New levers of pressure on Russia

Forecast: “From the autumn of 2026 into the future. Russia, the United Kingdom. The royal family as a signal of global change. From 2026 to 2032” (published August 26, 2026, link)

S. Dragan:

Most likely, this will be connected with new sanctions or the search for new levers of pressure on Russia. This may become noticeable around September 4–8, 2026. It may involve a series of individual, highly aggressive events, especially close to September 4, 2026. These provocations may be military and destructive in nature, as if trying to prompt Russia to take retaliatory action.

“The search for new levers of pressure on Russia” became clearly more apparent among the collective West in early autumn 2026.

“This became noticeable around September 4–8, 2026.” In early September of this year, relations between Russia and Germany reached their peak of negative tension.

The suspension of the Consulate General in Bonn, the closure of the Russian House in Berlin, and stricter entry rules for Russians — on September 4 of this year, Germany announced new measures against Russia.

The day before, on September 2 of this year, German authorities officially accused Moscow of attempting a terrorist attack at Leipzig Airport. The incident occurred in early August. At that time, a drone carrying explosives was discovered in the secured area of the airport, near a Ukrainian An-124 aircraft.

At the same time, German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt clarified that the country was not at war with Russia.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski stated that the foreign ministers of EU countries would discuss further steps during their meeting in Ireland. The situation will also be reviewed at a NATO Council meeting.

But even Reuters acknowledges that it cannot be said that Germany has presented a complete body of evidence. However, nothing is stopping Berlin from moving from words to action already now. For example, it could announce new anti-Russian sanctions, tougher than those the EU plans to approve.

One German political scientist allowed for a complete severance of cultural ties between Russia and Germany.

Berlin’s provocative and unsubstantiated actions “prompted Russia to take retaliatory action.”

In Moscow, the accusations were called baseless, and it was stated that Germany was pursuing a course of further escalation of tensions and would “receive a worthy response.”

The Russian side will take retaliatory measures in response to the unfriendly steps of the German authorities. This was stated on September 4 of this year by Russian Ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechaev.

“They certainly will be taken. We do not leave such things unanswered. I do not want to get ahead of myself. They will be announced literally in the coming days, if not hours,” he said.

The diplomat called the actions of the German authorities toward Russia over the UAV incident in Leipzig a provocation.

Later, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that all branches of the German Goethe Institute in Russia would be closed in response to the German authorities’ decision to halt the work of the “Russian House” in Berlin.

At the end of the first ten days of September this year, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski called on NATO to conduct “aggressive exercises” near the Kaliningrad Region. He said this at a forum in Kyiv, European Pravda reports.

He stressed that Warsaw is watching this region very closely. The minister added that, according to his information, there are “virtually no troops” there.

“I propose that we conduct exercises so aggressive on our side that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be sure exactly what we will do. And so that because of this he has to redeploy part of his forces from Ukraine,” Sikorski said.

Earlier, former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Antanas Valionis threatened the seizure of the Kaliningrad Region. “Many times, at different levels, we have heard and spoken this one rational thing. At the beginning of any acute phase of any conflict between NATO and Russia, the entire power of the Kaliningrad region will be preemptively destroyed,” he noted.

Two days later, on September 14 of this year, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said on CNN that his country could win “quite quickly” in the event of a hypothetical Russian attack.

Russia’s response to these statements by the Polish foreign minister was harsh.

Two brigades would be enough for Russia to take Warsaw. This is how State Duma deputy Andrey Zhuravlyov responded to statements by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski, Life.ru reports.

Zhuravlyov compared Sikorski’s statements to the rhetoric of Third Reich leader Adolf Hitler and added that in reality the Polish authorities are not so strong. “I am sure that for him to change his mind, it would be enough for a Russian fighter jet to fly somewhere near Polish airspace,” the deputy said sharply. He added that Moscow could, if it wished, take Warsaw with small forces.

If Europe attacks Russia, the war will be different and very short. This was stated on Wednesday, September 16, by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

He recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken of Russia’s unwillingness to attack Europe.

The West also did not stop imposing “new sanctions” against Moscow, the total number of which, together with those imposed earlier, has long exceeded the total number of Western sanctions against Iran and North Korea.

During the period indicated by S. Dragan — the first half of September this year — Washington was actively preparing for Congress to approve a new package of “hellish sanctions.”

The U.S. House of Representatives approved “hellish sanctions” against Russia. The bill, which had previously passed the Senate, will now be sent to Donald Trump for signature. The president is to receive the authority to impose tariffs of up to 500% on all Russian goods. Tariffs of up to 100% are separately specified for those who purchase Russian energy resources. These are primarily China, India, and Turkey. The document was supported by 262 members of Congress, while 159 voted against it.

U.S. President Donald Trump signed the bill passed by the U.S. Congress to tighten sanctions against Russia. This was stated in a release posted on the White House website.

According to the statement, on September 18 the American leader signed a bill “providing for the imposition and expansion of sanctions, tariffs, and prohibitions against Russia, as well as extending the existing sanctions against Iran.” Thus, the law entered into legal force.

Responses to the “hellish sanctions” came not only from Russia but also from many other key countries directly and indirectly affected by these sanctions.

Key importers of Russian energy resources sharply criticized the U.S. Congress-approved bill on new sanctions, which is awaiting the signature of President Donald Trump. Politico reports this.

In response, India stated its intention to defend its national interests, while China called the initiative an illegal manifestation of extraterritorial jurisdiction. Moscow stressed that such measures would only prolong the settlement of the conflict.

Experts also note the selective nature of the U.S. president’s powers, which make it possible to grant concessions to individual trading partners while simultaneously putting pressure on European allies.

Hungary is asking the United States not to impose additional tariffs on it because of its purchases of Russian oil and gas under the “hellish sanctions” law. This was reported by Márton Gajdu, head of the foreign affairs committee of the Hungarian parliament, following a visit to Washington.

In September this year, the European Union also did not relent in its sanctions zeal.

On September 1, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called on the EU to impose the “most extensive sanctions” against Moscow.

The newspaper Politico, citing sources, reported that the EU intends to include about 1,600 individuals and legal entities in a new package of anti-Russian sanctions.

EU ambassadors on September 14 of this year agreed to extend anti-Russian sanctions for only one week in order to resolve disagreements over the restrictions. This was reported by the EUobserver portal, citing diplomats.

The existing EU “blacklist,” which includes about 3,000 Russian individuals and legal entities, requires all 27 EU members to agree to renew it every six months. The list was due to expire on September 15.

The publication noted that first Slovakia and then France proposed removing Russian businessman Alisher Usmanov from the restrictions list, but the other 25 countries did not agree with this proposal. As a result, on September 14 EU ambassadors in Brussels decided to extend the sanctions list for only one week, until September 22, something that had not happened since the beginning of the conflict in Ukraine.

“This means that we will agree to disagree with each other for one week,” an EU diplomat said.

A source in French diplomacy told the publication that Paris has a “specific national security issue,” and France would like to “respond positively” to an appeal from its international partners concerning Usmanov. The media outlet suggested that the words “international partners” could refer to Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan.

On September 13, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha called on Europeans to impose a full trade embargo against Russia, ban Russians from entering the EU, and tighten sanctions against Russia’s military-industrial complex.

The West’s sanctions policy “prompted Russia to take retaliatory economic action.”

On September 17 of this year, President Vladimir Putin issued a decree transferring stakes in the Russian companies Nestle and Auchan to temporary external management by Lev Management JSC.

The Kremlin linked the seizure of Russian assets belonging to Swiss food giant Nestle and the French supermarket chain Auchan to European military aid to Ukraine.

“These are companies, European companies from unfriendly countries,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said. “One of the factors taken into account in making this decision was that this is an unfriendly country and that this unfriendly country is currently participating most actively in military actions against our country.”

This is the largest seizure of foreign corporate assets in Russia since at least 2024. It comes amid deep tensions in relations with Europe, which has imposed sweeping sanctions against Russia and is sending tens of billions of dollars in weapons and financial aid to support Ukraine.

According to data from the Russian registry, Lev Management JSC was registered in Moscow in 2024 with a share capital of only 15,000 rubles (US$177) and one employee. Before the decree was issued, it was little known to the general public.

Nestle shares fell 1.9% at the start of trading on September 18, reaching a three-month low.

The Kremlin’s actions underscore the increasingly difficult business environment facing international companies that remain in Russia. More than a thousand businesses have left the country since the war began, and Moscow has been subjected to several rounds of international sanctions.

Nevertheless, many major companies, including PepsiCo, Mondelez International, and Raiffeisenbank International, continue to operate in Russia amid tightening restrictions, though they have reduced the scale of their operations.

Continuing this forecast, S. Dragan noted:

This is a time — September–October — of heightened military tension in the military confrontation with Ukraine. Ukraine itself will suffer critical destruction around September 6, 2026. This will critically constrain Ukraine, turning its own aggression against itself. The time is dramatic and critical for this state — one could say it is finishing it off. Although serious compromising material against Russia will be built up afterward, with attempts to introduce highly unfavorable sanctions or rules complicating financial and logistical matters.

To be continued...