Italy feels political turbulence
Forecast: “What are the prospects for the European Union? Clarification regarding certain countries and leaders...” (published August 6, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
Italy, too, may experience political turbulence starting as early as mid-August 2026. By the end of August 2026, the situation will heat up more and more, as if forcing Italy to make a political mistake. There will be provocations around Italy.
The situation in the country may become explosive around August 12, 2026. There may be provocations around Meloni at the end of August 2026, but for now she may even strengthen her position, especially by early September 2026...
Italy began experiencing political turbulence in mid-August 2026
On August 10, Politico reported that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was facing difficulties due to her support for Ukraine ahead of elections in the republic scheduled for 2027.
Meanwhile, the League party, which forms a parliamentary coalition with Meloni’s party, and Roberto Vannacci, leader of the opposition National Future party, advocate a softer stance toward Moscow and oppose military aid to Kyiv, as well as increased defense spending.
It is noted that Meloni’s position on Ukraine is precisely what distinguishes her most from her rival Vannacci.
A whole range of political parties and influential Italian political figures oppose Meloni.
In the first ten days of August 2026, around August 12, 2026, former Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, who leads the left-wing Five Star Movement, sparked a political scandal by questioning continued military support for Ukraine should a center-left coalition come to power after the next election.
Conte’s comments exposed deep internal contradictions within the left-wing camp on the Ukrainian issue ahead of the general election. According to Politico’s polling aggregate, the Five Star Movement and the center-left Democratic Party are neck and neck with the center-right bloc of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, while the Italian public shows little interest in supporting Ukraine.
In an interview with La Stampa, Conte stated that his party had initially supported military aid to Kyiv “given the clear military imbalance with Russia,” but now the party intends to “abstain during votes on new deliveries and insist on moving to a negotiating process.”
This indicates “political turbulence” in the country.
By the end of August 2026, the situation began to heat up
The EU has the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) program, a new emergency financial instrument of the European Union launched in May 2025. It provides up to €150 billion in favorable long-term loans to support joint procurement of military equipment and strengthen the EU’s defense-industrial base.
It was around this program that the provocative situation in Italy escalated in August 2026.
The Italian government demonstrated the true nature of a warmonger by submitting a request to the European Commission for a loan under the European SAFE rearmament mechanism, said Danilo Della Valle, a member of the European Parliament from the opposition Five Star Movement.
Italian Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani confirmed that Italy would request €8.9 billion from the SAFE fund instead of the initially proposed €14.9 billion.
“By sending the European Commission a letter requesting €8.9 billion in SAFE loans, Giorgia Meloni’s government reveals its true nature as a warmonger. Directing billions toward weapons, fighter jets, and military equipment while families and businesses are struggling to make ends meet is an immoral choice,” the politician’s statement said.
According to him, Italian families are now receiving their first electricity and gas bills for the summer months. Amid record temperatures and almost nonstop use of air conditioners, the amounts on the bills have become “a real bloodletting,” while the government has focused its agenda on an arms race, Della Valle noted.
“SAFE loans entail a significant increase in the public debt of participating countries, with repayment periods potentially reaching 45 years. For states with limited budgetary capacity, such as Italy, this poses a concrete risk to financial sustainability: these are military debts that will fall on the shoulders of future generations,” the MEP said.
In May, Italian media wrote that Italy would request less funding for armaments under the EU’s SAFE program. The newspaper Repubblica reported that the amount could total €4–5 billion, versus the previously envisioned €14.9 billion.
This decision was allegedly discussed amid disagreements between Rome and Brussels over energy policy. At that time, Meloni linked the country’s participation in the program to fulfilling Italy’s demand for greater freedom in financing energy expenditures.
Against the backdrop of individual statements about alleged threats from Russia, the Italian government acknowledges that there are no signs Moscow could attack European countries or NATO member states, Corriere della Sera reported.
The publication notes that some representatives of the Italian government speak of concern over threats from Russia and the escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, which could affect NATO countries. At the same time, Corriere writes, Italy’s Council of Ministers leadership is trying to avoid “dramatizing” the situation while monitoring its development.
The situation around Meloni became provocative
In Italy’s upcoming 2027 election, according to information available as of June 2026, the National Future party may become a competitor to Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
The party was created by retired General Roberto Vannacci and relies on the same talking points as Matteo Salvini’s League and Brothers of Italy, Meloni’s party. But Vannacci differs radically from them in that he advocates ending arms deliveries to Ukraine and support for Kyiv in general, and insists on the need to take Russian conditions for negotiations into account, including Ukraine’s neutrality.
Without the support of National Future, Meloni and Salvini will find it difficult to defeat the “left bloc.” However, including the party in the alliance will be provocatively dangerous and weaken support for Meloni’s and Salvini’s own parties.
All of the above indicates that there were provocations around Meloni as Italy’s leader at the end of August 2026, but by early September 2026 she had strengthened her position by virtue of her long tenure in office.
On September 4, 2026, Giorgia Meloni became Italy’s longest-serving continuously governing prime minister since Benito Mussolini, political scientist Henry Sardaryan wrote on his Telegram channel. According to the expert, her political career is particularly remarkable for Italy, where governments have traditionally been unstable. Coming to power in 2022 as a representative of hard-right populism, Meloni gradually shifted toward the center while retaining the support of the right-wing electorate.
“Economic growth remains weak, public debt is growing, and a new competitor is emerging on the right: the party of former General Roberto Vannacci. At the same time, Meloni’s Brothers of Italy remains in first place in the polls, while the opposition remains divided between left-wing forces and the populist Five Star Movement,” he noted.
Meloni’s main feature, in the political scientist’s view, is the gap between radical rhetoric and relatively moderate policy.
“Her government complies with EU budget rules, has reduced the deficit, supports Ukraine, and has built a working relationship with Brussels. In migration policy, the rhetoric is also considerably tougher than the practical actions: alongside restrictions, the authorities have allowed hundreds of thousands of foreign workers to enter,” Sardaryan stated.
Information emerged that Meloni would try to change her rhetoric during the election campaign. But Meloni’s associate and co-chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, Nicola Procaccini, denies that Meloni is “changing her policy to protect herself from Vannacci.”
The article’s authors noted that although Meloni presents herself as a “staunch supporter of Ukraine,” her dependence on League lawmakers has resulted in Italy allocating only €3 billion over four years, roughly equivalent to €1 per month for every Italian citizen.
Meanwhile, for example, Norway has provided Kyiv with $10 billion in military aid since the start of the special military operation and plans to allocate another $7 billion in 2026, Russian Ambassador to Oslo Nikolai Korchunov said in an interview with RIA Novosti. In 2027, this amount could be higher.
Fire- and explosion-hazardous situation
In addition to the worsening political situation, the situation in the country became “truly fire- and explosion-hazardous around August 12, 2026.”
A powerful explosion occurred at an ammunition plant in the city of Colleferro, 60 kilometers from Rome. No one was injured in the incident.
The enterprise where the explosion occurred belongs to the Franco-German KNDS group.
The plant near Rome, where a major fire and explosion occurred the day before, produced shells for tanks, mainly for Western European countries, the city hall of Colleferro, where the enterprise is located, told RIA Novosti.
“The plant made ammunition for tanks,” a city hall representative said.
Shortly before that, on the evening of August 7 in northern Italy, near the popular tourist resort of Lake Garda, a major forest fire broke out. The fire forced the evacuation of at least 200 people. The blaze occurred in the hilly area of the municipality of Tignale on the western shore. In August, because of heat and a number of other reasons, several more fires occurred across Italy.
Of course, autumn will reduce the degree of “fire hazard in nature,” but not in Italy’s political life. And S. Dragan forecasts:
But October and November 2026 may become critical months for her, Meloni...
To be continued...
