Tension Escalation Around Belarus (Part 3)

Forecast: "Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko - in the geopolitical game. Also Russia, USA, Ukraine, and Israel, and their leaders" (published on May 21, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

...But, despite threats and a rather provocative situation, Lukashenko will, in the third decade of May 2026, closer to May 26, 2026, make a kind of diplomatic moves or, to put it another way, play this situation not as straightforwardly as his opponents might expect. It needs to be said that he has already begun to review his position in the coordinate system around May 17, 2026, when the question of his authority in the geopolitical and domestic political space required new approaches to strengthen and prove to himself that his status is much more significant than it may seem to other players. And he still needs to command respect...

The intensification of the situation around Belarus in May of this year was noted in Confirmations from May 25 and 28, 2026, but the situation is becoming increasingly tense and requires the head of Belarus to make weighted decisions.

In late May, the foreign policy and diplomatic activities of A. Lukashenko became highly noticeable, aimed at preserving partnership relations, primarily with all the former Soviet Union republics.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, during a meeting with former Moldovan President Igor Dodon, unequivocally stated: "We often hear from various sources in recent times that Moldova is ready to become almost part of another state... As a person who is in love with your country, I know this well, I hear this with horror and take it in."

He expressed that he does not want to allow the loss of the country's sovereignty and independence, and called on Dodon and his supporters "to save Moldova for the Moldovans."

At the meeting, Lukashenko also asked Moldova "not to cut the umbilical cord" with its partners. He called for the resumption of the Belarusian-Moldovan cooperation commission, which was previously established between the countries.

Alexander Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, considers the development of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) as a key direction for preserving partnership relations with the former republics of the USSR. He participated in the Union's meeting on May 28-29 of this year.

The priority of the EEU should be its effectiveness, and in this regard, "we need to do a little" to avoid becoming "just sitting around," Lukashenko stated at an expanded session of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Astana.

"We need to review our work once again and move away from what is currently hindering us from working. ... However, our priority will be the effectiveness of the Eurasian Economic Union. ... In this direction, we need to do a lot. If we don't, we will become 'just sitting around,' as Mayakovsky said, and we will be engaged in mere talk," the Belarusian president remarked.

According to Lukashenko, Russia will need to take significant steps and possibly make certain concessions. "The commissions and the union's apparatus need to seriously consider activating their work-not for meetings and talks, but for practical results," Lukashenko said.

The most acute issue at the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council became Armenia's participation in the EAEC. Armenian authorities do not hide that they want to integrate the country into the EU, while leaders of the EAEC states respond that it will not be possible to be in both places at once. Armenia's economic growth is currently heavily dependent on EAEC countries. And no one is willing to take on the financing of the country's entry into the European Union.

The Belarusian leader said that in his country, the Armenians "cooperated as if with the closest people, helped in every way," but they still wanted the West.

"I constantly told the Armenian leadership about this. I am an ancient person in politics. I have seen a lot. You cannot trust the West," Alexander Lukashenko said.

He called on Yerevan not to lose what has been achieved through cooperation with the EAEC.

«You have this sparrow in your hands. Don't chase the crane just yet, said the Belarusian president. Don't lose this friendship, this brotherhood. It's a unified market in the economy, mutual aid. Don't lose it, because you, having lost it, may not be able to acquire anything there.» And he added that neither Armenia nor Ukraine is expected (by the EU) anywhere.

It is noted that Pashinyan, ahead of the elections, is trying to brazenly deceive voters, promising them well-being from orientation towards the EU. Well-being will only be for Pashinyan, not for the majority of the Armenian population.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko called the statements by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan about organizing a new gas transit through Armenian territory as part of the «Trump Route» a lie.

Lukashenko expressed doubt that this would happen, stating that the people are unaware of where the pipes will be laid, who will supply the gas, and what funds will be involved. He noted that Russia sells gas to Armenia for 150-160 dollars per thousand cubic meters, while in the European Union it costs 550-650 dollars.

"What benefit is there? If we talk about money," he added.

According to the Belarusian leader, certain circles benefit from the current situation in Armenia. The Europeans promised "a whole bundle," but no concrete proposals have been heard - only criticisms of Belarus and Russia.

However, an undoubtedly important direction of foreign policy for A. Lukashenko at the end of May remained preventing the escalation of Zelensky's provocative actions to a "hot war" state.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko revealed details of his recent phone call with Emmanuel Macron, after which various versions emerged, including that the French leader called to warn against entering a war.

"No, that's not what it was about. But for someone to warn me... Emmanuel Macron knows me well, he shouldn't warn me. I think a thousand times before doing anything. And I think, what's the outcome, unlike them... It was a friendly, good, albeit long (an hour and forty minutes) conversation. We remembered our previous conversations and so on. But for someone to force or pressure me - no," Lukashenko said.

The Belarusian leader noted that Macron stated, "Here's the information, you want to enter a war."

"I say, 'Lord be with you' (even interrupting him), 'I don't plan to enter anywhere, why would I enter?'" Lukashenko added.

In response, the French president mentioned the recent joint Belarusian-Russian nuclear forces exercise.

"Here, you've conducted a nuclear exercise with Vladimir Vladimirovich, you're almost provoking a nuclear war. Do you want to use nuclear weapons?" - Macron relayed the words to Lukashenko.

In response, the head of the Belarusian state said, "Only in one case - if there is an aggression against Belarus."

"And, what did we end up with, the main thing: Ukraine and its consequences, if we, the Russians, attack Ukraine from the north. Don't you understand, he says, that we will have to respond? I say, 'You should not respond, but strive for peace.' 'We strive,' he replies. I say, 'If you strived for peace, you would, being at the 'clash' in Yerevan (in May of this year at the European Political Community summit. - EADaily)... Well, maybe Moscow is not your cup of tea - you would come to Minsk, and we would meet with Vladimir Vladimirovich (Russian President Vladimir Putin. - EADaily) in Minsk.' Well, like this, jokingly. He says, 'I don't exclude this meeting.' I say, 'You should call Putin. Come, sit down, talk like men.'" - Lukashenko reported.

According to the Belarusian leader, in response to a corresponding proposal by Emmanuel Macron, he said that further consultation within the European Union was needed. The President of Belarus, in the conversation, emphasized that the current French President should be the driving force of the relevant process.

"I say, wait, you are an elder, you have been in power for so many years! And who is there? Merz (German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. - EADaily) is a young politician. Starmer (UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. - EADaily) is also very young."

Who will be talking? All the young ones. In Italy, there is a female Prime Minister. Do you want to put these responsibilities on a woman? You are the elder, start moving. You are the main actor and the driving force in Europe today. He has visited Armenia, so now he should come to talk in Moscow or Minsk. And in the conversation, decide on this issue... This is what the topic revolved around," - noted Lukashenko.

According to the Belarusian President, there were "a sea" of accompanying issues. Including "negotiations between the US and us, they briefly touched on this issue." Lukashenko also said that security in Europe was also discussed.

«We have come to a common understanding that all issues of European security and Europe should be resolved within Europe. It's not Donald Trump who should be telling us what to do and pushing us towards peace, or whatever. We should be the ones resolving these issues. Because we live here directly. By the way, Donald Trump has said this multiple times already: that the war in Ukraine is a European issue. He's right. And we should move in this direction and decide, not wait for someone to take us by the hand, like little kittens, and sit us at a table and force us to solve these problems,」 he stated.

Additionally, Alexander Lukashenko told journalists about a request from his French counterpart.

"I say, 'Listen, we're talking, practically an open line. What can we talk about? You didn't come to Moscow after Yerevan, you didn't come to Minsk. What's there to talk about?' He says to me, 'Mr. President, can you meet with my trusted person and talk to them, and have them come and explain all this to me?' I say, if you're afraid to come to Minsk, send your trusted person... Literally by the day - Monday, Tuesday (I don't remember) - this person will be here. I don't want to mention their surname. They provided the coordinates. We'll have a serious talk with them. This is their person, absolutely trusted, they're in the know. And I'll detail all the problems that exist' - the Belarusian leader reported.

To conclude, Alexander Lukashenko said that the French president asked: 'What can I do, and what can the European Union do to normalize relations with Belarus?'

"I say, 'Listen, this is more than known to everyone.' - 'Well, it's potassium fertilizers there.' He mentioned something else. I say, 'May God be with you! Potassium prices have skyrocketed today - mineral fertilizers. All volumes are contracted, and if we had to supply anyone, we wouldn't have a single ton of mineral fertilizers today - not just potassium ones. Phosphorus, nitrogen - they're all already under contracts and at good prices... So for us, potassium... Well, it's with the help of our 'murmurs - whispers' - these fugitives. They tell them, 'Here's potassium, and that's all!' - said Lukashenko."

According to him, "Markets are already reconfigured, reoriented."

"Of course, it would be nice if, as before, we could load this potassium next to us in Lithuania. That would be a larger margin. Well, it doesn't work, they don't want to meet us halfway - we load it in Russia. So, no problem," - Alexander Lukashenko concluded.

Dragan predicts in the near future:

But the answer or serious decisions (to Zelensky's provocation), very tough decisions, extremely dangerous, if not more, can be expected in June 2026. Perhaps after mid-June, around June 24, 2026. Of course, these dates cannot yet be accurate, as I am still getting to work with maps of Belarus and A. Lukashenko. But a lot is already becoming quite indicative and leads to Belarus and its leader entering a political game with a military context...

And once again, the third decade of June 2026 is sounding more and more tense and even dangerous for our ally.

(continuation of the topic to follow)