Negotiations between the US and Iran have been suspended. Tensions are escalating, with a possible surge around July 2026.
Forecast: "Outlines of the Global Future" (published on February 9, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
...The dangerous situation for Iran will escalate again in the weeks leading up to early July 2026...
There was some hope for normalization in the Gulf situation in May-June 2026. However, the situation changed in the last days of June 2026.
The dangerous situation for Iran by early July was already noted in the "Confirmation" of July 3, 2026. Despite President Trump's declaration of an end to the war in the Gulf, tensions are rising and becoming increasingly unpredictable.
In the early hours of July 8, 2026, US military forces launched a series of powerful strikes against Iran. The US Central Command claimed it was in response to Iranian actions against commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian military sources reported retaliatory strikes against US bases in Bahrain and Kuwait. Iranian authorities accused Washington of violating the memorandum on the cessation of military actions.
On the same day, US President Donald Trump announced the end of the ceasefire between the US and Iran. Tehran, in turn, suspended talks on a final settlement.
In the night of July 9, the US launched a new series of strikes against Iran. Tehran responded with attacks on American bases in the region. The Iranian CISR warned that if Washington continued its attacks, Tehran would expand the geography of its strikes.
Iran has begun a new series of strikes against targets in the region, according to Telegram channels specializing in Middle East issues.
In particular, the target of an attack in Jordan was the Muwaffak Salti airbase. This facility, located in the eastern part of the country, is considered one of Jordan's key military airbases, used not only by the local air force but also involved in joint operations with allies.
The United States are increasing the power of their strikes-on July 9th, they were even stronger than the day before. A record number of targets, 90, have been hit, primarily along the coast. One of the country's largest ports, Chabahar, was targeted in the bombing. According to the Pentagon, small vessels of the Iranian military fleet were based there.
The local airport was also attacked, the control tower was destroyed, and the runways were damaged. US President Donald Trump stated on social media that the airport was allegedly used for military purposes. At the same time, the United States struck purely civilian infrastructure-a railway bridge in the northern province of Golestan. This bridge connected Iran to countries in Central Asia, and through them, to China.
For the first time in several months, the US struck the city of Bushehr in the southwest. Located nearby is Iran's only nuclear power plant, which authorities stated was not damaged.
The Pentagon insists that all strikes are aimed at weakening the naval capabilities of the Islamic Republic and allegedly forcing it to allow hundreds of ships that have again congregated on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has once again stated that it will not yield and will respond with a strike for every strike.
"America still hasn't understood that intimidation and breaking promises no longer come without consequences. I'll be direct: if you strike, you will be struck. And the Strait of Hormuz will only open through an agreement with Iran, not after American threats," said Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Donald Trump commented on the situation mid-flight. Returning from Turkey in his new "Number One" plane, he had specifically moved to the aircraft before his army initiated a new phase of the operation against Iran. Whether a political gesture or mere coincidence, this $400 million aircraft was gifted to the American leader by the Gulf sheikhs.
News for those who made such a generous gift to the President of the United States turned out not to be very pleasant. At the NATO summit, Trump openly admitted - the memorandum signed in June is no longer in force. Serious doubts have arisen as to whether a new treaty will be concluded.
"They desperately want to make a deal, they've been calling recently, but I just don't know if they deserve it. I don't know if they'll adhere to it. It's some kind of madness. They've gone out of control, but they still want a deal," - said Trump.
Iran has already begun a retaliatory massive attack on US bases in the region. Anti-aircraft systems worked for several hours in the skies over Kuwait and Qatar, dozens of drones and missiles were shot down. In Bahrain, several explosions sounded near the headquarters of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet.
The White House is again betting on a military solution. Although all experts assure that the US is unlikely to achieve its goals so quickly by such means, the armed forces of Iran, despite Washington's repeated claims that they have been destroyed, still demonstrate their combat capabilities.
The US has struck several bridges in Iran to impede citizens from attending Ali Khamenei's funeral ceremony, reports the Financial Times. This has disrupted rail and transport connections to the sacred city of Mashhad. Iran has threatened to respond.
The death toll from the US strikes on Iran has risen to 17, with over 100 injured, as stated by Hossein Kermani, head of the press service of the Iranian Ministry of Health, on July 11, 2026.
Washington is hitting Iran for its "wrong choice," US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said. "Iran made a wrong choice. Now they will pay the price," he wrote.
The escalation of the situation in the Persian Gulf also clearly shows Israel's "hands" involved.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is willing to further escalate the conflict in the Middle East to maintain power, according to Alexander Perenzhiyev, a senior lecturer at the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at the Russian Economic University named after G. V. Plekhanov, in an exclusive comment to aif.ru.
According to the expert, the Israeli leader will deliberately provoke Iran and Lebanon, aiming for a new round of armed confrontation and the resumption of full-scale rocket attacks.
S. Dragan:
And this is all for the long term, at least spring 2027 looks critical for Iran.
