The tense situation around Iran escalated by early July 2026

Forecast: Outlines of the Global Future (published on February 9, 2026, links)

S. Dragan:

Pressure on this country will increase closer to May 18, 2026. Although negotiations will continue until the end of May 2026. But they will not satisfy many.

The situation in Iran will again become dangerous closer to the beginning of July 2026.

In the "Confirmations" of events in Iran in May-June this year, it was noted that "pressure on Iran will increase closer to May 18, 2026. Although negotiations will continue until the end of May 2026. But they will not satisfy many."

Information about what happened during that period of time was most contradictory.

In late May - early June, active efforts were made to achieve a peaceful agreement between Washington and Tehran. Its full content remains a secret.

According to Tehran's information, the framework agreement (Memorandum) of June 17, 2026, between the US and Iran envisages the creation of a $300 billion private investment fund to stimulate investments in the Iranian economy, Reuters and Bloomberg report, citing a source familiar with the negotiations.

At the same time, Trump denied reports of planned payments to Iran yesterday, calling them false. However, the US leader did not specify which publications prompted his comment.

The United States holds a differing view on the causes of the situation's escalation at the end of June 2026.

On June 26, 2026, US President Donald Trump accused Iran of violating the ceasefire regime in the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, Tehran launched at least four kamikaze drones at ships in the Strait of Hormuz. One of them struck directly into the upper deck of a large, expensive cargo ship, but it was able to continue its journey.

At the same time, the other three drones were shot down by US military, Trump clarified.

As emphasized by the American leader, the incident is a reckless violation of the ceasefire agreement between Tehran and Washington.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM) previously reported strikes on Iranian missile and drone storage facilities, as well as coastal radar stations. CENTCOM stated that the operation was in response to Iran's attack on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz.

Media previously reported that the passage through the Strait of Hormuz may become toll-based.

On June 26, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance warned Iran that the US will respond with violence to violence.

Previously, the Axios portal, citing a senior U.S. official, reported that the United States launched strikes against Iranian targets in the Strait of Hormuz following accusations from President Donald Trump that Iran had violated the ceasefire regime.

The situation around the U.S.-Iranian settlement resembles a calm before the storm. The Axios portal reported that Washington and Tehran allegedly agreed to stop the exchange of strikes and even planned consultations in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on June 30, 2026, to resolve disagreements, particularly regarding the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. However, the Iranian Foreign Ministry quickly denied reports of an upcoming round of negotiations. Experts see the current events as more of a tactical pause than a step towards lasting peace.

The main risk factor, capable of burying any de-escalation efforts at any moment, according to military expert and former UN Biological Weapons Commission member Igor Nikulin, is Israel. In an exclusive comment to aif.ru, the specialist expressed his conviction that Tel Aviv is playing the role of a "detonator" for the entire region.

"I believe Israel will disrupt the ceasefire. As it usually does. Until Trump finds the reins on Netanyahu, there will be no lasting peace in the Middle East. Israel is the detonator for the Middle East region. It was designed for that, as was the control over the region's oil," - said Nikulin.

However, in an effort to boost the ruling clan of Washington's popularity, successes in the negotiation process are already being declared at the beginning of July 2026.

The Bloomberg agency, citing a senior US administration official, reported that Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner had positive talks with regional leaders in Doha.

According to the source, "progress is continuing" in certain technical negotiations that are not at a high level.

But these are once again just words and preliminary agreements that, as reality has shown, are not ultimately implemented.

S. Dragan:

And this is for the long term; at least spring 2027 looks critical for Iran.