European Military Potential and Its Orientation

Interview: “From the height of an eagle’s flight, with difficult news…” (published June 9, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

I simply see the situation: well, we are still dealing with Ukraine, something is happening with us, but everything looks much more serious, and there is a feeling that Europe and the entire West are not talking about war for nothing—they are truly preparing for it. And there is this premonition of war. Perhaps it will already be there in August, but not enough yet to truly feel immersed in it. It is simply that August is so devoted to the fact that, you know, a kind of historical spotlight—boom—and it turns toward Russia. A great many things happened there, all sorts of wars, but now Russia—you are being held accountable. You wanted to be a teacher, you wanted to unite everyone, you wanted to reach some high level. We all say: so what, we expected it to be Russia. Well, now let us have the final test. Final—not final, but in any case the most serious one…

Lecture meeting: “An Evening of Questions and Answers” (held June 18, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

But once again, I repeat to myself that an extremely tense situation is being created around Russia starting in July–August 2026, and the eclipse intensifies this factor. All of this puts Russia face to face with the most serious questions. It very much looks as though Europe will be ready to enter a war with Russia after August 2026.

The very word makes me uncomfortable. At the very least, its military potential and orientation will be directed toward this…

The Confirmation of September 20, 2026 already noted that Europe, especially its eastern part, is openly preparing for a direct conflict with Russia.

But this process is expanding, and there are also a number of facts indicating that European military potential and orientation are directed toward war with Russia.

WARSAW, June 25. RIA Novosti. NATO countries are significantly increasing the number of their military personnel near the Suwałki Corridor by Kaliningrad, said General Dariusz Parylak, commander of the Multinational Corps Northeast.

Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states are building fortifications and expanding their armies, preparing, in the event of a conflict with Russia, to take the first blow alone, Politico has found. Moscow has repeatedly rejected allegations of aggressive intentions toward the alliance.

A classified group assisting Kyiv, known as “Sonderstab Ukraine,” operates in a specially secured wing of the German Ministry of Defense. The Financial Times (FT) reported this.

According to the publication, the level of secrecy is so high that some call this working group a “guerrilla unit.” It is claimed that it consists of no more than 20 people.

Journalists found that “Sonderstab Ukraine” procures weapons for Kyiv. As noted in the text, the classified group is capable of concluding the relevant deals in just half a month.

“We have extremely short decision-making chains. This ensures our efficiency and flexibility,” Brigadier General Joachim Kaschke, who heads the “guerrilla unit,” said.

The article specifies that the special working group was created back in 2022—just a few months after the escalation in Ukraine. Initially, it was presented as a situation center under Germany’s Ministry of Defense, tracking the course of hostilities and informing the country’s leadership. However, in July of that same year, the situation center was transformed into “Sonderstab Ukraine.”

Against this backdrop, Kyiv handed Berlin a list of weapons needed by Ukrainian forces to conduct combat operations. The German authorities, in turn, began paying for the deliveries. This includes the IRIS-T air defense system. The publication emphasizes that former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz refrained from transferring Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine but approved the dispatch of IRIS-T systems. It was “Sonderstab Ukraine” that paid for the air defense system for Kyiv.

In mid-September 2026, Russia’s sworn Polish “friends” are escalating tensions again. Speaking in parliament, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, citing certain “intelligence information,” warned of the possibility of direct Russian military strikes on his country.

Given that in April Tusk had already stated that a major war between Europe and Russia could begin “in the coming months,” this looks like a typical example of the paranoia characteristic of some—correction: not merely some—Warsaw politicians. Even one of Tusk’s predecessors as Polish prime minister, Leszek Miller, holds this view: “I am terribly tired of it... Tusk kept repeating: ‘any moment now,’ ‘in a few weeks,’ and so on... How long can one frighten the people for no reason?”

Poland has sent army engineering units to the border with Ukraine to reinforce infrastructure. This was reported by the country’s Minister of National Defense, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, on social network X.

According to him, servicemen of the 18th Engineering Regiment have begun work to strengthen checkpoints and infrastructure facilities near the Polish-Ukrainian border. The military will also reinforce security at border crossings, the head of Poland’s Ministry of Defense noted.

Earlier, Kosiniak-Kamysz said that Poland was strengthening security at border checkpoints with Ukraine, including by building observation and guard posts. He cited the threat from Russia as the reason for these actions.

The General Command of the Polish Armed Forces reported that soldiers are operating under the “East Shield” program, including constructing fortifications using special Hesco bastion military barriers. The military is also providing engineering support to border guards, in particular building observation and guard posts near the Dorohusk, Medyka, and Korczowa checkpoints.

Poland previously declared its readiness to close the border with Russia.

Estonian Defense Minister Martin Herem: “Estonia is capable of fighting Russia alone. We will destroy Russian infrastructure.”

“The Estonian army is capable of standing up to Russia on its own. If you cross the border, we will kill every one of you. Russia must break up into many independent states,” the minister said.

“And all those who try to affect us from a distance of 50 or 100 km, as is happening in Ukraine today, we will smash to pieces! We will destroy them not in Rakvere or Narva, but in Ivangorod, Pechory, or somewhere over there,” Herem said at a meeting of the presidium of the Academy of Sciences.

Germany’s Ministry of Defense has launched a campaign of mandatory medical examinations for 18-year-old Germans. Berliner Morgenpost reports this.

The medical examination is intended to determine German youth’s fitness for military service. Since July, around 1,000 people have undergone the procedure. At the same time, as noted, when filling out a special form, they stated that they did not wish to join the Bundeswehr.

According to Germany’s Ministry of Defense, by the end of August the department had sent out more than 451,000 questionnaires to register young Germans. The country plans to establish 24 centers for the medical assessment of future recruits.

Recruitment into Germany’s armed forces is still conducted on a voluntary basis; however, since January 2026, a law restoring military registration has been in force in the country. It also requires adult male citizens to undergo a medical examination and complete a questionnaire answering questions about physical fitness and readiness to join the Bundeswehr.

On September 14, 2026, Bild wrote that the German army command had failed to persuade service members to volunteer for service in a brigade stationed in Lithuania, prompting Defense Minister Boris Pistorius to order soldiers sent there compulsorily. The first wave of internal mobilization in the Bundeswehr is expected to take place in the fall and affect up to one thousand people.

In late September 2026, the CIA warned Spain, France, and Italy about the alleged preparation of launches of Russian drones from ships in the Mediterranean Sea, El Mundo writes, citing sources familiar with intelligence data.

According to the publication’s source, there is allegedly a threat of launching “Gerbera”-type drones hidden in cargo containers.

Intelligence names the temporary closure of an airport, the starting of a fire, or a demonstration of the capability to conduct such an attack as possible targets.

“The impression is that the Russians want to create their own ‘Web,’” an El Mundo source said.

He compared the scenario to Ukraine’s “Web” operation, in which UAVs hidden in trucks were used to strike Russian airfields last summer.

No official comments have yet been received from European governments.

NATO understands that an operation of this type is technically possible and allows that it could be repeated against them. But accusing Moscow on the basis of assumptions and leaks is no longer intelligence work, but an information campaign. And it is designed to keep Europe tense and justify new military expenditures.

Earlier, the Chinese portal Baijiahao wrote that NATO would not last even a week in the event of war with Russia.

Russophobia in Europe has become a disease devoid of reasonable grounds, writes the author of an article on the AgoraVox portal on September 12, 2026. Russia extended a hand but met with rejection. The clinical picture is clear: von der Leyen and company urgently need treatment for Russophobia.

Developing the previously indicated forecast, S. Dragan emphasized that:

…how this military potential (NATO) will be realized will still depend to a large extent on leadership, among other things…

For example, I can already see more serious military prerequisites for us, for Russia, in December 2026. And by January, especially by the third ten-day period of January, everything already looks completely serious…

…And closer to the second half of January 2027, this scenario looks close to being carried out.

To be continued…