The negotiation process appears important

Forecast: “Geopolitical events of October 2026 and their further development. A promising scenario trajectory for many major geopolitical players” (published October 4, 2026, link).

S. Dragan:

It may generally be about a global negotiation process in the third decade of October 2026. … But the negotiation process closer to the very end of October appears very important. Yes, it looks quite promising…

At the beginning of this Confirmation, it should be recalled that after Zelensky, at the instigation and demand of London, derailed the Istanbul agreements in the spring of 2022, the negotiation process was effectively completely halted for three years.

Only in 2025–2026 did a series of contacts take place concerning the Ukrainian settlement. In February 2025, a telephone conversation was held between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump. As a result, they agreed to begin negotiations on ending hostilities.

Later, meetings of delegations took place: on February 18 in Riyadh and on February 27 in Istanbul. In August of the same year, a Russia-U.S. summit was held in Anchorage. The parties discussed the Ukrainian issue, but the full list of agreements was not publicly disclosed.

In 2026, the emphasis shifted to a trilateral format—Russia, the United States, and Ukraine. A series of rounds took place:

• The first—in Abu Dhabi on January 23–24. They discussed settlement parameters, the territorial issue, and the situation surrounding the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
• The second—in Abu Dhabi on February 4–5. They continued seeking solutions, but the key obstacle remained the differences: Russia’s demands regarding territories in eastern Ukraine and Kyiv’s principled position on sovereignty and borders.
• The third round—in Geneva on February 17–18. At this stage, the Russian delegation was headed by Vladimir Medinsky.

And once again, there was a pause in the negotiation process.

Only in the third decade of October, in Oslo, Witkoff spoke with Zelensky, as well as the leaders of Finland and Norway, outlining elements of a peace proposal; he then flew to St. Petersburg and met with Putin.

On October 21, Putin and Witkoff were already discussing major joint economic projects in St. Petersburg.

Following the meetings in Oslo and St. Petersburg, the dates for a new round of the trilateral meeting were preliminarily determined, and it is expected to become extremely important.

During the same period, in one of his interviews, D. Trump hinted at progress in the conflict in Ukraine. Later, Trump stated that potential agreements between American oil and gas companies and Russia should not depend on the end of the Ukrainian conflict.

A little earlier, after October 9, 2026, relations between D. Trump and the head of the Kyiv regime sharply deteriorated. Moreover, D. Trump accused Zelensky of having long been able to make peace but not wanting to do so. The U.S. president recognizes the illegitimacy of the head of the Kyiv regime and recommended that Ukrainians choose a new leader.

Assessing the potential capabilities of the parties, political analysts favor Russia’s advantages, viewing its negotiating position as stronger.

Ukraine will have to make concessions, retired Bundeswehr General Roland Kater said in an interview with Welt. In his opinion, Russia is in a more advantageous position, while a meeting of Putin, Xi, and Trump at APEC in mid-November could leave Kyiv entirely out of the negotiations.

There are three areas in which Ukraine cannot rely on the EU and is completely dependent on the Americans: strategic communications, including the Starlink and Starshield systems; strategic intelligence, above all obtaining intelligence about the situation deep inside enemy territory and for operations deep inside that territory. This, of course, is also of enormous importance in combating drones. And finally, intelligence information provided by the special services.

If any of this stops working, it immediately affects the course of hostilities from the Ukrainian perspective. Thus, Trump has a tool he can manipulate, and he does so.

Even his former close associates say that D. Trump’s words are true and that Zelensky is merely pretending to be a peacemaker and does not want peace.

Vladimir Zelensky needs to go to Moscow for peace negotiations, said his former press secretary Yulia Mendel.

“He needs to fly to Moscow and agree to acceptable compromises,” she said in an interview with Fox News.

According to Mendel, Zelensky needs to stop playing his maximalist games and portraying himself as a noble actor.

Presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated as early as September 24, 2026, that Russia was still ready to receive Zelensky in Moscow. He added that security guarantees would be ensured, while the head of the Kyiv regime knows perfectly well what decisions need to be made.

All sides are approaching this round with certain conditions and “red lines” that they are demonstrating to their opponents.

In response to U.S. attacks against him, Zelensky, having received instructions in London from his handlers in mid-October 2026, sharply intensified his media activity and is trying to show everyone that it is he who is needed for the negotiation process.

Zelensky changed his mind and expressed alleged readiness to conduct a substantive dialogue with the Russian leadership on the territorial issue at the highest level.

“If it is a territorial issue—then at the level of leaders. Other issues—at the level of technical groups,” the Ukrainian leader said in an interview with the TSN television channel.

Whereas earlier, Zelensky noted that he agreed to reach an agreement with Moscow providing for the freezing of the conflict along the current line of contact while retaining under Ukraine’s control at least seventy-five percent of the country’s territory.

Ukraine’s security guarantees “cannot be dictated” by Russia, President Vladimir Zelensky wrote on his Telegram channel following his interview with the TSN television channel.

The politician stated that restrictions on the republic’s army and its neutrality are not under discussion.

According to him, Kyiv is ready to discuss all issues except the territorial one in November at the level of technical groups. In one of his subsequent posts, the Ukrainian leader clarified that this could involve an energy truce, a halt to strikes on shipping, grain exports, and the exchange of prisoners of war.

In response to Zelensky’s statements on territories, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out that the returned liberated regions are lands of historical Russia, not Ukraine. The Russian side has repeatedly stressed that it supports exclusively a long-term and durable settlement without any temporary truces.

At present, another party—the European Union—has emerged among the participants in the negotiation process.

Earlier, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Europe should be part of the dialogue on Ukraine, since it is precisely Europe that retains the desire to continue hostilities. At the same time, as Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reported, the EU is only talking about appointing a representative to participate in the negotiations but is doing nothing to accomplish this.

At the same time, some European leaders have recently shown concern about being left outside the “negotiation game.”

On October 27, 2026, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre stated that during a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin held on Tuesday, he and Finnish President Alexander Stubb stressed the importance of de-escalation.

The conversation took place at the initiative of the Finnish and Norwegian sides.

Europe merely wants to squeeze into the negotiation process on the Ukrainian settlement and offers nothing new. This was stated by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, commenting on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s telephone conversation with the leaders of Norway and Finland.

In his conversation with Stubb and Støre, V. Putin assessed the current situation in the conflict zone in Ukraine, recalling its root causes, and also noted that “the achievement of a just long-term peace is possible only with full and unconditional consideration of the legitimate interests of the Russian Federation.” At the same time, the head of state drew attention to the policies of the EU and NATO countries that lead to the prolongation of hostilities.

A long-term peace treaty cannot fail to include guarantees for Russia at the regional and global levels.

At the same time, there are certain forces that want to escalate the situation and create conditions unacceptable for negotiations. To that end, European media are trying to invent for themselves what the Kremlin’s terms might be, contrary to the views of NATO and EU leadership.

On October 26, 2026, the British newspaper The Telegraph, citing some source unknown to anyone, reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin would likely demand that NATO’s military presence in Europe be returned to its 1997 level—before the alliance’s eastward expansion.

According to the publication, this could imply the withdrawal of the bloc’s troops from Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as from Finland, which joined NATO in 2023. All five countries share a border with Russia.

But, as experts acknowledge, no one can show a speech by V. Putin making such demands.

The next meeting of Russia, the United States, and Ukraine will take place in Abu Dhabi in the first half of November, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reported.

Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia will not publicly discuss the details of negotiations on the Ukrainian settlement, as this would harm the potential peace process.

The Kremlin representative noted that resolving the conflict in Ukraine will require a very serious discussion consisting of an enormous number of details.

“We would not like to discuss these details publicly, because we believe that this would harm the potential future peace process,” Peskov said, commenting on Vladimir Zelensky’s statement regarding the territorial issue.

It should be noted that, despite all the above-mentioned problems, the future “negotiation process looks quite promising…”, since this month saw a temporary lifting by the United States of sanctions on diesel fuel, the organization of a humanitarian truce and ceasefire in the Kherson region, the resumption of prisoner exchanges, and the continued return of the bodies of fallen servicemen.

In addition, on October 27, 2026, U.S. President Donald Trump told journalists at Joint Base Andrews outside Washington that he expects to hold a meeting in the near future with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and the head of the Kyiv leadership, Vladimir Zelensky.

A temporary ceasefire in the area of Alyoshki in the Kherson region could become an example for similar humanitarian arrangements in other areas. Russian presidential press secretary Dmitry Peskov allowed for this possibility, highly praising the participation of American mediators in organizing the upcoming operation.

At the same time, Peskov expressed hope that the Ukrainian side would fulfill all the agreements reached. He particularly highlighted the role of U.S. negotiators and Melania Trump, whose direct participation made it possible to agree on the humanitarian pause.

The ceasefire regime in the Alyoshki area came into force on October 27, 2026, at 4:00 a.m. Moscow time. The Russian and Ukrainian sides confirmed their readiness to observe the agreements necessary for delivering humanitarian aid and evacuating civilians.

The ceasefire is also planned to be extended to humanitarian routes. Mine clearance of certain sections is planned to ensure the safe movement of people. The operation is intended to be carried out in several stages, and residents will be able to choose their evacuation direction independently.

Earlier, Life.ru reported on a detailed truce plan for Alyoshki prepared by the American side. Melania Trump’s senior adviser Mark Beckman said that the procedure for the humanitarian operation had been scheduled almost minute by minute. According to him, the U.S. first lady participated in organizing the negotiations and coordinating contacts between the parties.

On October 22, 2026, an exchange of the bodies of fallen military personnel between Russia and Ukraine took place at the Novaya Guta Belarusian border checkpoint under the “252 for 25” formula. A humanitarian family reunification mission was also held there: 11 people traveled from Russia to Ukraine to join their relatives, while another three are returning from Ukraine to their loved ones.

On October 23, 2026, Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners of war under the formula of 270 for 270. According to the Russian Defense Ministry, Russian servicemen are in Belarus, where they are receiving medical and psychological assistance. The United Arab Emirates acted as mediator in their return. What is known about the exchange and other humanitarian contacts between Moscow and Kyiv—in the Gazeta.Ru article.

S. Dragan, considering the further prospects of the negotiation process, notes: “…but this (the meeting in November) will not be the final stage of the agreements. The next phase of negotiations and, one might say, the final one, will happen closer to March 12, 2027…”

To be continued…