Strengthening Belarus’s position “in every sense”
Forecast: “Belarus. Lukashenko. Zelenskyy. Global trends of summer 2026. Main points” (published June 24, 2026, link).
S. Dragan:
Nevertheless, I do not rule out dramatic and dangerous moments for Belarus. And this precedent, in general, is aimed at destroying the former government and drawing this state into a war scenario. And it may well be that by the third decade of July 2026 this will become more obvious, or rather, it will even come close to the implementation of such a plan.
But none of this will catch the country off guard. Serious preparations and strengthening of positions will be underway there in every sense, especially militarily.
A number of earlier confirmations (May 25, May 28, June 1, June 19, June 30, and July 7) indicated that “dramatic and dangerous moments for Belarus are not ruled out. And this precedent, in general, was aimed at destroying the former government and drawing this state into a war scenario. And it may well be that in June–July 2026 this will become more obvious, or rather, it will even come close to the implementation of such a plan.”
“But none of this caught the country off guard. Serious preparations and strengthening of positions are underway there in every sense, especially militarily.”
July and August proved to be filled with decisions that noticeably completed the already established trajectory of adapting the Belarusian military system to protracted regional confrontation.
During these months, there were notable deliveries of equipment to the troops, an overhaul of the top level of military command, and the first public case of using the military training mechanism as an administrative sanction in the civilian sphere.
“The strengthening and consolidation of Belarus’s positions, especially in the military sphere” included rearmament primarily through modernization of Soviet models, making unmanned and counter-drone topics mandatory elements of combat training, personnel reshuffles in the Defense Ministry leadership, expansion of non-core functions of military commissariats, and a shift in international military cooperation toward bilateral cooperation with countries of the “far arc.”
In terms of arms deliveries, July and August were noticeably more eventful than May and June. The 37th Air Assault Brigade is being formed, and its creation may be completed by the end of 2027.
International military cooperation clearly shifted toward bilateral formats: only working-level and expert-level events were recorded through the CSTO, CIS, and SCO, the main one being the second round of staff talks on the autumn exercise cycle, while contacts with NATO states were absent.
The most intensive direction was Pakistan—an exchange of visits by the Air Force commander and the Chief of the General Staff within a single month. The Chinese track looks qualitatively new: in addition to a contract for training servicemen at the Military Academy, Belarus hosted a delegation from the Information Support Force of the People’s Liberation Army of China, which discussed building communications systems, cybersecurity, and the protection of command-and-control systems.
Among political statements, an address by A. Lukashenko stood out, once again describing tactical nuclear weapons not as “junk,” but as a serious factor of strategic deterrence.
Source: isans.org, August 5, 2026 “Review of military activity in Belarus for July 2026”
By the end of August, military development measures had been reinforced by practical operational training activities.
On August 25, operational-tactical exercises involving the branches of the Air Force and Air Defense began in Belarus.
Source: eadaily.com, August 26, 2026 “Large-scale Air Force and Air Defense exercises begin in Belarus”
At the conclusion of the exercises on September 11, 2026, Alexander Lukashenko announced plans to “shake up” the Belarusian army and continue inspecting it “up to mobilization.” According to him, troops must be ready for war in order to avoid it.
Source: belta.by, September 11, 2026 “Lukashenko confirms plans to continue troop readiness inspections”
At the same time, Lukashenko assured that Belarus is behaving pragmatically and does not intend to attack anyone. According to him, an attack on any neighboring country would be “tantamount to death” for Belarus. The republic is objectively incapable of winning a conflict with the “monsters” surrounding its borders, and therefore there is no point in starting a war, Lukashenko noted.
At the same time, the Belarusian president stated that the army is obliged to protect the country’s population and its territory.
Intelligence activities against Belarus are being conducted “quite openly, almost brazenly” amid aggressive rhetoric directed at the country, Lukashenko said.
He also stated that neighboring countries “are spending billions of dollars” to arm their armies. The Belarusian leader noted that European states are not only conducting exercises, but also creating new units that are being deployed on the border with Belarus.
“What is this? For us, military people, everything is quite clear. Therefore, as I once said openly and honestly, we need to prepare for war in order to avoid it. We must always be ready for an adequate response if something suddenly happens,” Lukashenko stressed.
Source: gazeta.ru, September 11, 2026 “Up to mobilization.” Lukashenko decides to “shake up” the Belarusian army”
The Baltic republics, following Brussels’ instructions, “have set their sights on destroying the Minsk government and drawing this state (Belarus) into a war scenario.” And this begins with economic pressure on Belarus.
During the Belarusian president’s conversation with the press, the issue of Riga’s plans to impose a 300% tariff on Belarusian and Russian grain was raised. The Latvian side is also considering the possibility of completely halting bus service with Belarus; similar measures are being discussed in Lithuania.
Lukashenko characterized the policy of the Baltic countries’ leadership against Belarus as “shooting oneself in the ear.”
“We were not particularly upset about the Baltic states before either... We will continue to live. The main thing is that they do not go crazy. They should not go crazy the way they do. It will come to communists coming to power. That is why they are no longer shooting themselves in the foot—they are shooting themselves in the ear,” he remarked.
Source: gazeta.ru, September 11, 2026 “Lukashenko sharply criticizes Baltic countries’ policy”
“Serious preparations and the strengthening of Belarus’s positions are underway in every sense,” including in the financial and economic sphere.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko held his fourth meeting in two years with U.S. Special Envoy John Coale. The diplomat promised to fulfill the Belarusian leader’s demand to return $44 million “stuck” in the American Citibank, which Minsk was supposed to receive for the supply of potash fertilizers.
According to information as of September 15, 2026, U.S. Special Envoy John Coale reported that Washington had asked Citibank to unblock and return Belarus’s assets. According to Coale, Washington is currently seeking legal and technical solutions to carry out this operation.
Source: iz.ru, September 15, 2026 “Trump’s envoy says the United States agrees to return frozen assets to Belarus”
Also, at the meeting with Coale, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko noted that the sides had already reached a considerable number of agreements concerning economic relations.
Source: eadaily.com, September 15, 2026 “Washington hears Minsk’s demand to ‘pay back the debt’”
In addition, Lukashenko stressed that Minsk is ready for dialogue with Washington on any issues and called on the United States to ensure that both sides “strictly comply with our agreements.”
Source: gazeta.ru, September 15, 2026 “This is a disgrace for the United States.” Trump’s envoy promises Lukashenko to return the “stuck” Belarusian money”
S. Dragan forecasts:
January 21, 2027—extremely strong pressure on Lukashenko. At this time, there is a particular danger for him personally. At the same time, there is very great strain in financial matters, major risks, and the likelihood of significant difficulties. But the theme of war is very strongly evident here. It is as if this theme forces him to completely change the global financial context and his future course in life. Essentially, military issues compel Lukashenko to seek very powerful military solutions.
To be continued...
