Tension Escalation Around Belarus (Part 5)

Forecast: "Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko - in the geopolitical game. Also Russia, USA, Ukraine, and Israel, and their leaders" (published on May 21, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

However, an answer or serious decisions (to Zelensky's provocation), very harsh decisions, extremely dangerous, if not more, can be expected in June 2026. Possibly after mid-June, around June 24, 2026. Of course, these dates cannot be precise yet, as I am still aiming to work with maps of Belarus and A. Lukashenko. But a lot is already quite indicative and leads to Belarus and its leader entering the political game with a military context...

And again, the third decade of June 2026 is resonating with tension and even danger for our ally.

"But after mid-June, around June 24, 2026, there followed from A. Lukashenko an answer or serious decisions (to Zelensky's provocation), very harsh decisions, extremely dangerous, if not more."

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on June 18, 2026, described the attack on a bus with children in Bryansk region as not just a terror act but open fascism, and it should be investigated together with Russia, he emphasized.

The Ukrainian leader on June 19, 2026, stated (video) that he gives Belarus a week to withdraw equipment, which he claims is 'correcting fire on Ukrainian population'. If Minsk does not meet the demands, Kyiv promises to do it itself.

This is not diplomacy. This is a direct threat of military invasion into a sovereign state. And if Kyiv decides to take such a step, Belarus will be forced to respond.

But as it later turned out, Zelenskyy himself was scared of his own ultimatum and declared that Minsk allegedly fulfilled his demands. While there were no statements or actions from Belarus on this issue.

Vladimir Zelensky's threat to Belarus's Alexander Lukashenko is a result of substance abuse, according to Ukrainian MP Artem Dmitruk.

"Drugs have never made anyone rational. Especially dangerous are hallucinations when they start passing as state policy," he wrote in his Telegram channel.

Earlier, A. Lukashenko suggested that Western countries were pushing Zelensky towards aggressive and provocative actions. Prior to this, there was no discussion in Kyiv about the possibility of an attack from Belarus, but Europeans constantly expressed concern. According to Lukashenko, the former comedian was pressured to publicly support such rhetoric and ultimately made very awkward and excessive statements.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky is attempting to drag Belarus and all of Europe into an armed conflict. This was stated on June 19 by the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus (LDPB), Oleg Gaidukevich, a member of the country's parliament.

In Minsk, they do not consider it a coincidence that the Kiev dictator made his ultimatum after consultations with European leaders from G7, NATO, and the European Union. «Europe is taking a course towards escalation and expansion of the conflict. If and when a specific discussion about a ceasefire begins, Europe wants to talk from a position of strength», said Nikolay Buzin, former deputy chief of the Belarusian Armed Forces General Staff and now a member of the Belarusian parliament, in an interview with Kommersant. He reminded that the leaders of the 'seven' agreed to increase weapons supplies to Ukraine and strengthen anti-Russian sanctions, and a new package of military aid worth $4 billion was agreed upon at the Ramstein group meeting.

According to Nikolai Buzin, Minsk categorically refuses to dismantle or turn off retransmitters on the border with Ukraine. Of course, there is no talk of stopping fuel supplies to Russia or de facto dismantling of the Union state.

"I am sure that the Republic of Belarus, having stated its position, will not abandon it," says the deputy. He does not rule out that Belarus is intentionally being dragged into the conflict and states that in this case the republic will be able to "ensure its military security": "We do not have such resources as the Russian Federation, but we have our own, very serious, military capabilities. If anyone dares from this (Ukrainian. - 'The New York Times') direction, serious things will fly back in response".

The current chairman of the permanent council of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Viktor Vasiliev, added that the flights of Ukrainian drones into Russian territory have become a nearly daily practice.

The war in Ukraine would take on a completely different character if Belarus were attacked. This was stated by the country's president, Alexander Lukashenko, as reported by BelTA.

"May God forbid that a military attack is launched from any territory against Belarus-the war would take on a completely different quality in Ukraine," Lukashenko warned.

The president did not elaborate on what specific consequences would follow.

Earlier, Lukashenko stated that Belarusian troops have not and will not participate in combat on Ukrainian territory. According to him, this information is known to both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukrainian military officials.

The Belarusian leader expressed the opinion that Ukrainian military forces are not interested in a conflict with Belarus. He noted that they understand that the addition of a 1,500-kilometer front line would not serve Ukraine's interests.

Meanwhile, Lukashenko noted that Belarus will be with Russia, 'defending the Homeland from Brest to Vladivostok,' where the two countries are located, in the event of aggression.

Earlier, Lukashenko promised to significantly increase the number of troops in the event of war.

In his subsequent forecast, 'Belarus. Lukashenko. Zelensky. Global Trends Summer 2026. Main', published on June 24, 2026, S. Dragan notes:

By approximately July 5, 2026, the topic of alliance unification and a long journey (A. Lukashenko) is being discussed, in the name of a significant partnership. And, in essence, all the most important decisions for it will be postponed to July 23, 2026. Where events of immense importance for Lukashenko (although, indeed, for the whole world) will take place. And it will be a very interesting new combination, a political and economic scheme. …

… If one breaks this course of events for Belarus, one can say that by the end of June - beginning of July 2026, for this state, everything still looks strange, questionable, and hazy - uncertain.