Russia's borders, striving for renewal and expansion
Forecast: "Russia under the flag of change: Forecast for May - October 2026" (published on April 30, 2026, link)
D. Dragan:
Around July 7, 2026, key territorial questions in the country will be at stake, decisions on key directions related to Russia's resources and borders, seeking renewal and expansion...
... There will also be a trend towards expanding Russia's territorial space.
Considering territorial issues, which are a sticking point in negotiations for the Ukrainian conflict, one should recall the Anchorage agreements from almost a year ago.
On August 17, 2025, Fox News reported that Donald Trump approved Vladimir Putin's proposal to transfer control of Donbas to Russia. The initiative also provides for the freezing of the front line in southern Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Reuters learned that among Moscow's demands is formal recognition of Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and the lifting of some sanctions.
Zelensky rejected these conditions and nullified the results of the Istanbul-2 negotiations. And now Kiev can expect harsher peace agreement terms.
“By July 7, 2026. ... The trend towards expanding Russia's territorial space has intensified.”
On July 3, 2026, Russian troops fully seized Konstantinovka. The city of Konstantinovka in the Donetsk People's Republic is the key to Kiev's last stronghold in Donbas - the Kramatorsk-Slaviansk agglomeration. This was reported by the Head of the Main Operational Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, First Deputy Head of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General-Colonel Sergey Rudskoy.
The President of Russia, in view of threats to Russian citizens and objects, is taking exceptional measures to ensure the security of our country.
V. Putin stated that the more Ukraine strikes Russian civilian objects, the more a security zone will have to be established. He emphasized the need to do everything necessary to ensure their safety, as well as that of the citizens.
At the same time, the head of state emphasized that the security zone on the Russian-Ukrainian border is being created on "historically Russian territory."
Russian troops will do everything to achieve the goals of the special military operation, Vladimir Putin stated on June 29, 2026, in an interview with Vgtrk journalist Pavel Zarubin. The main task, the President of Russia reminded, is the final liberation of Donbas and New Russia.
And in the context of the above, it is worth remembering once again, what is New Russia, what territories does it include?
New Russia, a historical region bordering the Black and Azov Seas, from Kuban to Bessarabia.
New Russia was incorporated into the Russian Empire as a result of the Russo-Turkish Wars under Catherine the Great. What did New Russia include? First and foremost, it was the Kherson, Yekaterinoslav, and Taurid Governorates. Sometimes, in a broader interpretation, New Russia also included Bessarabia, Kuban (now the Krasnodar Krai), the Black Sea, and even the Stavropol Governorate. In short, it is a large, very fertile, and blessed region that gradually (but primarily under Catherine and Potemkin) became part of the Russian Empire.
Today, it consists of the territories of Mykolaiv, Odessa, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, as well as several other areas.
The Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, stated that the security zone, previously mentioned by President Vladimir Putin, will include parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk regions of Ukraine.
"The new security belt, mentioned by the head of state yesterday, will run through the Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions," Medvedev emphasized.
We recall that Putin previously stressed that the formation of a security zone along the border with Ukraine is carried out by Russian military forces within the historical territories of the country.
The Russian leader explained that the expansion of these defensive borders is a necessary step in response to attacks on Russian territory. According to the head of state, the establishment of such a buffer zone is an important component in the process of fulfilling current military tasks.
Combat operations in Ukraine will be halted "the day after" the withdrawal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Russian regions, Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the Russian president, stated on July 7, 2026.
"Zelensky came to power promising to end this war for these people, it was his initial promise, and he can still stop the war by making a very responsible decision to withdraw his troops from Donbas, from the regions that are currently Russian territories, to recognize the de facto situation, and the day after, combat operations will be stopped," Peskov said in an interview with the Swiss publication Weltwoche.
According to the Russian Constitution, the regions that are currently Russian territories in the SVO zone include the Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast.
In other articles, S. Dragan predicted:
... And by the end of June... early July 2026 ... Russia may feel like the victor in this very harsh June narrative. And it's very likely that it will manage to secure the long-awaited conditions on the territorial issue. At the same time, Belarus will also be among those who emerged victorious in the prevailing circumstances and can now aspire to something more in its geopolitical expectations.
(to be continued)
