Venezuela. Strict economic conditions. April 2026
Forecast: "Venezuela. Maduro. Truth and Lie. Forecast of Event Development" (published on January 7, 2026, link).
S. Dragan:
However, by the end of April 2026, Venezuela may face severe trials. This looks quite harsh and suggests a blockade or very tough economic conditions, possibly depriving it of the ability to use its energy resources.
As of April 28, 2026, in Venezuela, as shown by the AtlasIntel survey conducted for Bloomberg, only 31% of respondents approve of the government's actions. Last month, that number was 35%. The number of those dissatisfied with Rodríguez also increased: from 45 to 47%.
The most worrying issue for Venezuelans is the unfavorable economic situation. 77% of those surveyed characterized it negatively, and 76% also noted problems in the labor market. Thousands of people marched through Caracas last week demanding higher wages.
On April 28th, Sama Rodriguez spoke, stating she expects to see visible changes this year: "Decisions aren't made in a day, but I'm confident we'll see results this year." Indeed, the interim president noted the presence of forces within the country with "unhealthy intentions to destabilize the situation."
Foreign investors interested in Venezuela's energy resources demand assurances for their financial investments, which are insufficient to attract the desired level of investment.
The issues are not limited to Venezuela's mining infrastructure, but also its labor resources. A significant portion of skilled workers have emigrated, and thus, the restoration of the oil market will require their return.
Under these conditions, current Venezuela serves as a peculiar model of how new authorities in any country, where Americans have replaced leadership, will build relationships. It is clear, for example, that Trump will aim to reduce Chinese economic influence. Any cooperation by foreign companies with Caracas requires confirmation from the US. This significantly limits the number and potential investors. The same Chinese companies interested in Venezuelan oil and possessing sufficient resources and technologies for development will not be allowed into the Latin American market - at least as long as Trump remains US president, who proclaimed at the very beginning of his presidency a "triumphal return" to Latin America.
The approach of Caracas to Washington after the arrest of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro did not lead to a sudden improvement in relations with the US.
Venezuela's experience has been instructive for other countries in the region, he believes. According to political analysts, Venezuela's new authorities were hoping for a relaxation of sanctions and an influx of American investments, but these expectations have not been met so far.
Experts note that oil production in Venezuela has indeed slightly increased, but it's not a radical change: the US, after Maduro's departure, started purchasing Venezuelan heavy oil, but encountered problems with its refining and storage.
Some volumes previously sent to China are now being redirected to the United States, although Washington's attempt to use Venezuelan oil on the Chinese front did not yield results.
Dragan:
At the beginning of May 2026, political activism regarding the country's independence (Venezuela) will intensify. ... Power in the country will change radically once again. And it must be said that during this time (approximately May 27-30, 2026) Trump will do everything to demonstrate his strength and achievements. Unfortunately, there will be very dirty games and actions, which could also be critical for Trump himself.
