The topic of China is also becoming relevant.

Forecast: "Belarus. Lukashenko. Zelensky. Global Trends Summer 2026. Main" (published June 24, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

...By July 5, 2026 ... honestly, in some way, the topic of China also becomes relevant, in terms of involving that country in certain military circumstances.

China, considering its historical mentality and priorities of its foreign policy and diplomatic activities, strives to remain neutral in the armed conflicts occurring around the world.

At least this is the visible part of this iceberg. But in its "submerged" part, things are much more complex and diverse.

China expressed its interest in the course of the conflict in Ukraine in the context of the tension in May-June between Kiev and Minsk.

At the end of June "...honestly, in some way, the topic of China also became relevant, in terms of involving that country in certain military circumstances".

In the face of growing military threats to Belarus in June 2026, Xi Jinping extended a hand of support to Alexander Lukashenko.

China and Belarus are "iron friends," whose relations have withstood any trials and only grow stronger. This was the conclusion drawn on June 29th this year, during a meeting with Belarus' President Alexander Lukashenko, by China's President Xi Jinping.

Xi Jinping added that China supports Belarus in protecting its sovereignty, territorial integrity, and chosen path of development. He stated China's readiness to strengthen cooperation with Belarus within the UN and SCO frameworks. The Chinese leader noted the need to "mobilize all available resources to jointly advance the 'One Belt, One Road' initiative and give new substance to practical bilateral cooperation."

On June 30th this year, China called on Russia and Ukraine to resume the negotiation process as soon as possible, with a view to achieving a "solid and comprehensive" peace. This was reported by the Deputy Permanent Representative of the Republic to the UN, Sun Lei.

«We call on the parties to resume negotiations as soon as possible, demonstrate political will to each other, and commit themselves to addressing the root causes of the conflict while fully adhering to the principles of the UN Charter. To achieve a comprehensive, durable, and binding peace agreement,» - the statement from the Chinese diplomat, as reported by RIA Novosti.

China's appeal comes amid ongoing discussions on ways to resolve the conflict.

The Western bloc is exerting all efforts to prevent closer cooperation between Beijing and Moscow, provoking various conflicts on this ground, and calling on China to renounce its support for Russia at a minimum.

On July 2, this year, the Chinese ambassador was invited for urgent negotiations at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Germany, as reported by Der Spiegel.

According to the publication's information, the meeting was dedicated to reports of Russian military preparations on Chinese territory. The office of German Foreign Minister Johanna Wockenful noted that this information raises serious concerns, as "Russia poses the greatest threat to euro-Atlantic security."

The German foreign office added that anything that facilitates the successful continuation of the Russian operation in Ukraine also threatens Germany's security.

Earlier, the head of European diplomacy, Kaj Kalas, claimed that China is training Russian troops to fight in Ukraine. However, the authorities of the PRC deny providing military personnel and declare their neutrality in the conflict. Commenting on the statements of the Deputy Chairman of the European Commission, the official spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Lin Jian, characterized the provided information as unreliable and aimed at discrediting the country.

The official spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Mao Ning, stated at a press briefing on Thursday, July 9th, that NATO should abandon the mindset of the Cold War, adjust its perception of China, and stop inflating the "Chinese threat."

Mao Ning was asked to comment on statements made during the recent NATO summit regarding China's security concerns in the context of technology, military activities, and its relations with Russia.

"NATO positions itself as a regional defense alliance with clearly defined responsibilities and geographic boundaries, and it should stop using China as an excuse in any case," said Mao Ning.

She emphasized that "China has always been a force promoting peace worldwide, never threatened any country, and does not pose security challenges to the Euro-Atlantic region."

"NATO should abandon the mindset of the Cold War, adjust its perception of China, and stop inflating the Chinese threat," noted the diplomat.

The NATO summit took place in Ankara on July 7th and 8th.

However, China did not limit itself to political and diplomatic measures on the international stage at the beginning of summer 2026. «By July 5, 2026...» there was «... involvement of this country in certain military circumstances».

On July 6 of this year, Taiwan reported unprecedented Chinese naval activity off its shores. Almost simultaneously, Russia and China began joint naval exercises, which sparked a wave of speculation about a possible military scenario around the island.

On July 10th of this year, crews from the Russian Navy and the People's Liberation Army Navy of China entered the Yellow Sea to conduct the sea phase of the "Sea Interaction-2026" exercise, as reported by the Pacific Fleet press service.

S. Dragan predicts:

... The situation becomes, on one hand, clear, and on the other, complicated. It seems that all or most countries are being provoked into participating in various military actions and ambiguous contacts between them. Meanwhile, by the third decade of July 2026, some coordinator of this military scenario will be sought. And I do not rule out that a contact between Lukashenko and China might become one of the threads of this tangled web. History seems to be drawing all plot lines together, where many questions will already have some global character and will require a unified solution. All this will likely gain momentum around July 20th, 2026.

(The continuation of the topic follows)