An obvious signal of the European Union's disintegration
Forecast: “What are the prospects for the European Union? Clarification regarding certain countries and leaders” (published August 6, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
…And this is a signal that closer to August 12, 2026, there may be an obvious signal of the European Union’s breakup…
In mid-August, leading political scientists noted a whole range of problems in whose resolution the European Union’s role as a single organization is vanishingly small.
“No matter how you look at it, this is a difficult and worrying time for Europe,” Richard Haass acknowledged in August this year, having chaired the Council on Foreign Relations for two decades. He believes that Europe has partly become a victim of circumstances, but is also partly to blame for its inability to influence its own fate.
“The point is that they are falling short not only financially, but also in organizing their own security,” he said. “The issue is not what the United States and China have done to Europe, but what it has done to itself.”
On August 6 this year, the New York Times wrote: “This summer has already been harsh for Europe: two conflicts, record heat, runaway inflation, and deep anxiety over food, energy, and security. A string of crises calls for joint action, but Europe’s problems are gradually slipping out of its control.”
Europeans have still been unable to influence the course of the American-Israeli war with Iran, although its consequences are being acutely felt across the continent, while the Old World’s loud protest against Trump’s decision to unleash war enraged the American leader and damaged transatlantic relations. The war in Iran—a conflict that most of the Old World did not want—has disrupted ordinary life throughout the region and driven up prices for gasoline, food, and travel. Leaders of the European continent promised to help restore oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as hostilities cease. However, it appears that they are destined to learn about the next stage of the war from Trump’s social-media feed. Gasoline and diesel prices have nearly reached a record €3 per liter.
Europe has been unable to stop the conflict in Ukraine after more than four years of bloodshed. Moreover, by the end of summer the conflict had entered a stage of sharp escalation.
Europe’s “achievements” in reducing atmospheric emissions and combating climate change pale against the inaction of the United States and China.
The future of artificial intelligence lies in the hands of other countries unrelated to Europe.
Right-wing populism has intensified, fueled by migration, inequality, and disinformation.
The average temperature in Europe is rising faster than on other continents. Britons experienced the driest July in nearly two centuries. Because of fires in France and Spain, more than 300,000 people were forced to leave their homes. In Greece, firefighters died battling the elements, which have still not been fully brought under control.
But “closer to August 12, 2026, an obvious signal of the European Union’s breakup” was the migration crisis in Spain.
Since the beginning of August this year, the Spanish exclave of Ceuta, located on the northern coast of Africa, has found itself at the center of the largest migration crisis since 2021. Thousands of people from Morocco and other countries broke through the land border, swam around coastal barriers, and came ashore on the city’s beaches.
The mass influx of tens of thousands of refugees into Ceuta, a tiny Spanish enclave on the North African coast, has increased the risk of a new crisis that will become another test of European unity on one of the most painful political issues.
The incident exposed simmering tensions within the EU: far-right parties, including Alternative for Germany and France’s National Rally, are stoking anti-migrant sentiment. Nearly two dozen European Union countries criticized Spain within hours of the influx of migrants into Ceuta, with some even calling for Madrid to be excluded from the free-movement area.
Some analysts regarded the continent’s glaring lack of solidarity with Spain in the face of an external migration threat as evidence of a lack of authority on the world stage. But the main thing is that everyone disowned Madrid.
Allies betrayed Spain after seeing its North African enclave besieged by 50,000 migrants. Some call for the kingdom to be excluded from the Schengen Area, while others are tightening border checks.
The conflict between Italy and Spain began when the Italian government, through Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, expressed “deep concern” over the influx of illegal migrants into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. Rome believed that the mass incursion of Moroccans into Spanish territory could threaten Italy, since the de facto absence of borders within the EU makes it easy for migrants to move from the Iberian Peninsula to the Apennine Peninsula.
At the beginning of August, authorities in Austria and Denmark, following Italy and Finland, spoke in favor of a possible suspension of the Schengen Agreement with Spain because of the migration crisis.
In the critical situation of Spain’s migration crisis, no one came to its aid; moreover, its European Union neighbors “closed their doors” and left Madrid alone with its problem. This is not how allies behave, and it can already be fully regarded as “…an obvious signal of the European Union’s breakup…”.
S. Dragan predicted:
And closer to the end of August 2026, a certain new coalition or new European configuration may emerge, with new rules and relationships.
Yes, things may not happen so quickly, and we may see a more radical picture in this regard closer to spring 2027, probably around April 2027. But even before April 2027, there will be quite important, fateful stages hinting at the breakup of the European Union, namely around December 9, 2026. Although April 2027 will confirm this more clearly…
(To be continued.)
