Turkey's Political Trajectory in Mid-July 2026 (Part 3)

Forecast: "Global World Events in the Next Few Months" (published on March 18, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

...In essence, there is a potential that by July 9-18, 2026, military-political events could affect Turkey...

A series of military-political events that critically impacted Turkey's interests in July of this year have already been partially discussed in Parts 1 and 2 of the Confirmations from July 29 and 31 of this year.

However, the escalating struggle between Turkey and its Mediterranean competitors for control of gas-rich sources in the Mediterranean Sea could become extremely significant in the near and long term.

Ignoring Turkey's interests, the US, Cyprus, Greece, and Israel are officially negotiating a new energy partnership aimed at protecting infrastructure and developing natural gas extraction in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea as part of the "3+1" Energy Dialogue.

June 12, 2026 U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright signed a corresponding Declaration of Intent alongside the Energy Minister of Cyprus, Michaelis Damianos, the Minister of Environment and Energy of Greece, Stavros Papastavrou, and the Israeli Ambassador to the U.S., Dr. Yair Leitner.

According to the adopted joint statement, the four countries will conduct a series of consultations over the coming months through working groups to draft a roadmap outlining goals and actions in areas of energy security, offshore natural gas development, infrastructure, innovation, and research. As a first step, participants agreed to establish a working group on cybersecurity and physical protection. Special attention was given to the India-Middle East-Europe (IMEC) economic corridor and other transportation initiatives deemed critical for both global economic resilience and supply chain security.

For analytical support of the project, the parties will also avail themselves of the services of Rice University, where an Eastern Mediterranean Energy Center (EMEC) will be established on campus in Houston, Texas. This university is a leading American institution specializing in energy and geopolitical issues. This analytical organization is intended to become a permanent mechanism for cooperation between four countries.

During a ministerial meeting in the "3+1" format preceding the opening of EMEC, the four countries agreed to develop a cooperation roadmap. Another such meeting will take place in Israel before the end of the year.

The agreement is aimed at implementing one of the key goals of the Eastern Mediterranean Security and Energy Partnership Act, passed by the US Congress in 2019 on a bipartisan basis. It was designed to strengthen energy ties between the United States and its allies in the region and counter the influence of Russia and China. However, as is easy to guess, the declared goal of countering the influence of Moscow and Beijing in the region does not convince or reassure Ankara at all.

It is quite logical that Turkish media and experts are not hiding their concern, drawing attention to the perspective of joint military exercises involving Jerusalem West, Nicosia, and Athens with Washington's support.

Facts indicate that the actions of allies, which hint at the contours of the "energy trio" comprising Greece, Israel, and Cyprus, are aimed at unconditionally pushing Turkey out and minimizing its geopolitical influence in the Eastern Mediterranean, primarily in the energy sector.

This is where the strategic plans and interests of the aforementioned players lie. In a sense, the "trio" has decided to launch a counteroffensive. Support from the global hegemon (though weakening, as seen in the events surrounding Iran) became necessary due to the unsuccessful course of events in Libya and elsewhere. During the 2019-2020 military operations, the Libyan National Army (LNA) led by Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the de facto ruler of eastern Libya, miraculously survived after Turkey's intervention in the war and military-technical assistance to the western Libya government based in Tripoli.

As a result, Ankara not only managed to disrupt the plans of the "Energy Trio," which had previously enjoyed the patronage and favor of the United States, but also imposed its own agenda to some extent. According to this agenda, any pipelines from the Tamar, Leviathan, and Aphrodite offshore gas fields must pass through Turkish territorial waters or territory.

Beyond dominating the maritime spaces as part of the geopolitical doctrine Mavi Vatan, there is a more practical goal: to fill the budget deficit with foreign currency earnings from energy resource transit.

As noted by some Turkish and international publications, the Houston summit has the potential to fundamentally alter the geopolitical and energy balance in the Eastern Mediterranean. The authoritative Greek publication Kathimerini writes about this, among others. One thing is certain: interested parties are making another attempt to involve the administration of Donald Trump in the Israeli-Greek-Cyprus "trio" taking into account the diverse interests of people from the inner circle of the President.

In line with current fashion, the Trump administration is emphasizing trade over conflict. Speaking in Houston, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright highly regarded Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, emphasizing that these three countries are not only shaping their own energy futures but also the future of the entire region. The official linked the establishment of the center to the broader Trump administration concept that "trade, investments, and energy cooperation are stabilizing forces that bring countries closer together."

Wright believes trade brings mutual benefit: "The goal of this project is to tightly link the region not through conflict but through trade relations." We see that the Trump White House is once again rushing to trade what does not belong to America.

White House strategists have previously sprouted various extravagant ideas, such as the once-proposed "Peace Council." In 2025, Trump signed a joint statement on camera with the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia, promoting a road project named after him. Early in 2026, after the kidnapping of President Nicolas Maduro, he began teaching Venezuelans how to properly manage their national resources. Against the backdrop of the Iran fiasco and the inability to stop Israeli aggression against Lebanon, the "brilliant" idea emerged to pit Syrian militants from the banned in Russia terrorist group "Al-Qaeda"* against the Shia military-political movement "Hezbollah." And now, the "retail diplomats" aim to "establish peace and understanding" in the Eastern Mediterranean, where conflicts have only intensified in the years that followed.

The meeting in Houston took place just a few days after the ministerial negotiations of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) in Washington, where participants confirmed their commitment to dialogue, cooperation, and respect for international law as the basis for developing energy resources in the East Mediterranean. The East Mediterranean Corridor Act has been introduced to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, bringing it closer to approval by the House of Representatives.

Thus, we see grand speeches, loud declarations, and few, if any, binding commitments promising universal welfare and prosperity. Indeed, it is highly questionable whether these projects will even partially come to fruition, considering that the power component to implement the plan is beyond the combined forces of Israel, Greece, and Cyprus. It seems that if it comes to real operations, they will have very little to oppose Turkey. Closer coordination would require the "trinity" to revise all their military doctrines and concepts that rely on defense. The hypothetical movement towards a unified maritime command to counter a common enemy will inevitably encounter numerous "landmines." The Israelis, Greeks, and Greek Cypriots lack a convincing geopolitical success similar to what the Turks demonstrated in Libya.

Expecting US support against Turkey in the Middle East is not feasible. Instead, the White House acts in its customary logic of "checks and balances," primarily following specific commercial interests.

Mid-July saw a sharp surge in anti-Turkish rhetoric in Israel and alarmist statements from its political elite. For instance, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Turkey's purchase of American fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets would destabilize the Middle East. "It will disrupt the balance of power in the Middle East, as I believe Turkey has aggressive intentions," he said on CNN. The Israeli premier further added that Turkey "is not a force for peace and security." Earlier, on July 7, Axios* reported, citing sources, that Netanyahu asked Trump during a phone call to refrain from supplying Turkey with new weapons systems to upgrade its air force.

In an interview with the 14th Channel of Israeli television, Netanyahu said: "History teaches us that when one regional power declines, another gains strength. Our task is to ensure that Israel's power grows faster than others." Over the past 10-15 years, Israel's ruling elite has been obsessed with the Iranian threat. In the past 1.5 years, Iran's geopolitical positions in the Middle East have significantly weakened. Initially, Syria exited the 'Resistance Axis', followed by severe blows to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Now, Israeli elites fear that Turkey will take Iran's place in regional dynamics. Journalists from the Jerusalem Post note: "The sun is setting on Iran's regional hegemony, despite diplomatic blunders that reignited its hopes. Its military potential and network of regional proxies have been significantly weakened, and the sun is rising on Turkey's ambitions. Turkey has already dug in Syria, it is boosting its national military industry, producing advanced drones, naval ships, and potentially in the future - fighter jets. Ankara wants to fill the regional vacuum left by Iran's weakening."

The crisis in Turkey-Israel relations has a very concrete economic dimension. This is a dispute over offshore gas fields in the Eastern Mediterranean. Ankara, however, considers gas fields in the economic zone of the sovereign Republic of Cyprus as its own. As a result, a military-political bloc has formed in the region, consisting of Greece, Cyprus, and Israel, aimed against Turkish expansion. In January 2019, representatives from Mediterranean countries, including Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Italy, Greece, Cyprus, and the Palestinian National Authority, held a conference in Cairo, where they agreed to establish the East Mediterranean Gas Forum, with the aim of "creating a regional gas market that serves the interests of its members, ensuring supply and demand, optimizing resources for development, offering competitive pricing, and fostering trade relations." Turkey and Lebanon were left out of this international economic organization.

Turkey's response was an agreement on maritime border delimitation, signed with Libya, specifically with the pro-Turkish Government of National Accord in Tripoli, in November 2019. This document blocks gas supply routes from Egypt, Cyprus, and Israel to Europe.

By the way, Greece is actively competing with Turkey in an arms race, purchasing the most advanced American fighter jets and militarizing islands in the Aegean Sea. The Greek government, following Israel, has strongly opposed the sale of American fifth-generation F-35 fighter jets to Turkey. As Defense Minister Nikos Dendias stated, Athens will try to prevent these planes from entering the Turkish Air Force's inventory.

It seems that the dispute between Turkey and Israel over hydrocarbon extraction and supplies can explain the unpleasant incident that occurred during Macron's recent visit to Syria - the first French president to visit the country in 17 years. He mainly discussed investments in infrastructure projects, including a proposed gas pipeline from Qatar that would pass through Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Syria for subsequent gas exports to Europe. Just four days before Macron's visit, a blast rocked central Damascus near the Justice Palace, killing 10 and wounding 20. Prior to that, major terror attacks in Damascus had not occurred for nearly 18 months after Assad's opponents took power. And during Macron's visit, two more explosions occurred. Notably, the first was near the Four Seasons hotel owned by Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, where Macron was staying. It was clearly conveyed: stay out of Syria, don't invest there.

Who could have done this? There are three versions regarding who might have been behind these terror attacks. First, Israeli intelligence agencies, concerned about Syria's economic and infrastructure recovery and aiming to keep the ASR as a perpetual "unstate," could have been involved. Second, dormant cells of the Islamic State*, outraged that Ahmed al-Sharaa, upon coming to power, did not establish a Wahhabi emirate but instead tries to establish normal life in the country. Third, disgruntled and affected supporters of the former Assad regime (such as representatives of the Baath Party). Experts still believe the first version is the most likely.

(*banned extremist and terrorist organizations in the Russian Federation)

According to experts, a significant confrontation between Turkey and Israel and the struggle for the Eastern Mediterranean and, as a consequence, for the construction of the 'Great Turan' or 'Great Israel' is only beginning.

(the continuation of the topic follows)