic Republic through neutral waters in the Persian Gulf.
The agreement expands the defense alliance formed in 2025 between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. It stipulates that an attack on either party "by any military means" is considered an attack on both. While Pakistan seeks to avoid getting entangled in the Iran-US conflict, preferring to act as a mediator, the need for effective deterrence in the region is growing. The US-Iran war demonstrated that the toolkit for influencing Iran is limited, while the republic possesses a unique lever of pressure in the form of the crucial Hormuz Strait for the global economy.
As a result of such a pact, Pakistan's nuclear potential, ballistic capabilities, and human resources are combined with Saudi Arabia's financial influence and Turkey's advanced defense industry and military experience. The latter, according to sources, views the alliance as a necessary measure of hedging against the case when US capabilities become limited or Washington's own interests outweigh the needs of its allies.
The agreement may include joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, joint weapon production, and specialist training. For Turkey, it's an opportunity to expand its defense industry exports, for Pakistan, to strengthen the role of its armed forces in the Islamic world, and for Saudi Arabia, to diversify its suppliers and gain powerful allies against Houthi attacks.
The signing of this trilateral agreement is a long-term effort, but it offers clear benefits in the present. While it cannot be assured that the agreement will protect Riyadh from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, it will definitely safeguard Saudi assets within the kingdom from strikes.
Meanwhile, if the alliance proves successful, other nations may join. Based on shared interests, potential candidates could include Azerbaijan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. This could then form a full-fledged regional security system, akin to a "Mini-NATO" in the Arab world.
However, even if the number of members in the new defense alliance remains three, it still highlights the global trend of strengthening the role of regional alliances in place of declining global organizations.
While numerous NATO members struggle to maintain a unified front, small regional alliances find it easier to agree and «...form a very exotic alliance of political forces...».
(more on the topic to follow)
