Clear signal of the European Union’s breakup. Is France on the verge of a split? AfD in favor of leaving the EU?
Forecast: “What the prospects of the European Union look like. Clarification regarding certain countries and leaders” (published August 6, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
And this is a signal that closer to August 12, 2026, there may be an obvious signal toward the breakup of the European Union…
Serious problems facing the European Union as a single organization, concerning the preservation of the Schengen Area and migration problems in the south of the EU, were already discussed in the confirmation of September 18 of this year.
But the signals toward the breakup of the European Union are not limited to a Spanish migration crisis alone.
What is extremely dangerous for Brussels is that these signals are coming from the EU’s leading countries—France and Germany.
“France has never been as hostile toward the EU as it is now,” EU officials complained in the summer of this year, calling the situation “critical.” Why are the French, under the strongly pro-Brussels President Macron, viewing the European Union increasingly negatively, and is France threatened with a scenario of leaving the EU?
Strictly speaking, Euroskepticism—that is, a negative attitude toward the EU and its policies—became noticeable in France several years ago. Back in 2024, Le Point journalists noted that the French were champions among Euroskeptics: only 34% said they trusted the EU, while the rest expressed either a negative or neutral attitude. By comparison, 69% responded favorably in Denmark, while 68% of respondents did so in both Lithuania and Portugal.
A survey this year revealed increased polarization: 38% of respondents in France have a positive view of the EU, but 29% view it sharply negatively, while another 31% are dissatisfied with the work of the European Parliament. As for approval of France’s EU membership, it stands at 53%, which is unfortunately far from the views of the Irish, 86% of whom are pleased that their country is a member of the European Union, as are the Danes and Swedes—85% each.
It cannot be said that distrust of the EU emerged out of nowhere: dissatisfaction with the fact that Eurocrats are incapable of adequately responding to current challenges, including uncontrolled migration, has been compounded by economic reasons. In particular, the MERCOSUR agreement imposed on France, which is more beneficial to Germany. However, there are other reasons for French distrust as well.
Former senior European Commission official Bruno Alomar, reflecting on whether “the French are anti-European or Europe itself is anti-French,” noted that despite local “whims” and crises such as the MERCOSUR agreement, the main issue is how exactly the EU treats France.
And in his opinion, the honest answer is this: “anti-French sentiment prevails in the EU.”
This is partly because France has historically not been inclined to accommodate others on issues fundamental to it—such as the development of nuclear energy or the war in Iraq.
Also, as Alomar noted, “Europeans view France as defeated in 1940, defeated permanently—and, as a consequence, any military or diplomatic claims on our part are considered illegitimate. Neither our diplomats nor our military can understand this at all.” Furthermore, Alomar claims that the EU seeks to “dilute major states in favor of smaller ones,” and that this, in his opinion, was why the United Kingdom once decided to slam the door and leave the union.
Being inside the system, Alomar had the opportunity to notice nuances inaccessible to ordinary citizens. But these citizens, from their own perspective, saw more than enough to fall out of love with the EU or, at the very least, lose trust in it. Nevertheless, when Emmanuel Macron, a figure quite acceptable to Eurocrats, came to lead France, the degree of Euroskepticism among the French did not greatly concern officials sitting in Brussels. Despite the fact that during Macron’s term, a strongly pro-Brussels politician, anti-European sentiment among his voters continues to grow.
But then 2027 appeared on the horizon, along with the election of a new French president. And not only is far-right Marine Le Pen, who has a very cool attitude toward the EU, leading in first-round polls. Depending on various configurations, she may receive between 29% and 31% of the vote.
And in that case, the current “signal toward the breakup of the European Union…” may turn into a real process of disintegration.
Along with France, Germany is the main pillar on which the EU rests. And the course of its further development also depends on who will direct that course.
Chancellor Merz is catastrophically losing his influence in the country, and new parties are moving into leading roles to replace the Christian Democratic Party, which nominated Merz.
The main one is the opposition party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD), which opposes not only Ukraine’s accession to the EU but also, moreover, considers its own participation in the EU inadvisable.
“Alternative for Germany” intends to seek full normalization of relations with Russia—the resumption of trade, oil and gas purchases, as well as an end to military aid to Ukraine. This was stated to Zvezdanews by Yevgeny Schmidt, a member of the 20th Bundestag from the AfD party.
“We advocate advancing our national interests. Before the Ukrainian conflict, Germany was the number one trading partner among Western countries for the Russian Federation. More than 4,000 German companies operated in Russia. We invested actively, so the entire sanctions policy struck Germany’s economy first and foremost among Western countries. They do not want to talk about this here, but that is nevertheless the case,” Schmidt explained.
Germany now “urgently needs cheap and stable energy supplies.” It is beneficial and vitally necessary for Germany to trade with Russia, which is why the party consistently advocates the complete lifting of anti-Russian sanctions and the restoration of economic ties, the lawmaker added.
“Now the government of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is adding fuel to the fire by trying to drag the country into someone else’s conflict. This runs counter to our security and prosperity. We must move away from the one-sided militant policy and propaganda that Merz is currently pursuing and open people’s eyes to the real interests of Germany,” Schmidt stated.
In his view, Germany’s economic model is export-oriented. It is necessary to maintain good relations with all countries and open all markets.
In addition, Schmidt explained that the AfD party advocates leaving the European Union. The organization intends to create a new bloc of European countries for further economic integration. Its plans include creating joint protection of external borders, a single economic space, and an independent policy within this union.
“We do not see any reform of the European Union. This structure has become so mired in corruption and self-serving practices that we say: under current conditions, the EU complies with no democratic norms. Brussels democrats are trying to usurp power and extend it over individual countries. Under these conditions, we say that we advocate leaving the European Union,” he commented.
However, Schmidt added, there is one “big but.” Germany is practically the European Union’s only major “donor.” While many other countries in the union only help redistribute the money.
“Essentially, we feed the European Union with our money. If we leave, this union will collapse in the near future. Without the German taxpayer’s wallet, this structure has no future. Therefore, we leave the European Union and immediately create a new bloc of European countries close to us in terms of their economic level,” Schmidt concluded.
The AfD’s opinion cannot be ignored due to the sharp rise in its rating in Germany’s political life and, accordingly, its subsequent influence on the European Union as a whole.
S. Dragan predicted:
And closer to the end of August 2026, some new coalition or new European configuration may begin to take shape, with new rules and relationships.
Yes, everything may not happen so quickly, and we may see a more radical picture in this regard closer to spring 2027, probably around April 2027. But even before April 2027, there will be quite important, fateful stages hinting at the breakup of the European Union, specifically around December 9, 2026. Although April 2027 will confirm this more clearly…
(To be continued.)
