The imminent crisis in France. Autumn 2026

Forecast: “What the prospects for the European Union look like. Clarification regarding certain countries and leaders” (published August 6, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

…there (in France) an inevitable crisis will occur… starting as early as the end of August 2026…

Talk of a crisis in the socioeconomic sphere and a significant deterioration in the quality of life of French citizens became widespread in late summer and early autumn 2026.

On August 27, 2026, former Interior Minister and presidential candidate for the Republicans party Bruno Retailleau stated that the standard of living in France had fallen below the European average, and the country's citizens were facing unprecedented poverty.

During a debate at the “2026 Meeting of French Entrepreneurs” conference, the politician stressed that the current financial situation of the French is the worst in history.

“The Poles will catch up with us and surpass us in a few years,” he warned.

Retailleau linked the economic decline to the policies of the “left-wing” authorities, in particular the introduction of the 35-hour workweek. According to him, despite record spending on public services, the condition of schools, courts, and hospitals remains extremely precarious. The presidential candidate expressed confidence that the cause of the crisis lies not in a shortage of resources, but in the inefficiency of the system itself.

The crisis situation is also confirmed by sociologists' data. According to a survey by Elabe for BFMTV, about 80% of French citizens are forced to economize. Among workers and rank-and-file employees, this figure is 90%, while 59% of respondents among managers are financially constrained.

Two-thirds of French citizens gave a negative assessment of the results of President Emmanuel Macron's work in the economic sphere, according to the results of a study conducted in early September 2026 by CSA for CNews, Europe 1 radio, and the Journal du Dimanche newspaper.

CNews noted that the study was conducted at a time when France's public debt stood at about €3.566 trillion, equal to more than 117% of the country's GDP.

France is becoming Europe’s main debt problem. The Economist writes this.

On September 10, 2026, according to the publication, France was on the verge of a large-scale default. The country has neither economic growth nor fiscal room, and its public debt has already reached 118% of GDP. This threatens the stability of the entire European Union, since under the bloc's rules, all member states will be forced to bear collective responsibility for Paris's failures.

It is noted that other eurozone members are also mired in debt. However, according to the publication, the situation is further complicated by the fact that France under Emmanuel Macron ignored financial discipline for years, living by the principle of “after us, the deluge.” At the same time, experts warn: ordinary citizens of European countries will ultimately have to pay the multibillion-dollar debts of French officials out of their own pockets.

Rising public debt servicing costs could threaten the country's national sovereignty. This was stated on September 21, 2026, by Amélie de Montchalin, head of France's Court of Audit.

De Montchalin recalled that in 2026, France's public debt payments will amount to nearly €80 billion. This is significantly more than the budget of the Ministry of National Education—€65 billion—40% more than the armed forces budget, and six times more than the budget of the Ministry of Justice. According to her, by 2030, annual debt servicing costs could reach €100 billion or even more if government bond yields continue to rise. This, de Montchalin notes, could limit the state's capabilities and threaten its sovereignty.

In September 2026, France faced a fuel crisis, characterized by record price increases and supply disruptions at gas stations.

The main cause of the crisis was the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which disrupted oil supplies to global markets.

As of September 20, 2026, the average price of diesel fuel in France had reached a historic high of €2.41 per liter.

SP95-E10 gasoline rose to €2.17, while at some gas stations in the Strasbourg area, the price of premium fuel approached €3 per liter.

As of September 21, 2026, 17% of the country's gas stations were experiencing shortages of at least one type of fuel, with 91% of these belonging to the TotalEnergies network.

France's budget lost €407 million in tax revenue due to reduced fuel consumption.

Some owners of diesel vehicles in France switched to rapeseed oil.

Due to rising fuel prices, protests took place in France in September 2026: for example, on September 16, about one hundred people blocked an oil depot in Frontignan in the south of the country.

The situation in France could not help but affect the overall situation in Europe, as S. Dragan had warned:

And closer to the end of August 2026, some new coalition or a new European configuration may emerge, with new rules and relationships...

(To be continued.)