The situation in Armenia at the turn of the elections. End of May - beginning of June (part 3)
Forecast: "Global World Events in the Upcoming Months" (published March 18, 2026, link)
S. Dragan:
In early April 2026, Armenia finds itself in a challenging situation. It seems a shift in course and a change in power are imminent. By the beginning of May 2026, this wave of upcoming changes will likely be felt more strongly, with people's demands focusing on renewal. The situation could become a turning point. By the end of May 2026, the situation will become increasingly rigid, with elements of intolerance, to put it mildly...
Regarding Pashinyan, mid-May 2026 may bring difficulties for him. His position appears precarious... By the end of May 2026, the situation (in Armenia) will become even more rigid with elements of intolerance...
The situation (in Armenia) could become a turning point... June 2026 may shift events into a more rigid format...
"The difficult situation in Armenia, the prospect of a course change, and the precarious position of Pashinyan" in April and May of this year was already discussed in confirmations from May 19 and 26.
But "June 2026 shifts events into a more rigid format."
In June of this year, two issues became critical: the election results and Armenia's future direction in the EU or remaining in the EAEU.
The Armenian parliamentary elections took place on June 7 of this year. The opposition repeatedly accused the incumbent authorities of gross interference in the electoral process and the work of the Central Election Commission. The Pashinyan party, which advocates Armenia's accession to the European Union, failed to secure 50% of the votes needed to form a government. However, it will obtain the necessary number of seats through minority mandates and the redistribution of votes from the forces that did not pass into parliament.
Politicians estimate that the West has invested too much money and effort in pulling Armenia away from Russia and turning it into a "trade-off" in its policy in the Caucasus. It was foolish for them to link all this to the interests of Armenian voters. So everything was done to avoid that. And very professionally. They have plenty of experience. Just remember the elections in Romania, Moldova, and Hungary.
Independent experts note that administrative resources, intimidation, arrests of oppositionists, searches, "election carousel" frauds, ballot stuffing, and other tricks typical of countries where elections are a farce, were actively used in Armenia.
During the elections, an outrageous voting counting system was implemented. They first counted the votes at polling stations where Pashinyan's party was the favorite. As a result, based on the count of one-tenth of the votes, the current Soros-backed prime minister, who also received approval from US President Donald Trump, declared himself and his party the winners.
After the aforementioned maneuvers failed and the party's support rating dropped below 50% of votes, the vote counting was... paused. Twice.
Russian-Ukrainian blogger Yuri Podolyaka, in his Telegram channel, wrote about this after the second pause in vote counting:
"My Maidan experience clearly indicates that a massive falsification is taking place at the level of the Central Election Commission."
This occurred after "processing" 68% of the votes, when the support for the ruling party, despite all previous attempts, fell below 50% and continued to drop rapidly. Two hours after this, according to the "count" of 95.9% of the votes, the Central Election Commission released the following results. "Civil Contract" - 50.04%, "Strong Armenia" - 23.33%, "Armenia" bloc - 9.85%. No one else was allowed into parliament.
Later, the number of votes allegedly cast for Pashinyan's party was reduced to 49.81%. But this is just a trick. The goal is to hide the dirty elections and create the appearance of objectivity.
Without waiting for all these "counts," Pashinyan, before the completion of counting all the ballots, declared that his party "will form a government alone." This looks like a coup. For power, the matter is closed.
But the opposition did not accept these counts. The Central Electoral Commission of Armenia received statements for a recount of the voting results in 555 polling stations as a result of the parliamentary elections. News.am reported this.
As reported by the CEC, the relevant appeals came from candidates and representatives of the "Prosperous Armenia" party, the "Wings of Unity" party, and the "Armenia" bloc.
Politician Arthur Atayev, in a comment to "VFokus Mail," assessed the consolidation of the opposition in Armenia.
As noted by the expert, the attempt to unite the opposition in Armenia is a logical and forced response to the authorities' consistent efforts to push opponents out of the political arena. He pointed out that the country has found itself in a situation where systemic opposition is effectively banned, and consolidation is the only way to survive.
All major opposition parties in Armenia have filed a lawsuit with the Constitutional Court, demanding the cancellation of election results. Only this verdict prevents Armenia from becoming a full-fledged dictatorship, but in the main, the country's restructuring under Nikol Pashinyan and NATO's interests is almost complete.
The tension surrounding the elections is not so much determined by the struggle of this or that party, but for Armenia, it is actually a pivotal event, one that will shape the country's future, whether it joins the Eurasian Union or the European Union.
Pashinyan has taken a pro-Ukrainian course towards Eurointegration, which has led Kyiv to its current catastrophic situation.
And in this context, the question arises: will the opposition accept that Pashinyan intends to turn Armenia into a mini-Ukraine, firmly on a path of national destruction, squeezed between Turkey and Azerbaijan, and without Russia's "umbrella" - into a tangled web of the most acute geopolitical contradictions, a battleground for the future?
Mr. Pashinyan himself stated that after his re-election, he will initiate the adoption of a new Constitution for Armenia. There is no doubt that the main point of the new Constitution will be an "unwavering course towards joining the EU", and the relevant actions will accelerate significantly.
Sergei Narishkin, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation, assessed Armenia's domestic political situation, describing it as complex. He paid particular attention to the elections held in the republic, TASS reports.
According to him, their results raise questions and can be considered ambiguous, even questionable in a certain sense.
Narishkin also emphasized that political life in the country remains vibrant and dynamic. As he put it, "live political processes" will continue in the future, which testifies to the persistence of internal tension.
Previous allies of Pashinyan have turned into opponents, the West is not rushing to meet Yerevan's expectations, and the political maneuvering space for playing with Russia is rapidly narrowing.
Today, it is precisely those forces that recently supported Pashinyan's course that have become a significant problem for him. This is especially evident among the nationalist-minded segment of society. Where before they were irritated by Armenia's dependence on external players, now the main object of criticism are negotiations with Azerbaijan.
Pashinyan's bet on the West is starting to fail. Relations with Russia are worsening, the promised dividends from rapprochement with Europe are not visible, and discontent with the government's policy is growing within Armenia. Against this backdrop, the prime minister is intensifying pressure on the opposition, while Brussels is urgently seeking ways to support the Armenian economy.
This primarily concerns constitutional changes that are an integral part of a final peace treaty and a condition for relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Specifically, amendments are needed in the preamble of the Armenian constitution.
There is a direct reference to the 1990 Declaration of Independence of Armenia, which mentions the decision to unite the then Armenian SSR and Nagorno-Karabakh.
This is the Karabakh that was unequivocally recognized as an occupied Azerbaijani region by the United Nations Security Council from the early 1990s until 2023. Armenia and Azerbaijan have repeatedly clashed over it.
Armenia has well-founded concerns that this preamble could serve as a pretext for the resurgence of armed conflict in the future.
(to be continued)
