The 20s of October 2026 — D. Trump's “victories”

Forecast: “Geopolitical events of October 2026 and their further development. A prospective scenario for many key geopolitical players” (published October 4, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

…by October 20, 2026, D. Trump… may celebrate his victory.

All of D. Trump's actions in October 2026 are aimed at achieving the main goal: a successful, or at least acceptable for the U.S. president himself, outcome in the midterm elections in early November 2026.

The results of these elections will be examined in mid-November 2026, but a preliminary assessment of the U.S. president's performance and of how much he can celebrate his current successes at the end of October 2026 can already be made now.

Diesel fuel prices have the most important influence on election results, as they shape the views of the American electorate.

On October 9, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he had reached an agreement with Russia on diesel fuel supplies. Following this, the United States lifted some sanctions so that the agreement could be implemented.

The diesel fuel supply deal with Russia is needed not by the United States, but by the entire global market. U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters this, RIA Novosti writes. According to the politician, Russia committed to immediately supplying more than 300,000 tonnes of fuel to the U.S. and global markets. Another 500,000 tonnes are to arrive in November, followed immediately by 1 million tonnes. Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia's readiness to supply oil and petroleum products to the United States and the global market.

Trump noted that the global market is suffering from high fuel prices. He said that the diesel deal with Russia had already yielded results: it helped lower prices worldwide.

On October 14, 2026, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced the resumption of direct supplies of domestic diesel fuel to the U.S. and global markets while speaking on the sidelines of the international forum “Russian Energy Week” in Moscow.

According to the deputy prime minister, the conclusion of such contracts will inevitably affect global market conditions.

“As supply and demand are balanced around the world, petroleum product prices, including in Europe, will adjust,” the minister explained.

D. Trump, as a true businessman, is seeking economic benefits for his country from cooperation with Russia.

On October 16, 2026, Donald Trump ordered that a number of sanctions and tariffs against Russia provided for by the law named after Senator Lindsey Graham not be applied. He canceled the introduction of additional tariffs of 500% on Russian goods and 100% on goods from countries that are the largest purchasers of Russian oil and gas. RDIF head Kirill Dmitriev called the decision historic, while Trump was accused in the U.S. Congress of betraying Ukraine.

As of October 20, 2026, Moscow is discussing potential projects with the American side in energy, aviation, rare-earth metals, artificial intelligence, and other technologies. Dmitriev himself had previously stated that the Donald Trump administration was increasingly recognizing the need for cooperation with Russia.

On October 21, 2026, Putin and Witkoff were already discussing major joint economic projects in St. Petersburg. Later, Trump stated that potential agreements between American oil and gas companies and Russia should not depend on the end of the Ukrainian conflict.

According to him, a joint U.S.-Russia project in Alaska, as well as LUKOIL deals, “will be concluded at some point.” The U.S. oil industry should not be held hostage by the Ukrainian conflict, Trump believes.

By the third decade of October 2026, the dollar had strengthened against other currencies. Analysts identified several reasons at once.

• Geopolitical background. The key signal was U.S. President Donald Trump's decision not to impose new sanctions temporarily. This reduced tensions, and investors began buying more actively the currencies of countries that had previously been under sanctions pressure. In this context, the strengthening of the dollar against the ruble became one indicator of an overall improvement in sentiment.
• Energy deals. At the same time, the market was influenced by expectations that supplies of Russian diesel fuel to the United States might begin. For Russia, this meant an inflow of foreign currency into the budget, which also contributed to the overall positive backdrop for the ruble.

One of D. Trump's cornerstone promises ahead of the elections was to end the Ukrainian conflict. So far, this has not worked out. But D. Trump is beginning to pressure Zelensky “starting small” — with demands to stop strikes on Russian oil refineries.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, for his part, expressed outrage over the Russia-U.S. diesel deal. Axios reported that during a 15-minute interview he spoke with irritation and frustration and even expressed a feeling that he had been betrayed. Zelensky said that easing sanctions against Russia without a clear and lasting de-escalation agreement with it is “an obvious weakness.”

On October 14, 2026, Zelensky stated that the United States had linked the transfer of intelligence data to ending strikes on Russian oil refineries, and Ukrainian generals had received a warning. The White House did not confirm the threat, while Russia opposes the transfer of intelligence data to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The administration of U.S. President Donald Trump warned that it might stop sharing intelligence with Ukraine if Ukrainian forces did not halt strikes on oil refineries in Russian territory.

According to Zelensky, he personally did not receive such a warning—it was conveyed to the Ukrainian military. “They told my generals, not me. <…> My generals said that they received this information at the military level,” the Ukrainian president stated.

FT reported that Europe was alarmed by Zelensky's sarcastic remarks directed at Russia and the United States.

During a briefing, President Donald Trump responded to remarks by his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky that the U.S. leader was on the wrong side of history.

“Zelensky does not know what he is talking about,” the American politician replied.

Earlier, Trump once again publicly criticized the Ukrainian leader for his unwillingness to end the conflict with Russia. He cited funding from European countries as one of the reasons. He also explained the decision to ease anti-Russian sanctions by the desire to keep Moscow at the negotiating table.

Zelensky, meanwhile, accused the American politician of trying to force the republic into capitulation and of weakening support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In an interview with NBC News, the Ukrainian president said that Trump supports President Vladimir Putin and called it a “historic mistake.” At the same time, he acknowledged that if the United States officially takes Russia's side, Ukraine “will not be able to withstand it.”

On October 15, 2026, Volodymyr Zelensky stated that Russia had not stopped strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and on the same day Ukrainian drones attacked the Ryazan oil refinery. In response, Donald Trump called the resumption of strikes “a disgrace” and again accused Zelensky of being unwilling to negotiate.

Formally, Kyiv did not announce a new moratorium on strikes against Russian oil refineries. On October 18, 2026, the St. Petersburg Oil Terminal and the Ruchi oil depot came under attack.

But after that, in the 20s of October 2026, pressure on the Kyiv regime intensified, with Washington demanding an end to strikes on Russian oil refineries.

It should be noted that as of October 29, 2026, the Ukrainian Armed Forces had not carried out strikes on Russian oil refineries for more than ten days, which to some extent can be considered a victory for D. Trump.

Another political victory for D. Trump can be considered his pressure on his NATO allies. For many decades, the United States assumed all military and economic costs of maintaining the NATO bloc. But today D. Trump demonstratively prioritizes the interests of his own country above all else.

On October 16, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington was suspending the sale of ammunition to allies. The White House chief explained his decision by the need to replenish American arsenals. At the same time, he criticized former President Joe Biden for transferring missiles to Ukraine free of charge. According to him, Kyiv sold these weapons “on the open market.”

Trump also has not forgotten that European NATO allies refused to help the United States in the war with Iran in spring 2026.

In his characteristic manner, D. Trump confidently assures that he will soon defeat Iran.

On October 28, 2026, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance sent a message to the Iranian leadership proposing the resumption of negotiations. It is reported that Washington thus wants to give diplomacy one final chance before preventing an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Recently, the United States notified allies in the region that, after the congressional midterm elections taking place next week, the military campaign against the Islamic Republic may resume. Israel, where parliamentary elections have just taken place, may join it.

In the context of suspending arms deliveries to Ukraine, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he is fully informed about the circumstances of the beginning of the Ukrainian conflict and promised to make this information public when the appropriate time comes.

Answering reporters' question outside the White House about the true culprits behind the start of military action in Ukraine, the American leader stressed that he possesses all the information on the matter.

Trump has repeatedly emphasized that the conflict in Ukraine would never have begun had he won the 2020 election.

He also placed responsibility for the escalation on the previous administrations of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, while noting that Volodymyr Zelensky is not seeking a genuine diplomatic settlement.

However ironic the comments of D. Trump's opponents may be, he himself believes that he is steadily moving toward concluding a deal on the Ukrainian conflict.

A deal to settle the conflict between Moscow and Kyiv is closer than ever, the U.S. president stated on October 22, 2026: “Right now, we are negotiating with Russia over Ukraine. For the first time in a long time, we may have come close to an agreement.” In such a situation, Trump added, sanctions are not imposed.

A particular but quite illustrative example of the gradual movement toward peace can be considered the truce concluded in Oleshky, Kherson Region, which took place with the personal involvement of U.S. First Lady Melania Trump.

U.S. First Lady Melania Trump was able to help facilitate agreements on a ceasefire in Oleshky, Kherson Region, thanks to her experience in humanitarian work. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov told this to a correspondent of the Vesti news service.

“She contributed to reuniting children with their families—children in Ukraine as well as children in Russia,” the Kremlin representative noted.

And no matter what anyone says, this too is a victory for D. Trump.

D. Trump also does not overlook the implementation of his other plans. One of them is developing Greenland Island in the interests of the United States.

On October 14, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump announced preparations to begin large-scale geological exploration of mineral deposits in Greenland.

“Large-scale exploration for oil, gas, and minerals is set to begin in our new and beautiful Greenland!” he wrote on the Truth Social platform.

According to the U.S. president, some experts believe that the island's reserves of easily accessible oil significantly exceed comparable figures for most other territories in the world. However, the American leader did not provide specific estimates of the deposits' volume.

Trump also stressed Greenland's strategic importance for ensuring the security of the United States and Europe. In his view, the island's geographical location provides exceptional opportunities for both defensive and offensive operations.

“Any future attack on the United States will have to pass through Greenland, where our defenses will regularly shoot down drones, missiles, or any other forms of weapons that have not even been invented yet,” he stated.

The American president added that Greenland's location would allow the U.S. armed forces additional time to respond to potential threats and ensure effective detection of possible attacks.

But not everything is so cloudless for the U.S. president. As S. Dragan forecasts: “Yes, shortly before this date, Trump will begin to have troubles, around November 8, 2026…”

To be continued…