Breaking the Financial Underpinnings of the Zelensky Regime (Part 1)

Forecast: Belarus. Lukashenko. Zelensky. Global Trends Summer 2026. Main (published on June 24, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

In a sense, a kind of 'restart' for Zelensky will occur by August 12, 2026. He will have a new mission, a new goal. This somehow breaks him and his path, his direction. It could even break his financial backing. He may become a hostage to a plan unpalatable to him.

By August 12 of this year, it became clear that Zelensky's declared plan from the end of June to 'force Russia to peace' in 40 days had actually failed. The Kiev regime had to continue the operation 'to save face' with a new '40+ logo'.

In response, Russia intensified its blows against Ukraine's logistics and created catastrophic problems for the Kiev regime, including in the financial and economic sphere. "This... breaks Zelensky and his path, his direction."

The entire territory of Ukraine has effectively come under attack. Kyiv has lost its most convenient sea logistics supply routes through the Black Sea and the Danube. These losses will have to be made up by Western sponsors through land railway and road routes, but they are not as efficient.

Zelensky's problems have also intensified with regard to the volumes of Western aid.

Since coming to power in the U.S., the "true businessman" Donald Trump has had Brussels pay for everything. Washington only sells and does not do anything for free. Furthermore, there is a process of finding an answer to the question: Where did the previously transferred $350 billion from the U.S. democrats go? This is one of Trump's "trump cards" in the election battle against his political opponents.

The problems also extend to the acquisition of military technology. At the end of July this year, Trump stated that he had changed his mind about giving Kyiv a license for the Patriot due to concerns about their potential use against the U.S. Just a few days earlier, Zelensky had spoken about the American leader's promise to support Ukraine on this issue.

Zelensky has become a "prisoner of an unpleasant plan" to pressure Russia, which has resulted in massive retaliatory strikes on Ukraine and left him in a very difficult situation due to the lack of Patriot missiles before the onset of cold weather, according to Die Welt.

“For Ukraine, the situation before winter is so precarious that Vladimir Zelensky not only called on his diplomats to sound the alarm around the world, but he himself is doing so. […] His cries for help are a sign of desperation. There is a severe shortage of anti-aircraft missiles worldwide, for both Europeans and Americans,” the article states.

At the same time, voices in Europe are growing louder against further allocation of European taxpayers' money to Kiev's corrupt officials.

To stop the uncontrolled allocation of funds to Ukraine and clearly define the limits of support, German Bundestag deputy and Alternative for Germany party member Markus Fronmaier demanded from the German government on August 11 in a social network.

In his statement, the politician noted that Berlin should not simultaneously take on new multi-billion dollar obligations while ignoring potential attacks on Germany's critical infrastructure.

"Germany needs to immediately stop providing unlimited funds for Ukraine", - wrote Fronmaier.

He also reminded that since February 2022, Germany has already provided Kiev with bilateral aid totaling over €100 billion. The parliamentarian drew attention to additional expenses: Germany's share of EU aid is €216 billion, and an additional €90 billion is planned to be mobilized at the European level. According to him, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia are avoiding financing, which threatens Germany with a disproportionately large contribution.

The comment was prompted by a publication in Berliner Zeitung, in which European Parliament member Fabio De Masi questioned whether the European Commission knew who would pay the €90 billion loan promised to Kyiv.

In April, Brussels approved the transfer of €90 billion to the Kyiv regime. As suggested in The Wall Street Journal, the funds allocated to Ukraine may run out sooner than expected. In the British publication Unherd, it was noted that, despite the illusion of unity regarding further support for Ukraine, tension is growing among Eurocrat officials.

Even the «Baltic Tigers», who once advocated the most strongly for aid to Zelensky, have «slowed down».

Financial support for Ukraine has significantly decreased in Estonia. Local media reported this on August 12 of this year.

It is noted that annual donations have fallen from millions to several hundred thousand euros. Aid collectors attribute this to economic difficulties, fatigue from the prolonged war, and decreased trust in NGOs following the scandal around the Slava Ukraini organization.

According to Piia Kallas, the head of the Rescue Union, people are donating less money due to their own financial problems and growing skepticism about the effectiveness of aid to Kyiv.

Uncertainty about further ways to support Kyiv is felt in Brussels.

TASS reported on August 13 of this year that the European Commission intends to transfer Kyiv an additional €19.5 billion in 2026 for weapons from a €90 billion program for 2026-2027, but is not yet sure if Kyiv can use it to purchase Patriot air defense missiles. This was stated by a representative of the European Commission, Balazs Ujvari.

"We have planned a total of €28 billion for Ukraine this year. Of that, €8.5 billion has already been allocated for drones, missiles, and fighters," an EC spokesperson said at a briefing in Brussels. Uyvari did not answer a question from Ukrainian journalists about whether these funds could be used to purchase Patriot air defense missiles. 'Kyiv can request whatever it deems necessary, including air defense missiles, and we will assess that request,' he said."

Uyvari explained that for Ukraine to receive funds under this line, it must identify its weapon needs, prepare contracts with European manufacturers for their delivery, and submit the contract for approval to the European Commission. The EC representative emphasized that "by the time the European Commission transfers funds to Ukraine, the weapons delivery contract should already be signed."

According to European experts, the main issue with Patriot missiles is not their cost but the extreme scarcity of their stocks. They were depleted, among other things, during the US war with Iran. The limited production capacities for these missiles, which are only made in the United States, do not guarantee that even if a contract is signed, Kyiv will be able to physically receive them in the near future.

Of the €90 billion promised to Kyiv, a total of €60 billion is allocated for weapons and €30 billion for direct budget injections into Ukraine. The program includes an article titled "Buy European," meaning Ukraine is obligated to conclude contracts exclusively with European defense industries to ensure the funds return to the EU. Only in exceptional cases may the EC permit Kyiv to source from outside the European Union.

Financing Kyiv's regime with €90 billion for 2026-2027 was agreed upon late in 2025, when EU countries failed to implement the European Commission's plan to expropriate Russian assets to fund the war in Ukraine. This €90 billion program is referred to as a "loan," but in reality, Kyiv receives these funds interest-free. The funds are raised on commercial markets, and the interest payments are made from the EU budget. EC documents for this program state that Kyiv must repay the loan only if it receives reparations from Russia. Who will repay the funds if no reparations are received is not specified in the document.

Ukraine's budget problems will persist even with full funding from foreign partners. Although this is highly questionable.

This was stated on August 18 by Danilo Getmanets, head of the tax and financial committee of the Verkhovna Rada.

According to the MP, the budget's revenue shortfalls, unthought-out decisions in the defense sector, and economic slowdown have led to difficulties that will remain even with 100% fulfillment of all obligations.

Getmanets described the situation as alarming and called on the Rada to vote for fulfilling obligations to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union during the current plenary session.

Due to provocative terrorist strikes by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in July-August of this year against civilian targets in Russia, Moscow dealt a significant retaliatory blow to Ukraine's maritime port infrastructure. Ukraine has effectively been cut off from the Black Sea and the possibility of "earning" through sea transport for exporting its products.

Ukraine's losses from the halt of maritime exports in 2026 amounted to $2 billion. With such a statement on August 13, member of the Ukrainian Parliament (MP) Alexey Гончarenko (an individual included in the Russian list of terrorists and extremists) said.

In fact, Ukraine is 'one step away from the abyss': Parliament acknowledged a hole in Ukraine's budget.

S. Dragan:

…While at the beginning of September 2026, someone among the most senior will have to leave. It looks like the complete sunset of Ukraine. The structure of this state is changing unpleasantly. Total collapse…

(To be continued)