May 2026 will stop... Trump. USA: from war to maritime blockade
Forecast: "Iran - interference of events and forecast of a broader spectrum for the near future" (published on March 6, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
"The beginning of May 2026 will stop Netanyahu and Trump."
(The war in Iran will be paused).
As S. Dragan predicted, by the beginning of May, Trump and his Israeli ally will be forced to stop and cease active military actions against Iran.
In the last days of April, US President Donald Trump instructed his administration to prepare for a prolonged maritime blockade of Iran, according to The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials.
This involves a strategy to pressure the Iranian economy by restricting oil exports and maritime traffic. The decision was made after a series of discussions at the White House in the midst of the ongoing conflict and efforts to find an alternative to further military escalation.
According to WSJ, the decision to move towards a prolonged blockade was made at the latest White House meetings, including situation room briefings with key administration representatives.
As Reuters reports, the strategy involves restricting shipping to Iranian ports and cutting oil exports, which is intended to put pressure on Iran's economy and limit its financial resources.
The decision to halt renewed bombing is linked to the assessment of risks of further escalation. According to the WSJ, the White House believes that new strikes could lead to an expansion of the conflict and drag in additional regional players. Sources familiar with the matter note that Trump considered several scenarios for further action. Among them - resuming large-scale bombing, a quick exit from the conflict, or continuing pressure through economic means. Ultimately, the administration opted for the blockade, considering it the less risky option.
Moreover, the military campaign had already reached a significant scale. In February-March 2026, the US and Israel struck targets inside Iran, including infrastructure and military sites. This was met with retaliatory attacks from Tehran.
After this, the parties moved towards a temporary ceasefire, however, negotiations did not lead to agreements. Against this backdrop, the US administration began considering longer-term pressure tools not directly related to military action.
WSJ sources also indicate that the option of a complete withdrawal from the conflict "was deemed undesirable" as it would not allow Washington to achieve its key objectives regarding Iran's nuclear program.
An actual maritime blockade of Iran was imposed in April 2026 after the collapse of negotiations and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It includes monitoring ships heading to and from Iranian ports, as well as restrictions on oil exports - a key source of revenue for Tehran. US estimates suggest such measures could cost Iran hundreds of millions of dollars daily.
As WSJ writes, the blockade is already having a notable impact on the Iranian economy. Tehran is seeking ways to store oil and alternative supply routes to avoid a complete halt in production.
In turn, Iran is taking retaliatory steps. In particular, during the conflict, it restricted movement through the Strait of Hormuz - a key route for global oil trade, through which about 20% of global energy supplies pass.
The continuation of the blockade is already reflecting on global energy markets. According to Reuters, oil is rising for the eighth consecutive session. The cost of Brent reached $111.78 per barrel, while American WTI - $100.50.
On the US domestic market, the rise in energy prices is already reflected in fuel costs. The average price of gasoline, according to the WSJ, reached $4.18 per gallon - the highest level since the start of the conflict and approximately $1.20 higher than at the end of February. Similar estimates are provided by Reuters. Since the start of the military phase of the confrontation, gasoline prices have risen by more than 40%, increasing pressure on households and inflation.
The rising cost of fuel and the overall economic fallout from the conflict directly impact the political ratings of the administration. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, President Donald Trump's approval rating dropped to 34%, down from 36% in mid-April and 47% in January 2025. Only 27% of respondents approve of his economic policies, and support for measures to combat rising living costs stands at 22%.
Iran, with its resilience and self-sacrifice, repelled the initial armed aggression by the US and Israel and forced them to halt further military actions. The US is seeking other ways to pressure Iran, aiming to force it to accept the aggressors' ultimatum.
S. Dragan predicts that:
Pressure on this country (Iran) will intensify around May 18, 2026. Although negotiations will continue until the end of May 2026. But they are unlikely to satisfy anyone.
But for now, as of early May, D. Trump had to stop.
(continuation of the topic to follow)
