Turkey's Political Trajectory in the Middle East War (Part 2)

Prediction: "Global World Events in the Next Few Months" (published March 18, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

By April 23, 2026, provocative games around Erdogan will intensify, and he himself may be very maneuverable. Around April 26, a coalition of influential leaders will gather around him, forming a new political format and plan.

Confirmation on April 17, 2026, already considered the implementation of predictions about the activities of R. Erdogan and "political games" around him with the start of the war in the Persian Gulf.

In the second half of April, the situation in Turkey did not become simpler, but rather escalated.

As predicted "... by April 23, 2026, provocative games around Erdogan will intensify."

On April 21, 2026, Ursula von der Leyen stated: "The EU should not be under the influence of Russia, Turkey, and China."

Deciphering her words, experts noted with surprise that European Commission President puts Russia, China, and Turkey on the same level as EU opponents.

He (EU) also needs to change the decision-making principle, believes Ursula von der Leyen.

Europe needs to completely rethink itself. Such a statement was made by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen at an event marking the 80th anniversary of the newspaper Die Zeit, the publication reports.

According to von der Leyen, she supports further expansion of the EU. «We need to achieve the completion of the formation of the European continent so that it is not under the influence of Russia, Turkey, or China. We need to think bigger and more geopolitically», stated the president of the European Commission, answering questions from Die Zeit readers.

She reported that EU competitiveness has so far been based on cheap energy from Russia, cheap labor from China, and cheap defense from America. «This is over. We need to completely rebuild. We need to defend the security of our continent ourselves. We need to become more independent,» said von der Leyen.

Provocative actions against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan were also evident in his exclusion from the informal summit of European Union leaders, which began on April 23 in Cyprus. According to European sources, the demonstrable cooling of Brussels towards Ankara is attributed to the rapid rapprochement between the Turkish administration and Tehran in the midst of the crisis in the Middle East.

The official Nicosia, which is chairing the EU Council in the first half of 2026, is hosting the heads of state and government of the community on April 23 and 24. However, the Turkish President, unlike the leaders of Lebanon, Jordan, Egypt, and Syria, did not receive an invitation.

Cyprus' Minister for European Affairs, Mariella Raona, commenting on the situation, referred to "unclear geopolitical circumstances," refusing to provide further details.

According to information obtained by Euractiv from high-ranking officials, the main catalyst for the shift in sentiment in Brussels was Ankara's close ties with Tehran. Sources in the margins emphasize that Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, in essence, took on the role of a mediator for the Iranian regime in an attempt to resolve the regional conflict.

Sources claim this directly contradicts the overall line of the European Union, which seeks to isolate the Iranian government on the international stage. Additionally, diplomats note that Turkey's unstable economic situation is also seen as a risk factor by the EU.

The intrigue surrounding Erdogan's absence unfolds against the backdrop of a recent high-profile diplomatic scandal. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously placed Turkey in the same category as Russia and China, describing them as global challenges to the EU, which sparked sharp criticism from former President of the European Council Charles Michel.

Challenges in relations are exacerbated by historical context: Cyprus remains divided after the 1974 Turkish military invasion, and any engagement with Ankara is a highly sensitive topic for local authorities. While NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte takes steps to smooth over tensions, the current EU move highlights the depth of the rift in relations with a strategic but problematic partner.

However, Erdoğan, like any "Eastern leader," is flexible in his political maneuvering.

In response to Brussels' political move, as predicted by S. Dragen, “he (Erdoğan) can be quite maneuverable as well. Around 26.04.26, he will gather a coalition of influential leaders around him, forming a new political format, a plan.”

On April 24, 2026, Turkey and the United Kingdom signed a framework agreement on strategic partnership during a visit to London by the Republic's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.

"The United Kingdom and the Republic of Turkey today signed a new framework agreement on strategic partnership, marking the beginning of a new era in our bilateral relations. It lays a solid foundation for strengthening dialogue and cooperation between our countries as NATO allies and strategic partners. The agreement reaffirms our intention to boost bilateral trade and investments, including through ongoing negotiations to modernize the free trade agreement," a joint statement by the foreign ministers of the two countries, released by Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, reads.

It is noted that the signed agreement "will enable enhanced cooperation in addressing common challenges to promote global security and prosperity, expand cooperation and coordination within NATO, including strengthening the European dimension. It will also contribute to 'enhancing defense capabilities and industry cooperation, strengthening cooperation in counter-terrorism and organized crime, and developing humanitarian cooperation'."

The statement notes that "the accelerating global shift towards a multipolar, fragmented international order poses heightened risks for the UK and Turkey." "NATO, the cornerstone of our security and collective defense, has increased its political and military significance. NATO's strategic concept, as well as deterrence and defense as its core task, will continue to underscore our cooperation in ensuring security in the Euro-Atlantic region. Strong Transatlantic relations are essential for peace and stability in Europe," the statement reads.

However, it's important to understand that cooperation with the UK is a political alliance and with those countries that stand behind London.

Turkey remains a key player in the Middle East and as predicted by S. Draga:n

And by the beginning of May 2026, specifically around 5/2/26, certain crucial steps will be taken that will define the future direction of Erdoğan and from which he will not be able to deviate...

...In essence, there is potential that by 7/9-18/26, Turkey will be affected by military-political events...

(more on the topic to follow)