War in the Gulf and Signs of Market Collapse (Part 3)

Forecast: "What's happening behind the doors of pseudo-negotiating processes" (published on October 29, 2025, link)

S. Dragan:

... and the result of his (Larry Fink) plan will be most recognizable around the area of 4.04.2026. When it will be understood that his efforts were not in vain, according to the plan he aimed for...

Today, American globalists are offering Trump to distract the world from Epstein files and other uncomfortable questions. Even the release of some "UFO mysteries" that Americans love is being used. However, a new war is the best way to "mask the polluted air" in the Oval Office.

And if Trump decides the Iranian problem, it will help him come to China as a triumphator and give him a strong position at the negotiations. But those who gave him such an order understand very well that bombing Iran will not change its power. Their main task is to block the Strait of Hormuz. For this automatically triggers an economic crisis worldwide, which will most affect Asia and Europe.

Trump has found himself in a situation where he cannot extricate himself from the conflict and, in attempts to share responsibility, he is demanding NATO's intervention. He says, "Let's help me clear the shipping lanes in the strait." But he doesn't really need help. He needs political support and, preferably, a statement from European leaders that he is the victor in this situation. That's why Trump is trying to drag the EU into war.

However, the forces of transnational corporations and American globalists who have been shooting at Trump and who are behind it all, want the Strait of Hormuz to be blocked for as long as possible, and a crisis to sweep across the Earth. For, as a result of this crisis, they will, as they have done before, devastate entire countries, buy their state sovereignty, companies, resources, and other national treasures. And even if they fail to buy a country, it will still lead to the desired deterioration in the standard of living worldwide and increase demand for the weapons they produce.

A crisis is the steps they are used to climbing. Remember both World Wars, from which they profited. To not look too far ahead, consider Ukraine, fully bought by transnational corporations, whose shares belong to the largest Western investment funds - BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street. Since 2014, they have bought Ukraine lock, stock, and barrel: the land, minerals, energy, industry, ports, and even the Ukrainians, pushing them into debt. They are essentially rounding up Ukrainians in the streets and sending them to die for the interests of their international investment funds and their transnational corporations.

Similarly, the largest Western investment funds - BlackRock (and of course, directly Larry Fink), Vanguard, and State Street plan to buy the Middle East.

According to some experts, the true reasons for the war in Iran lie in the struggle between American and English financiers. "US Marines are going to occupy the UAE, not Iran, and accordingly, take what previously belonged to Britain."

Another reason is to find ways to reduce US debt. Creating a debt-free zone will lead to a drop in the dollar and, accordingly, a sharp "devaluation" of it. They accumulated a dollar mass of government bonds and reduced US government debt.

Perhaps controversial reasons, but time will tell.

According to the International Energy Agency, this is the largest energy crisis in history.

Any statements by the US president affect market fluctuations, primarily the prices of oil, gas, gold, and cryptocurrency.

Asian stock markets opened on Thursday, April 2, 2026, with a sharp drop. Investors reacted with sales as geopolitical risks intensified after tough statements by US President Donald Trump on April 1, 2026, about the situation in the Middle East. Trading data and analyst comments confirm the overall negative trend.

By 7:45 Moscow time, the Chinese Shanghai Composite was down 0.53%, reaching 3927.6 points. Shenzhen Composite fell 1.17% to 2547.14 points. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index dropped 1.24% to 24,981 points. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 declined 1.16% to 8570.9 points. Japan's Nikkei 225 tumbled 2.35% to 52,474.5 points. South Korea's KOSPI suffered the most significant losses, plummeting 4.15% to 5251.1 points.

US President Donald Trump disappointed the public with his national address. Everyone was expecting signals from the politician to de-escalate tensions in the Middle East, but he only confirmed his intention to finish Iran. This led to a decline in global markets, with oil prices rising by 7%.

Brent crude oil showed the largest one-day price jump in the past three weeks. Global stock markets crashed simultaneously, with Asian exchanges taking the biggest hit, as they are reliant on Middle Eastern fuel supplies.

Oil prices resumed their sharp rise after U.S. President Donald Trump's address on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, failed to meet investor expectations. Instead of announcing an end to the war with Iran, the American leader threatened even more powerful strikes that could send the Islamic Republic "back to the Stone Age." Tehran, in turn, shows no flexibility and continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial logistical artery through which about 20% of global oil trade previously passed.

In this context, a paradoxical situation has arisen on the market: the nearest futures contracts are trading significantly higher than the more distant ones. The price of June Brent oil futures soared by 8%, to $109 per barrel, while May WTI American futures jumped by over 11%, reaching around $112. At the same time, June WTI contracts are significantly cheaper - around $98.

The physical oil market showcases an even more striking anomaly. The cost of Dated Brent (oil with a fixed delivery date) reached $141 on Thursday, surpassing $140, the highest level since 2008. Additionally, Iranian oil is trading at a premium to Brent for the first time since May 2022, signaling market concerns about disruptions in supplies from the region.

The gap between spot prices and futures reflects growing risks of an immediate shortage of physical oil. Investors are pricing in the uncertainty of the timeline of the Middle East conflict and are willing to pay a premium for access to fuel now, while long-term contracts appear to be a safer bet for a gradual resolution.

The situation in the Middle East continues to wreak havoc on global markets. Experts note that if the conflict persists, a shortage of physical supplies could drive prices even higher, making it difficult to predict current limits.

April 5, 2026 saw an extraordinary speech by D. Trump, in which he, no longer holding back the use of profanity, threatens Iran and demands it open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

And the markets responded to this 'speech' the very next day.

Trading opened with a gap up on Monday. The current high is at $111.89. Buyers were unable to break through the last resistance at $112.12. A breakout trade began. Experts predict another geopolitical trigger for new price impulse movements.

Can we assume randomness, rather than control by the curators of the US President, the timing and content of D. Trump's speeches, and that someone from his closest circle does not utilize these exercises, which in this case are hard not to call "exercises" for the managed collapse or rise of the market in the midst of war to gain an advantage. As for the scale of these preferences, few can even guess today.

They also create opportunities for those who "guess" or definitely "know" the decisions that the American leadership will take. It has become a tradition that within half an hour to an hour before his loud statements on the stock exchange, a strange game begins that brings millions and billions of dollars. Who and how is making money out of chaos, correspondent of Izvestia Natalya Oskerko found out.

Live music, food, cocktails. In the center of the hall - a huge globe with world news, and on the screens - quotes and news flashes.

This is a new bar near the White House. Here you can bet on the outcome of real events. Its Washington branch was opened by the cryptocurrency platform Polymarket, so-called "truth exchange".

Policy, Trump quotes. And cheers after another strike on Tehran. Everything, like at the races or in baseball, but the subject of the bet is real life. And users approach actions in the Middle East as some kind of game. In four weeks of conflict, the volume of bets exceeded 250 million dollars! The most popular questions now - when the US will conduct a land operation against Iran and the date of the ceasefire.

Eight users bet $70,000 each, the potential payout is almost 12 times more! War has made predictive markets a mass entertainment.

But not everything is okay in the polykingdom. Journalists noticed strange bets that appear suddenly - right before major events - and bring millions of dollars to players. For example, several users won huge sums on the capture of Venezuelan President Maduro.

And six newly created accounts stole two million dollars, predicting the first US strike against Iran. One user placed a bet 71 minutes before the official announcement of the attack, when the market was only giving a 17 percent chance of this event. Officials from Trump's circle were first under suspicion.

"Government officials are using your tax dollars to fund wars, which they then bet on, using insider information to make massive profits," users of the network are outraged.

Bets only grew further. 15 minutes before Trump's announcement of productive talks with Iran, someone started mass-selling oil. Before it lost value.

Iran rejected the negotiations and put forth its hardline demands. But the most important thing happened. Someone made a lot of money. And Tehran also noticed this trend.

"No talks with the US took place, and fake news is being used to manipulate financial and oil markets and get out of the crisis that the US and Israel are in," explains Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

But how does this affect the wealth of the family of the American president? Here, Barron, his son, bought shares in oil companies two days before the bombings started. His brother Eric has invested in military drone production. And another, Donald Jr., is one of the main investors and a board member of Polymarket.

"These are people in Trump's circle, members of his family, his closest allies, because they have access to exclusive secret information. They control the White House, the most influential office in the world, and their logic is: since we have this information, why not get rich?" - shared former NYT journalist John Varoli.

In the US, there is a separate law for politicians that prohibits the use of non-public information, specifically for officials and members of Congress. However, the fine is only $200, like for illegal parking. And throughout history, no one has ever been punished. After these incredibly timely transactions during the Iran war, only a reserve soldier in the Israeli army was punished. He warned several traders about the upcoming bombings.

"When it comes to oil prices or betting on the PolyMarket, I'm not sure what rules even apply," economist Charles Ortell expressed.

PolyMarket's trading volume has already reached eight billion dollars, while its competitor stands at nine and a half! And as long as the war continues, their stocks keep rising. So, what America wants from Tehran is now less important. The stakes in this global game are high enough to forget about goals and focus solely on means.

Considering this, and the presence of several other hidden factors, we can make a preliminary conclusion that all of Larry Fink's actions were not in vain, 'the efforts were not in vain, according to the plan he aimed for.'

But as S. Dragen predicts:

...all these exercises for Trump could create a very complex situation. In these conditions, we will be able to observe how his actions will appear completely inappropriate on the outside...

...there is a strange contradiction when Larry Fink's calculations look more successful and his specialty - risk reduction and transition to a new economic course - appears more productive during this period...

(the continuation of the topic follows)