April's Plot Related to the Fall of NATO (Part 3)

Forecast: "Iran - Interference of events and forecast of a broader spectrum for the near future" (published on March 6, 2026, link)

S. Dragans:

... the collapse of NATO ... may reach its peak of ruin ... with even more obvious signs of a grand split around April 25, 2026.

Problems with NATO were already discussed in Confirmations from April 7 and May 1, but around April 25, a series of events occurred that were related to "even more obvious signs of a grand split" within the alliance.

Moreover, from declarations of intent, US President has moved to practical steps to reduce his country's role in NATO and most importantly, to minimize financing for solving European problems.

US President Donald Trump ordered the withdrawal of 5,000 American troops from Germany at the end of April, The Wall Street Journal reported. The Pentagon explained that the decision was the result of a "thorough analysis" of the deployment of US forces in Europe. A Pentagon spokesperson, Sean Parnell, stated that the troops will leave Germany within the next six to 12 months.

The White House administration plans to redeploy one brigade combat team and reverse former President Joe Biden's decision to deploy a battalion of long-range rocket artillery in Germany, which was scheduled for the end of 2026. As The New York Times noted, the troop reduction will bring the number of American soldiers in Germany back to the 2022 level. Currently, there are over 36,000 US soldiers in Germany.

Senior Pentagon officials told CBS News that this decision signals President Donald Trump's dissatisfaction with the support provided by European allies to the US in the war against Iran.

According to Pentagon data, as of December 2025, there were also almost 1,500 reservists and 11,500 civilian employees at military bases in Germany.

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius commented on Washington's intention to reduce its military presence in Germany by approximately 5,000 soldiers. The minister stated that Europe should take more responsibility for its own security.

He noted that the US step was expected: "It was predictable that the US would withdraw troops from Europe, including Germany."

The decreasing importance of the US for its European allies is shown by the fact that in the last days of April, they warned European allies, including the UK, Poland, Lithuania, and Estonia, about serious delays in the delivery of American weapons: the war against Iran is depleting stockpiles. This is reported by Financial Times, citing sources.

According to FT, the Pentagon has informed countries about significant delays in several rocket systems, including ammunition for HIMARS and NASAMS. HIMARS is a high-mobility, howitzer-type, multiple-launch rocket system produced by Lockheed Martin, used in Ukraine, among other places; NASAMS is a medium-range, surface-to-air missile system co-produced by Raytheon and Norwegian company Kongsberg.

According to Reuters, the delays concern various types of ammunition used for both defensive and offensive purposes.

As FT specifies, the issue is specifically with rocket systems. Additionally, the newspaper reports that discussions are ongoing about shifting deliveries to Asia.

Some of the weapons were purchased by European countries through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program: it involves the purchase of U.S. weaponry with logistical support and approval from the U.S. government, but it has not reached the intended recipients. Sources indicate that notices of delay were sent in the last days of April.

The complete list of countries that have not received the weapons is not provided. Reuters sources clarified that it includes Baltic and Scandinavian countries.

NATO is facing the most uncertain period about its future since the Cold War, according to radio station NPR reporting in early May.

"The future of NATO is in the most uncertain period since the Cold War," the report states.

This, NPR suggests, is indicated by several signs. First, Washington's intention to withdraw American troops from Germany is raising growing concerns among NATO members about a potential permanent abandonment of the US alliance. Second, the current US administration's rhetoric about "invading Greenland" and "annexing Canada" has affected the trust of alliance members in Washington, the station adds.

Furthermore, as stated in the publication, due to NATO's significant military dependence on the US, it will be difficult for alliance countries to replace American capabilities, including in supporting Ukraine. At the same time, as noted in the article, it could take the countries of the alliance from 5 to 10 years to develop their own capabilities. Additionally, there is no obvious replacement for the US as the alliance's leader, NPR adds.

Previously, in late April, the Spanish newspaper Mundo reported, citing sources in the alliance, that NATO is facing one of its deepest crises amid the conflict in the Middle East and growing threats from US President Donald Trump, from which it is unlikely to fully recover.

(more on the topic to follow)