Turkey's Political Trajectory in the Middle East War (Part 1)

S. Dragun's forecast "Global World Events in the Next Few Months" (published March 18, 2026, link) included the following predictions regarding Turkey and its President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan:

By March 2026, around the 7th-8th of March, Turkey's involvement in the Middle East conflict was already evident and irreversible. At this time, there was also a critical moment when Turkey might be facing covert blackmail.

By March 30th, 2026, Erdoğan will also be faced with difficult, possibly harsh circumstances, where he will need to develop his political strategy and determine his future course of action.

By April 3rd, 2026, Recep will have to maneuver and seek an opportunity to maintain the balance between two power poles, but this will not be sustainable for long.

Balancing will not be possible. He will be forced to find a way - an idea that could change the political game significantly. By around April 12th, 2026, Turkey might be under significant pressure. Of course, it's unclear whether this will manifest in political or natural processes, but there is reason to assume political pressure.

Confirmation: Rocket attacks on Turkish territory (March 2026)

The situation in the Middle East turning into regional chaos, triggered by the US and Israel's attack on Iran, has become a threatening matter for Turkey. From March 4 to 30, 2026, four ballistic missiles were shot down by NATO's air and missile defense systems in Turkey's airspace above Hatay, Gaziantep, and Adana.

"At this time (early April), there was a certain tense moment when Turkey could have been facing hidden blackmail" - who and for what purpose attacked its territory with ballistic missiles? There is no clear answer to this as of today.

After the first incident - "around March 7-8, 2026" - Turkey responded quite firmly. The Iranian ambassador was summoned to the Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs for explanations, and the Turkish Ministry of Defense issued a statement, emphasizing Turkey's support for regional stability and peace, while also noting that the country's determination and capabilities to ensure the security of its citizens are at the highest level.

"We are capable of ensuring the security of our territory and citizens, regardless of who or where the threat comes from. Any steps aimed at protecting our airspace will be taken decisively and without hesitation. We remind that we reserve the right to respond to any hostile actions directed against our country" - the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey stated.

Despite Ankara's and NATO's statements that the missiles were launched from Iranian territory, official Tehran categorically rejects these accusations. In a statement made through state media, the Iranian Armed Forces stated that they respect Turkey's sovereignty and did not launch missiles at Turkish territory. President Peshkiyan and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also stated: "We did not launch missiles, we did not target Turkey."

The new Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, emphasized that "attacks on Turkey and Oman are a trap set by the Zionist regime, which wants to sow discord between us and our neighbors."

Diplomatic circles warn that if attacks continue, there is a risk of a serious crisis in relations between the two countries. Turkish authorities have emphasized that in the event of a repeat of the violations, the necessary measures will be taken, and have stated the need to clarify the technical aspects of the incident. The Iranian side, in this context, has proposed a joint technical investigation.

One of the critical points, to which diplomatic circles are drawing attention, is Turkey's membership in NATO. According to diplomatic sources who spoke to Reuters, if the attack is deemed a direct attack on Turkey, the issue could be shifted to the realm of the country's NATO membership, with all the ensuing consequences. Therefore, the language used by Ankara is extremely cautious, and actions are taken within the delicate balance between its own security and membership in the alliance.

What was the actual purpose of the missiles? On this issue, both Western press and national security experts have various theories. Some analysts claim that the true target of the ballistic missiles, which flew on a wide trajectory at high altitude from Iran, could have been neither Turkey nor any other target, but rather the American forces concentrated in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as British and American bases on the Greek part of Cyprus.

This view is shared by the retired Brigadier General Haldun Solmaztürk, who believes that a direct attack by Iran on Turkey is unlikely, and it's more probable that the missile entered Turkish airspace on its way to another target.

This is also connected to the theory that the Iranian-launched missiles might have deviated from their course due to electronic interference, guidance errors, or a rushed launch.

However, another widely discussed topic in the Turkish media space is the possibility of provocation. Analysts from the Turkish publication Aydınlık, discussing the latest incident of an Iranian missile interception over Turkish territory, point out that if Iran's actual target was the Turkish radar base at Küredjik (located in Malatya and shared with NATO allies), the missile would have been launched not from the eastern Caspian Sea, which is 1400 km away from Malatya, but from a more advantageous position in Tabriz (450 km flight distance to Malatya). In their view, this would be a planned "operation under false flags," with the ultimate goal of drawing Turkey into war by framing the situation as if Iranian missiles are targeting Turkey. Experts, warning that further provocations of this nature are possible in the near future, do not rule out, among other things, damage to the Küredjik radar facility.

As the main potential actor behind the alleged Iranian attacks on Turkey, many experts name Israel. Thus, in an interview with the newspaper Yeni Akit, retired intelligence colonel Joshkun Bashbug stated that Israel aims to further spread the war to the region, which will facilitate the Zionist project to weaken and fragment neighboring Arab states, followed by an expansion of Israeli territory. In Iran, according to him, there is a sufficiently strong parallel structure that acts jointly with Israel and the US. "Consecutive missile strikes from Iran should be viewed in this light," Bashbug emphasized. "The goal of the attacks is to drag Turkey into a quagmire, involve them in a dirty game."

A similar view is expressed by foreign policy analyst Dr. Mustafa Oztop: "The goal of America and Israel is to drag the region's countries into war." According to him, the attempt to involve the UK in military actions by launching a "mysterious" rocket at Cyprus supports this thesis.

There is a possibility that Iran's missile attacks on Turkey are orchestrated by third parties, acknowledged by Turkey's highest leadership. Indeed, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, commenting on the situation involving the interception of a third missile, stated: "We are taking the necessary preventive measures against any threats endangering our airspace, as was the case last night." He further emphasized: "We are acting very cautiously to counter provocations and traps that seek to drag our country into war."

Thus, in "difficult, perhaps harsh circumstances" where Erdoğan "will need to develop further strategy for his political trajectory," he has "decided with whom he will act from here on."

Speaker of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, Numan Kurtulmuş, commenting on reports of missiles allegedly launched from Iran towards Turkey, stated that Iran has no national interest in striking Turkey with missiles. He also suggested that this could be a provocation by forces seeking to involve Turkey in a conflict.

Confirmation: Erdoğan Maneuvers Between Two Power Poles (April 3-4, 2026)

As predicted by S. Dragans, "by April 3, 2026, Recep had to maneuver and seek to preserve the balance between two power poles." This power balance concerns not only the struggle in the Persian Gulf but also on Ukraine - these two wars are closely interconnected.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, during talks with Ukrainian regime leader Volodymyr Zelensky in Istanbul on April 4, 2026, emphasized the importance of ensuring safe navigation in the Black Sea.

"During the meeting, President Erdoğan stated that Turkey will continue to support negotiations between Ukraine and Russia as our region needs more peace and stability" - the Turkish leader's office reported on its website.

Erdoğan added that Ankara considers ensuring reliable energy supply important, and also attaches great significance to the security of ships in the Black Sea.

On April 4, 2026, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a phone conversation with NATO Secretary-General Marco Rutte, made a significant statement, assessing the current situation around Iran as leading to a geopolitical impasse.

Ankara believes that military intervention has not resulted in a swift victory but has rather cornered the situation, making an easy way out impossible.

"President Erdoğan noted that the process, which began with intervention in Iran, has led to a geopolitical impasse, and the international community must step up its efforts to end this war" - the official statement reads.

This observation is particularly important given that Turkey is a key NATO member, controls the Black Sea straits, and shares a border with Iran to the east. Escalation at its doorstep directly threatens the country's national security, which is why Erdoğan spoke so directly about the futility of the military path.

Confirmation: Turkey under significant pressure - forecast for April 12, 2026

S. Dragan particularly noted the middle of April: "Balancing won't be possible. And he will be forced to find a way - an idea that should change a lot in the political game. After all, by around April 12, 2026, Turkey may be under significant pressure. Of course, one needs to understand how this will manifest - in political or natural processes - but there is reason to assume political pressure."

This pressure from Israel eventually forced Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to make a sharp statement against Israel on April 12, 2026. He accused the Jewish state of committing atrocities against civilians in Lebanon and Palestine. The Turkish leader touched on this topic during the International Conference of Asian Political Parties in Istanbul.

Erdoğan pointed out that Israel had carried out a series of strikes on Lebanese territory even after the declaration of a ceasefire in the Middle East conflict. According to information provided by the Turkish leader, 1.2 million Lebanese have been forced to leave their homes due to Israeli strikes.

Erdoğan characterized Tel Aviv's actions as "barbaric."

"A bloodstained network of genocide continues to kill innocent children, women, and civilians without any rules or principles, ignoring all forms of human values" - quotes his words the Jerusalem Post.

The politician also stated that Turkey could deploy its troops into Israeli territory if the Jewish state maintains an aggressive stance towards Palestine.

"Just as we entered Libya and Karabakh, we can enter Israel. Nothing prevents us from doing so" - said Erdoğan.

The previous day (before April 12, 2026), Turkey's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan suggested that Israel would likely aim to declare Ankara its new adversary. He stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu simply cannot exist without an enemy.

Forecast for the Near Future

S. Dragun predicts further escalation of the situation around Turkey and its president:

By April 23, 2026, there will be provocative games around Erdogan, and he himself may be quite maneuverable. And by around April 26, 2026, a whole coalition of influential leaders will gather around him, forming a new political format and plan. And by the beginning of May 2026, specifically around May 2, 2026, some very important steps will be taken that will determine the further direction in which Erdogan will move and from which it will be impossible to turn back.

In essence, there is potential for military-political events to affect Turkey by July 9-18, 2026.

(continued)