Turkey's Political Trajectory in Early May 2026 (Part 3)

May 6, 2026 8 min read

Forecast: "Global World Events in the Coming Months" (published March 18, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

By early May 2026, specifically around May 2, 2026, certain crucial steps will be taken, determining the future direction in which Erdogan will move, and from which it will already be impossible to turn back…

As noted in the Confirmations of April 17 and May 1, 2026, Turkey remains a key player in the Middle East, and R. Erdogan continues to adhere to his principle: "When all bridges are burned, the mediator becomes the passage through which peace comes."

As S. Dragan predicted, "by early May 2026, specifically around May 2, 2026," media reports emerged about "…certain crucial steps that will determine the future direction in which Erdogan will move, and from which it will already be impossible to turn back…"

The President of Turkey (the Republic of Turkey), Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, addressed a meeting of the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) parliamentary group with a policy speech. In his address, he announced a comprehensive legislative package titled "A Powerful Investment Center for the Turkey of the Century" and outlined the country's strategic priorities for the coming years.

What does the concept of "Turkey's Century" mean?

The concept of "Turkey's Century" (Türkiye Yüzyılı - Türkiye Yuzyılı) is a central element of the current leadership's political and economic narrative. It encompasses a long-term development strategy for the state as a regional leader in production, trade, logistics, and foreign investment attraction.

Erdoğan emphasized that Turkey has already established itself as a "stabilization island" amidst global turbulence. According to him, recent international events have only confirmed the country's status. This reputational base is intended to underpin the new investment policy.

Key directions of the strategy

The President outlined several priority goals:

Turning Turkey into a global production center - this involves boosting industrial capacity and localizing production supply chains within the country.
Developing trade and logistics - Turkey positions itself as a key transit hub between Europe, Asia and Africa, and the new legislative package is intended to solidify this position.
Enhancing competitiveness - improving the business climate, reducing administrative barriers for investors, and creating a favorable legal environment.
Attracting foreign investments - creating conditions under which major international companies will consider Turkey as a priority location for capital placement.

Legislative Package: What Exactly Will Be Presented to Parliament

Erdogan stated that a comprehensive document, developed under the slogan "Strong Center for Investments in the Age of Turkey" (Türkiye Yüzyılı'nda Yatırımlar İçin Güçlü Merkez), will be submitted to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey (TBMM - ТБММ) in the near future.

The President did not reveal the detailed contents of the package, but the context of his speech allows for the overall direction to be determined. This concerns systemic changes in investment legislation aimed at making Turkey more attractive to international business.

Parallel to the announcement of the investment package, Erdoğan mentioned the continuation of a large-scale housing program. In particular, he reported on the drawing of lots for 500,000 units of social housing. This indicates that the social and investment agendas are seen by the country's leadership as complementary elements of a unified strategy.

Significance for foreign investors

Turkey has consistently worked over the past years to improve its positions in international business climate rankings. The new legislative package, as intended by its developers, is designed to:

Simplify registration and business management procedures for foreign companies.
Create additional incentives for setting up production facilities in Turkey.
Ensure legal protection for investments and predictability of the regulatory environment.
Strengthen the country's position as a logistics hub serving markets across multiple regions.

Political Component: Parliament and Opposition

A significant portion of Erdoğan's address was dedicated to the domestic political situation and the functioning of the legislative branch. The president sharply criticized the main opposition force, accusing it of intentionally blocking the legislative process.

Erdoğan stated the following:

«We cannot allow the main opposition to block parliament and hinder legislative activities. None of us, for any reason, has the right to disappoint the people's hopes.»

According to him, the ruling party's deputies are obligated to ensure the full and uninterrupted work of parliament - both in committee activities and during plenary sessions.

Address to Fellow Party Members

Erdoğan emphasized that every member of the parliament is accountable to all 86 million citizens of the country, regardless of their party affiliation. He called on fellow party members not to succumb to opposition provocations and to fulfill their legislative duties to the utmost.

The President also reminded that citizens expect tangible results from their representatives - implemented projects, built infrastructure, and solutions to pressing issues, rather than political maneuverings.

The Palestinian Issue in the Context of the Speech

Erdoğan's speech began with an emotional appeal to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The President expressed solidarity with the Palestinian people, calling the ongoing confrontation "genocide" and "barbarism" occurring under the "silent gaze of international organizations."

He quoted words attributed to Palestinian defenders of their land:

"If we remain silent, we will crush stones. If we starve, we will be satisfied with the earth, but we will never leave. Our blood is innocent, but we will not fear to spill it. Our past stretches before us, the present is within us, and the future is on our shoulders."

Erdogan assured that Turkey and the ruling coalition of the "People's Alliance" (Cumhur İttifakı - Jumhur Ittifaky) will unwaveringly support Palestine through prayers and concrete actions. This topic traditionally holds a significant place in the rhetoric of the Turkish president and reflects the country's foreign policy priorities.

Turkey in the Global Economic System

The context of the announcement of the investment package should be considered in a broader perspective. In 2025-2026, Turkey faced several serious macroeconomic challenges, including high inflation and the need to stabilize the national currency - the Turkish Lira (TL - TL).

However, the country retains several fundamental competitive advantages:

Its geographical location at the crossroads of three continents - Europe, Asia, and Africa - makes it a natural transit corridor for goods and capital.
A young and relatively large population forms a large domestic market and provides a labor supply.
A developed industrial base, primarily in the automotive, textile, construction, and defense sectors, lays the foundation for export diversification.
Membership in several regional economic unions and a customs union with the European Union (EU - EU) provide access to the largest markets.

What could the new package change?

If the announced legislative package is passed in the form suggested by the president's rhetoric, several consequences can be expected.

Increasing inflows of foreign direct investment into priority sectors, primarily in production and logistics.
Expanding presence of transnational corporations in the Turkish market.
An additional impetus for the development of special economic zones and industrial clusters.
Growing interest in Turkey from investors from the Gulf countries, Central Asia, and Russia, who view it as a convenient platform for accessing European and African markets.

What does this mean for Russia and the post-Soviet space?

For the Russian audience, Turkey's investment policy is of interest in several dimensions. First, Turkey remains one of Russia's key trading partners (Russia), despite the complex geopolitical situation. Second, the country has traditionally served as a platform for Russian businesses seeking international market access, given the sanctions restrictions. Third, the enhancement of Turkey's investment attractiveness may create additional opportunities for cooperation in trade, tourism, and industrial partnerships.

The announced package will be a significant indicator of how consistently the Turkish leadership is prepared to implement its ambitious plans to transform the country into a global economic center.

Professor Jiang emphasizes on May 1, 2026, that "Turkey is an indispensable player in the new world and lies at the intersection of three worlds and the interests of all great powers... Not the strongest, not the richest, but the one without which no major game works - that is Turkey today."

Turkey is likely to chart its course in the future, as Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has done before, by balancing between global and regional power centers.

"There will be neither a 'Western anchor' nor an 'Eurasian hub', but rather 'strategic ambiguity'. It implies: balancing between all; constant tension - a source of leverage; every crisis makes Turkey indispensable" - this, according to Professor Jiang, is the best option for Turkey.

But balancing between these worlds is becoming increasingly difficult for R. Erdogan, and he is increasingly reliant on the continuity of his power and the policies he conducts on the international and domestic fronts.

As for the near future, S. Dragans predicts:

...In essence, there is potential for military-political events to impact Turkey between July 9-18, 2026...

(more on the topic to follow)