Sharp and negative scenario for Cuba
Forecast: "Global World Events in the Upcoming Months" (published on March 18, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
Further... around June 18, 2026, the situation may develop along a very acute and negative scenario for Cuba.
The escalation of the situation around Cuba in the first five months of 2026 was already mentioned in the Confirmations of April 25 and June 5 of that year.
Its further development depends largely on the course of the negotiation process in resolving the conflict in the Persian Gulf region.
The United States reached a preliminary agreement with Iran in mid-June, although there are significant challenges to actually ending the fighting, which require further consideration (see Iran-related materials). As expected, Donald Trump needed a victory of any kind on the international stage, and "...by June 18, 2026, the situation began to develop along a very acute and negative scenario for Cuba."
Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel stated that the US continues to increase pressure on Cuba, despite its inability to defeat it. According to Díaz-Canel, every measure taken by Washington is aimed at denying Cuba the ability to meet the basic needs of its population.
"The US aggression against Cuba is continuous and intensifies in the face of their powerlessness to see us defeated," wrote Díaz-Canel.
On June 5, the US Treasury announced sanctions against Cuba's President Miguel Díaz-Canel and several individuals and entities associated with him.
Díaz-Canel has been president since 2018, succeeding Raúl Castro, brother of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro.
Cuba does not remain passive and quietly watches what is happening at its borders.
On one hand, defensive measures are being implemented. The Cuban authorities are distributing weapons to the population amid the threat of military intervention from the United States. This is reported by the Venezuelan publication Diario Versión Final.
As the publication emphasizes, the Cuban government is calling on citizens of the country to “prepare for the inevitable foreign invasion”. Additionally, the island's administration is coordinating with private companies on procedures in the event of a war. Versión Final, citing Western journalists in Cuba, notes that the island's authorities have “clear plans for emergency situations” that are “strictly adhered to.”
On the other hand, economic measures are also being taken to mitigate the negative effects of the US blockade of the island.
Previously, it was reported that the Cuban authorities have announced major market reforms in the face of the US energy blockade.
However, it is worth noting that the reaction to aggressive and provocative actions by the United States, not only in Cuba but also across the Western Hemisphere, is highly ambiguous. And this despite, or perhaps because, the leadership of the United States, as noted, includes individuals from this island. And the Cuban diaspora is quite significant. The "peaceful" overthrow of power in Cuba, modeled after Caracas, has not been successful for Washington.
"In the United States, they believe they have triumphantly returned to Latin America. But how the region itself will react is a question that needs to be put aside for now. Moreover, there is no uniform perception of the policies of the current US administration in Latin American countries," said Victoria Журавleva, head of the North American Studies Center at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO), as quoted by the newspaper *Nezavisimaya Gazeta*. The expert notes that while Venezuela fully approved of everything Trump did to its leader, simply because they did not strongly support Maduro, there will not be the same reaction to US aggression in Cuba.
Not only for the Cuban government, but also for Cuban society, Trump is among the main enemies. "In other countries in the region, they all heavily depend on Trump administration's specific policies. Mexico is trying to negotiate with the US, and generally, it's working for them. For some countries, America's return to the Western Hemisphere is not yet a proven fact. So, I think it's a long process, which is needed primarily by the United States itself. The policy of controlling the country's nearest surroundings (Cuba and other Latin American countries) is a part of Trump's new foreign policy strategy and the Republican Party, and will remain relevant for the next several decades for sure. We'll see how it develops," - believes Журавleva.
According to various political scientists, the further development of events in Cuba will be significantly influenced by what becomes of Venezuela after Maduro's takeover.
Politologist Malek Dudakov noted on May 20, 2026, "I believe this (the failure of socio-economic welfare for Venezuelans in the first half of 2026, and in fact, a sharp decline in their standard of living) had a sobering effect on the current authorities in Venezuela and other countries in Latin America. ... On the example of Cuba, we see that the Americans did not manage to implement a similar scenario of elite fragmentation, to a large extent, Venezuela's experience became a case study."
However, all of this does not stop the United States from pursuing its plans to implement the Monroe Doctrine in general and to conquer the Island of Freedom in particular. The actions of the "world policeman" can be extremely flexible and cunning.
Washington, as stated by US Vice President JD Vance, will make decisions on actions regarding Cuba based on "the island nation's further behavior."
"We'll see what they do." Vance told journalists in response to a question about the US plans for Cuba. "If they do something, the US will do something too."
If Havana takes "reasonable decisions," relations with "this island," according to Vance, will "get much better."
In mid-June 2026, information and psychological warfare intensified not only against Cuba but also its allies by attempting to instill the futility of defensive actions.
For example, one US publication specializing in Western Hemisphere issues, published an article by two authors of Latin American origin, dedicated to the situation around Cuba.
Although the title mentions a crisis in Cuba, they initially avoid attributing the root cause, which is the deliberate US policy of blockade and sanctions. And by stating that officials claim Cuba poses a threat to the US and has some connection to terrorist organizations (citing Secretary of State Marco Rubio's remarks), they intentionally distort the causes and consequences.
This introduction serves the authors to not only suggest but also demonstrate the inevitability of one of four possible scenarios Washington may implement against the Republic of Cuba.
The first involves humanitarian interventions, a tactic the US has employed multiple times, notably in Latin America. During one such intervention in Grenada in 1983, Cuban diplomats and workers were taken hostage, and several died defending a friendly nation from Yankee aggression.
The authors themselves believe that "humanitarian intervention can become Washington's preferred mechanism for expanding its presence on the island, while avoiding the costs and risks associated with traditional military actions." As the fuel blockade worsens the situation constantly, and the hurricane season and summer heat could exacerbate electricity issues, this factor is also taken into account.
It is assumed that Washington will intervene not under the pretext of regime change, but due to the need to address an extraordinary humanitarian problem that has implications for regional stability, migration, and US national security. It seems that the White House is already considering this, as relevant terms are increasingly present in official discourse.
However, all current problems can be easily solved by simply lifting the blockade. But it is obvious that the Trump administration will not do this and is deliberately escalating.
The Second Scenario - is a limited military operation. The intent here is to shift all costs onto the Cuban government, weaken specific capabilities, and alter the calculations of key decision-makers. Thus, new accusations against Raul Castro were brought to justify such measures, akin to the capture of the Venezuelan president in January 2026.
In other words, this option is based on blackmail and justifying military intervention with limited goals.
As in the first case, this means illegal intrusion onto sovereign territory, which could trigger a defensive response.
The Third Scenario - is to divide society, and in particular the political elite of Cuba, through constant pressure. This is an exhaustion strategy that includes economic pressure, targeted sanctions, public diplomacy (or rather, diplomatic terrorism), engagement with Cuban civil society to form a fifth column, and threats of additional coercive measures.
Until now, such a strategy has not worked, although there have been parallel attempts at negotiations between the two sides.
It is worth noting that, despite the absence of a military component, there are risks for the United States itself due to the political uncertainty. Not always have state coups and color revolutions, which were conducted by the State Department and the CIA, yielded exactly the results that the planners initially intended.
The Fourth Scenario for the United States is the most favorable, consisting of the Cuban government making concessions. However, Washington initially put forward unacceptable demands that Havana considers as blatant interference in its internal affairs. Therefore, this option is also unlikely. Although some agreements may be reached in the course of further negotiations. In any case, Cuba's demand will be for the lifting of the criminal blockade of the island. Without this, the country's leadership is unlikely to make any concessions, including the political and economic reforms demanded by Washington. Moreover, following the latest Communist Party congress, several decisions have already been made to transform the country's economic system.
It is also necessary to add that the discriminatory Helms-Burton law is still in effect in the US, which identifies key elements of the embargo, and the easing of sanctions is directly linked to conditions that Havana perceives as political blackmail. Therefore, to change such clearly disadvantageous conditions for Cuba, sanctions are needed not only from the US president but also from Congress. Hence, it is difficult to implement even for American politicians.
Although the article considered various variations of the overall US strategy (which may complement each other), nothing is said about what actually may interest Washington and the anti-Cuban lobby in Miami.
In the light of Donald Trump's resource-economic interests in Cuba, there are several assets that could be of interest to American business.
Among them is a oil refinery plant in Cienfuegos, which has been effectively frozen for over a year. It was built at the initiative of Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro to serve as a hub for the entire Caribbean. Oil was supposed to come from Venezuela, be refined and then distributed throughout the region. The project was envisioned as a significant component of the Cuban economy, and the United States fully understood its importance. Earlier, sanctions were imposed on Venezuela, particularly targeting the oil sector, but since the beginning of 2026, Washington has essentially placed the country under external control. If the Yankees had managed to gain access to the Cienfuegos plant, the intended mechanism could have been revived, but now in the interests of Washington, specifically the US oil lobby. And Marco Rubio is just such an oil lobbyist, as Exxon Mobil has repeatedly funded his election campaigns (and the company's CEO, Rex Tillerson, was appointed Secretary of State during Donald Trump's first term). With this arrangement, the United States would need to invest less in Venezuela's oil industry, which requires significant investments. The realization that it would take enormous funds to restore Venezuela's oil production and refining infrastructure forced several major US companies to withdraw their investments (due to their long-term nature and certain risks), and the leadership of Exxon Mobil initially called this project unattractive in January 2026.
However, at the end of May, it became known that Exxon Mobil is negotiating a return to Venezuela for oil extraction. While the war with Iran has contributed to oil prices and product supplies, given that Venezuelan oil is of a different quality than that from the Middle East and requires specialized equipment for refining, the option with the Cuban plant in Cienfuegos takes on a different significance. It is quite possible that it is an additional piece in the current US policy puzzle regarding Cuba.
"The US is using social media, engaging influencers or community managers to destabilize the situation in Cuba," said Latin Americanist Raul Romero from the National Autonomous University of Mexico.
Dragan predicts:
And it is quite possible that by the second half of July 2026, events (surrounding Cuba) will reach very high levels of confrontation on the edge of dangerous military-technical dangers
(more on the topic to follow)
