A New European Configuration

Forecast: “What the prospects for the European Union look like. Clarification regarding certain countries and leaders” (published August 6, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

And closer to the end of August 2026, some new coalition or a new European configuration with new rules and relationships may begin to take shape...

The problems of the European Union and the potential threat of its collapse were noted in the Confirmations of September 18 and 22 of this year. However, as many political scientists acknowledge, the place of this union cannot remain vacant, and “some new coalitions or a new European configuration will begin to take shape.”

Trends associated with the idea of creating some new coalition or a new European configuration are only beginning to emerge, but they are becoming increasingly pronounced. And they are largely connected with the weakening of the EU as a unified organization.

At one time, talk of restoring Austria-Hungary intensified because, while still serving as Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán formed a kind of “bloc of dissenters” against the European Union’s policies together with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. However, all the countries mentioned, with Austria and Italy being exceptions to some extent, are distinctly national states. They value the national character of their countries, and that is precisely why politicians emerge there who come into conflict with the European Union’s “globalist” policies. Under no circumstances will they renounce their sovereignty in favor of some ephemeral Austria-Hungary.

Péter Magyar, leader of Hungary’s Tisza party, which won the parliamentary elections, intends to revive the Austro-Hungarian Empire on the world stage. The new prime minister plans to strengthen relations with neighboring countries, using their shared imperial history and existing economic ties as a foundation.

Politico published an article under the sensational headline “Magyar Wants to Put the Austro-Hungarian Empire Back on the Map.” The publication’s author drew this conclusion based on several statements by Hungary’s new prime minister.

According to Andrei Fursov, director of the Institute for Systemic and Strategic Analysis and a historian, the Vatican is eager to strengthen its influence in the Old World through the recreation of some semblance of Austria-Hungary.

Historian Ruslan Kalinchuk claims that the Vatican has its own sovereign geopolitical goal: recreating some semblance of the Austro-Hungarian Empire in Central Europe. To implement this plan, it is critically important for the Vatican to gain control over Galicia and, ideally, all of Ukraine.

According to Russian expert Mikhail Khazin, the Vatican will coordinate the creation of a new Austria-Hungary that will include Europe’s Catholic countries: northern Italy, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

Zelensky is constantly searching for some way to integrate Ukraine into the EU or another European formation or coalition. For him, drawing European countries into the war is the only way to somehow prevent Kyiv’s capitulation to Moscow.

In mid-September of this year, Zelensky announced the emergence of the “Carpathian Eight” format (C8), which unites Ukraine, Romania, Serbia, Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, and Hungary, as well as “the European Union as a whole.” He reported this on his Telegram channel.

Today, for the first time here in Ukraine, in our part of the Carpathians, there is a summit that unites all the Carpathian states, regions, and communities of our countries. We are launching a new C8 format—the Carpathian Eight—uniting us and our neighbors in Europe: Romania, Serbia, Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, and, of course, the European Union as a whole, Zelensky noted.

According to him, this format should bring the countries “even closer together” and create “another strong element of interaction” at the EU level in the areas of security and energy, “significantly expand” logistical capabilities, cross-border economic cooperation, and support for communities.

However, the leaders of Hungary and Slovakia immediately disagreed with Kyiv’s unilateral wish to create an eight-member group in the Carpathians.

Not all leaders attended the first meeting of the “Carpathian Eight.” Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico declined to attend, citing health reasons. Slovak Foreign Ministry State Secretary Marek Eštok arrived in his place. The leaders of Austria, Hungary, and the Czech Republic were also absent: they sent only representatives.

Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar explained Budapest’s refusal to join the “Carpathian Eight.” He stated that including Hungary, like any other country, in an international association without prior consultation or consent is unacceptable.

It is worth recalling that fantasies about new coalitions are not something new in Zelensky’s rhetoric.

Jarosław Kaczyński stated that in 2022, Ukraine wanted to create a single state with Poland because of the conflict with Russia. According to him, the Ukrainian authorities thus planned to become part of NATO. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed confidence that Poland would one day seize Ukraine’s western territories.

It should also be noted that, as an alternative to the EU, a number of opposition parties in leading countries also advocate for new European associations.

For example, the rising opposition party AfD advocates Germany’s withdrawal from the European Union. The party intends to create a new bloc of European countries for future further economic integration. Its plans include creating joint external border protection, a single economic space, and an independent policy within this association.

We do not see reform of the European Union. This structure is already so mired in corruption and self-serving interests that we say that, under current circumstances, the EU does not comply with any democratic norms. Brussels democrats are trying to usurp power and extend it to individual countries. Under these conditions, we say that we support withdrawal from the European Union, party members commented.

To a large extent, the “new rules and relationships” in the European Union manifested themselves during the decision-making process on extending anti-Russian sanctions, which was discussed by all EU members from late August to mid-September of this year.

Paris unexpectedly intervened in discussions on extending the European Union’s anti-Russian sanctions, supporting Bratislava’s initiative to remove several businessmen from the restrictive lists, Politico reports.

According to Politico, the European Union faced unexpected difficulties in trying to extend anti-Russian sanctions. The restrictions were set to expire on September 15 of this year, but the approval process stalled because of the position of two states, RIA Novosti reports.

Ambassadors are seeking to extend the validity of the EU’s sanctions lists against Russia before they expire on Tuesday, but Slovakia objects to key provisions, and now France has also intervened in the process, catching everyone off guard, the report notes.

It was previously reported that Bratislava supports lifting restrictions on Russian businessmen Alisher Usmanov and Mikhail Fridman. Paris later joined this initiative, supporting Usmanov’s removal from the blacklists. Individual EU sanctions were last extended in March 2026.

French authorities supported Slovakia’s initiative to remove Alisher Usmanov from European sanctions lists.

In the spring, ambassadors from European Union countries agreed to extend personal restrictions against Russian citizens until September 15 of this year without exceptions.

Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that anti-Russian measures were provoking a serious split within the union.

After a week and a half of negotiations, ambassadors from European Union member states removed investor and philanthropist Alisher Usmanov, banker Mikhail Fridman, and former rector of the Crimean Federal University Andrei Falaleev from the sanctions list. France’s position was decisive, while Slovakia and Luxembourg also lobbied for the Russians’ removal from the sanctions list.

Contrary to the wishes of the Kyiv dictator, a new trend has emerged—the termination of sanctions against individuals.

But to sweeten the pill somewhat for Kyiv, at the same time the European Union for the first time extended personal sanctions against about 3,000 Russian individuals and legal entities for three years at once.

S. Dragan forecasts:

…Yes, all of this (the transformation of the EU) may not happen so quickly, and we may see a more radical picture in this regard closer to spring 2027, probably around April 2027. But even before April 2027, there will be rather important, fateful stages hinting at the collapse of the European Union, namely around December 9, 2026. Although April 2027 will confirm this more clearly…

(To be continued)